Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Really though I would follow up on that dream soon.....life seems to give us such a short window for exploring other places well and then other priorities come along and it is so much harder.

As a child I was lucky to see a lot of the States and, of course, most of Western Canada. As a young adult I got to see the true frontier of North America....the Arctic: Inuvik, Tuk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuktoyaktuk , Kugmallit Bay and I drove on the Arctic ocean.

Do it!

[Comanche]

Can anyone dumb this statement down a little for me? Does this mean it warms back up late in the period or gets cold? #needwxfordummiesnow

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

"Zonal jets still do exist this winter -- Pacific jet screams at 205 knots late in GFS forecast period."

[cheezyWXguy]

Can anyone dumb this statement down a little for me? Does this mean it warms back up late in the period or gets cold? #needwxfordummiesnow

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

"Zonal jets still do exist this winter -- Pacific jet screams at 205 knots late in GFS forecast period."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A-iKl6vCQAE6yYy.png:large

Doesn't mean either. hes commenting on the pacific jetstream, over near japan where the pink coloring is, which represents speeds of 200+ knots, which is insanely fast.

[Comanche]

Doesn't mean either. hes commenting on the pacific jetstream, over near japan where the pink coloring is, which represents speeds of 200+ knots, which is insanely fast.

I saw that, but does that lead towards a strong downstream Pac Jet, creating a zonal flow again, a return to crappy warm weather?

[Ntxw]

I saw that, but does that lead towards a strong downstream Pac Jet, creating a zonal flow again, a return to crappy warm weather?

Here's what I see from it. It's not in the eastern Pacific (last year). Central Pacific block forces the storms north around it, so we get the benefit of systems without the torch.

[Comanche]

I saw that, but does that lead towards a strong downstream Pac Jet, creating a zonal flow again, a return to crappy warm weather?

Here's what I see from it. It's not in the eastern Pacific (last year). Central Pacific block forces the storms north around it, so we get the benefit of systems without the torch.

I don't think I can handle another warm winter, doesn't have to be excessively cold or anything, but a repeat of last years pattern (which we have exceeded in Dec already), would make me ka-razeeeee. Fearing the warmth....

[Ntxw]

0z Euro is something to behold, looks like a Texas snow in the making (though hard to tell with intervals). What a fun run right? Very cold and very stormy. A lot more suppressed than other runs of it and GFS.

[Ntxw]

Eyeballing the QPF and 850 temps, maybe 2-4 for the metroplex on it?

[weatherguy425]

http://i45.tinypic.com/5ciwky.gif[/img][img]http://i48.tinypic.com/wt7uxv.gif

Eyeballing the QPF and 850 temps, maybe 2-4 for the metroplex on it?

Take it however you wish, but JB feels this run may be far-fetched. However, could this be in response to continued negative AO/NAO activity, as well as an up-tick in the prediction of a +PNA? Tele-connection ensembles have been far too positive so far with both NAO and AO values, and for once models seem to be sticking with the idea of a +PNA come 12/29-1/2.

[Ntxw]

Take it however you wish, but JB feels this run may be far-fetched. However, could this be in response to continued negative AO/NAO activity, as well as an up-tick in the prediction of a +PNA? Tele-connection ensembles have been far too positive so far with both NAO and AO values, and for once models seem to be sticking with the idea of a +PNA come 12/29-1/2.

It will change, many more times . I did see the +PNA after this system, AO isn't going anywhere but negative I believe so don't trust the models when they try to force it positive, it hasn't happened. We've had 3 tanks when the ensembles kept trying to get it the other way.

[weatherdude1108]

CRAZY right now! Gusty winds outside just just woke me up. Thought i'd quickly report before trying to go back to sleep. Blowing against house and window screens. Tall trees in greenspace next door swaying, taking a beating! Hoping they stay upright! Gusts to 32 so far at Camp Mabry from what I got. (The NWS site is loading slowly.) Dewpoint dropped from 67 to 11 in three hours (humidity from 84% to 13%)! Going to be chilly later!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY
DECIDE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. TO
DETERMINE A POTENTIAL TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW...THE LATITUDE OF THE
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN BE USED...AS UPPER LOWS TEND TO FOLLOW
BOUNDARY OF COLD/WARM AIR. THEREFORE THE ECMWF FOLLOWS THE FRONT
AND HAS A TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...AND BRINGS RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE
GFS ACTUALLY PULLS THE SHALLOW FRONT NORTHWARD CHRISTMAS DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DOESNT BRING THE COLDEST AIR INTO
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ALL PRECIP WOULD BE OVER BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE
SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTS...AND AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE SOLUTION
PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTH. IN SUMMARY...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN
PLAY THAT WILL DETERMINE THE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH TEXAS
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...AND IT WILL ALL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS TROUGH IS DEEP AND
FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE...ALLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY
TROUGH REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEN THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHALLOW AND WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS...AND SNOW CHANCES
WOULD BE ZERO. FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WILL FORECAST COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT MEXMOS IS FORECASTING FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT
WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...


...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH BEGINNING TO BE PUSHED
EWD BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SLY FLOW RETURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL START TEMPS ON A
WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL LAST UNTIL OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY...WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY FOR SW AR/N LA. A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE EURO BRINGING THE FRONT COMPLETELY
THROUGH OUR REGION...AND THE GFS STALLING IT SOMEWHERE OVER US.
THE 00Z EURO LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S 00Z RUN OF
THE GFS...AND THE 00Z GFS LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S 00Z
RUN OF THE EURO. SO...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN THE EXTENDED. AT ANY RATE...BOTH BRING A
STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS N TX ON TUESDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/. THE TROF
IS OPEN AND COLDER ON THE EURO...AND CUT OFF AND WARMER ON THE
GFS. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND/OR WINTRY WEATHER IS STILL
VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR. HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY THIS PORTION OF
THE FCST CONSERVATIVELY...WITH THE HOPE THAT THE MODELS WILL BEGIN
TO SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. /12/

[iorange55]

0z Euro SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

06z GFS.......ah, what they heck?

Edit:

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012 ... -die?lite=

[SouthernMet]

Great discussion by FTW NWS.. Here is the key imo : "MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE
SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTS...AND AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE SOLUTION
PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTH"

That goes for all the model huggers clinging to every flip and flop.
Like Wxman pointed out, it's a classic model mistake. Fwiw same thing happened with Snowpocalypse. So everyone just calm down and look at the setup.. Euro is trending better already and we are getting close to getting a peak from the NAM. Give it another day or 2 before the models pickup on it... If they ever do.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

behold wind direction ......Dec 22 to Dec 25th.


Hoping for a bit more oomph comes with it though (for your folks' sake).

[Portastorm]

With all of this talk about next week ... I think this week's cold front felt slighted! Fairly dramatic post-fropa weather here in Austin with winds 25-30 and gusts to the low 40s and unofficial gust reports near 50 mph. Numerous, scattered power outages around town as well as structure/brush fires. Busy morning for our first responders, unfortunately. Oh yeah, about a 26-degree temperature drop since midnight. We're sitting 44 degrees at 6:40 a.m.

[iorange55]

With all of this talk about next week ... I think this week's cold front felt slighted! Fairly dramatic post-fropa weather here in Austin with winds 25-30 and gusts to the low 40s and unofficial gust reports near 50 mph. Numerous, scattered power outages around town as well as structure/brush fires. Busy morning for our first responders, unfortunately. Oh yeah, about a 26-degree temperature drop since midnight. We're sitting 44 degrees at 6:40 a.m.

You aren't kidding! It must have felt like the poor middle child that always gets ignored. The wind has died down a bit here, but it was crazy all night! Leaves, tree limbs, Rudolph's red nose...it's all scattered in my yard. I'm just trying to figure out how to break the news to Santa.

[Portastorm]

Sad story there iorange55. Sounds like you might need a little Christmas magic to get it back together!

About next week -- I took a look at the 0z ensemble means for both the GFS and Euro. At 144 hours, the Euro is definitely further south and slower with the low than the GFS. The GFS ensemble mean does place the low along the Red River and that is a little further south than what its 0z operational run shows. The Euro ensemble mean meanwhile have the low near Lubbock at that same time frame.

While I would love to see the Texas Snow Miracle Storm progged by the 0z Euro op run, I am still skeptical of any op run until this weekend. As the pros have told us, don't count on anything until Saturday and probably Sunday. Nevertheless, paying attention to the 500mb pattern progged by the model runs is important to give us an idea on what pattern/flow we'll be dealing with.

[wxman57]

Speaking of heat a little off topic. I think there's a misconception about wxman57 on here! He doesn't like cold, but he does like snow! You guys should go back to some of the older threads like back in December 2009, if there's a good chance of it in Houston he will be the first to jump on it. In short, our resident heat miser has an inner kid that most of us usually do not see most people don't remember this!

That is true. The only good use for cold is to make snow. If it's not going to snow, the temperature might as well be 90 degrees.