Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

While I believe North Texas will get some snow out of this system around Christmas, the system I'm getting excited about is around the New Year. The jet is finally starting to set up shop across the southern US and with plenty of cold air/snow cover just to our north for the foreseeable future, the true fun and games should begin for the Texas winter in about 10 days


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[dhweather]

I've been in the DFW area since 2006, left the coast after Katrina. It's been drought here five of those six years, and it's really taking a mental toll on a lot of people. Water restrictions, lakes dried up, landscaping dying, it's bad. Red flag warnings, wildfires and such are becoming the norm and not the exception.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

New Years time shows a major ice storm in Texas.

[Portastorm]

And the GFS still can't make up its mind! It seems to be struggling a lot with this storm. It looks like it's a little colder than the 0z run, but it also looks like it drives the storm down south. It looks like Oklahoma would be the only one getting some light snow after the front.

Wow . . . it's almost comical how different the 12z GFS run is as compared to its 0z run, just 12 hours earlier. If anyone had any doubts about how badly the GFS is struggling with this pattern, check out the differences between the two.

I'm not saying the Euro is any better at this point but I only looked at the GFS differences. But I will remind you that King Euro constantly scores much better in the 5-day and 6-day skill scores than any other model.

[HouTXmetro]

Double Post, GIG' EM!

[HouTXmetro]

New Years time shows a major ice storm in Texas.

New Years time shows a major ice storm in Texas.

I'm not buying it. These models never seem to verify in these parts that far out.

[weatherdude1108]

Yep. I don't think people here should get too worked up over any particular scenario the Euro or GFS paints for us until this weekend's model cycles. Look at them, analyze them, get some entertainment value and then move along to something else.

I know one thing ... I'm getting real tired of these dry frontal passages. If things don't change soon, the fire weather season this winter here in south central Texas will be something awful and I shudder to think about next summer.

You took the words right out of my mouth (or from my keyboard in this case) Porta! I'm really concerned if this keeps up what Summer will bring us. But, it only takes one tropical storm in the right places to fill up the lakes and quench the land. Here's hoping! I'm still -removed-.

[orangeblood]

Canadian coming more in line with the 0Z Euro and now the 12Z GFS....this storm has some similarities to the snow Apocalypse of 2010 - the upper air pattern at least. Wouldn't expect anything near that magnitude but interesting similarities none the less!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

New Years time shows a major ice storm in Texas.

New Years time shows a major ice storm in Texas.

I'm not buying it. These models never seem to verify in these parts that far out.

Well the pattern IS changing... what's hard to forecast is the precip. I am confident it will be chilly to downright cold in these parts around New Years.

[weatherdude1108]

I've been in the DFW area since 2006, left the coast after Katrina. It's been drought here five of those six years, and it's really taking a mental toll on a lot of people. Water restrictions, lakes dried up, landscaping dying, it's bad. Red flag warnings, wildfires and such are becoming the norm and not the exception.

I feel your same pain dhweather.

[iorange55]

And the GFS still can't make up its mind! It seems to be struggling a lot with this storm. It looks like it's a little colder than the 0z run, but it also looks like it drives the storm down south. It looks like Oklahoma would be the only one getting some light snow after the front.

Wow . . . it's almost comical how different the 12z GFS run is as compared to its 0z run, just 12 hours earlier. If anyone had any doubts about how badly the GFS is struggling with this pattern, check out the differences between the two.

I'm not saying the Euro is any better at this point but I only looked at the GFS differences. But I will remind you that King Euro constantly scores much better in the 5-day and 6-day skill scores than any other model.

Right? It's having a very hard time with this storm, but so are the other models. Even the CMC is throwing out a different scenario with every run it seems.

Hopefully tomorrow they settle down a bit.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man, a NYE full fledged ice storm from Dallas down to the northern burbs of Houston on the 12z fun run ... hope it comes true.

[Ntxw]

Canadian abandoned GFS' ship to cruise with the Euro

[MSUDawg]

Man, a NYE full fledged ice storm from Dallas down to the northern burbs of Houston on the 12z fun run ... hope it comes true.

No offense I hope it doesnt. Ice storms are bad any time. but a ICE Storm on NYE? That just makes a disaster scenario.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not seeing that at all.... I see the system coming in on NYE and the cold weather after that, but on NYE the 540 line is almost to Kansas. I understand that it doesnt show temps at the surface but where are you seeing the surface temps being below freezing? That would have to be an extremely shallow air mass. Thanks

[Ntxw]

Im not seeing it either thickness does show some snow along the Red River LaLaLand, not seeing profiles for ice

[iorange55]

On the 12z GFS it looks more like a cold rain than ice. Perhaps mid-to upper 30s? And then as NTXW mentioned, in la-la land it shows some snow from North Central Texas to the Red River.

[orangeblood]

Majority of the 12Z GFS ensembles agree that there will be a big storm moving out of the southwest US around New Years, what some of them don't agree on is the amount of cold air available...I would bet that they'll go to a colder solution as they see more of the cold air and snow pack getting established across the lower 48

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Should be quite the snowpack after the midweek storm next week.

[WacoWx]

SWS out of Wichita Falls:

...SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

WITH ONLY FIVE DAYS LEFT BEFORE CHRISTMAS...ONE THING TO
KEEP IN MIND IS THE WEATHER FORECAST. A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF
THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CHRISTMAS DAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL
HOW MUCH AND WHAT AREA MAY RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW...IF ANY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF RECEIVING ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL AROUND
CHRISTMAS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF CURRENT FORECAST AND HAVE A
CONTINGENCY PLAN.