Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Yeah, all it took was me saying that I didn't expect any changes!

It's considerably wetter, we just need to work on driving that cold air down...which shouldn't be an issue.

Biggest difference I saw was the GFS moved the low across central Texas instead of North Texas. If we can get it to cut off the 5h low a little deeper the moisture would wrap around much tighter and south.

[iorange55]

Yeah, all it took was me saying that I didn't expect any changes!

It's considerably wetter, we just need to work on driving that cold air down...which shouldn't be an issue.

Biggest difference I saw was the GFS moved the low across central Texas instead of North Texas. If we can get it to cut off the 5h low a little deeper the moisture would wrap around much tighter and south.

It's definitely a step in the right direction. I have a feeling someone in North/Northeast Texas and/or Oklahoma into Arkansas will be in for a surprise (heavier snowfall accumulations)

[Ntxw]

Yeah I feel good about at least telling the Red River posters they have a very good shot at snow. Most of the guidance also puts 20-30mph winds post frontal so the blowing snow forecast from the NWS has some merit.

Edit: Anyone seen Texas Snowman lately? I haven't seen him post since the tropical season

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'm right on the red river. I hope this pans out!

[Ntxw]

That is one heck of a +PNA signal on the GFS the days leading up the new year~ and the return of the PV to North America, oh my...

[Ntxw]

How about we take the Canadian to the bank and call it a good run?

[Turtle]

It's 12/22/2012 now and the world didn't end!

But on topic, the 00z GFS does look wet and cold. It looks like at least a trace of snow - 1"+ across all of the OK/TX border.

[somethingfunny]

FWD's latest discussion is filled with encouraging words

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FINALLY STARTING TO AGREE FAIRLY WELL
WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO VARY A
BIT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WE HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
MODIFICATIONS TO POPS OR PRECIP TYPE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. SO IN SUMMARY...EXPECT SHOWERS CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A MIX
OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING OF THE 25TH BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH STRONG AND GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WE FEEL THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD BE
WET AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT HAS OUR ATTENTION AND THAT
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH ARCTIC INTRUSIONS SINCE THEY
PROPAGATE ON THEIR OWN WEIGHT. THEREFORE....CAREFUL SURFACE
ANALYSIS MUST CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IF THE COLD AIR
DOES ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PROGGED IT COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS
TO THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEPER AND SLOWER
UPPER LOW...LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST IN LINE
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED VERY
CLOSELY.

Now I'm no meteorologist, but I'm just saying... have you ever seen a winter cold front that didn't arrive ahead of schedule?

[iorange55]

I knew the models would come around! They're all showing heavier amount of precip, as well! It looks like we could be in for a nice treat on Christmas.

And then another storm after that? Possibly.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS..

...THE FRONT IS FCST TO SAG WELL S OF OUR REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY COME BACK NWD
AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG LEE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. MODELS STILL IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
INVERTED SFC TROF TO DEVELOP ACROSS S TX EARLY TUESDAY. AS FAR
AS ANY SEVERE THREAT IS CONCERNED...PROGS OF THE SFC LOW TRACK
ARE TO THE S AND E OF OUR REGION...KEEPING US ON THE COOL AND MORE
STABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-
SEVERE AND ISOLATED AT BEST. THE BIGGER TOPIC OF DISCUSSION SEEMS
TO BE THE WINTER WEATHER ASPECT OF THE FCST. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S...WITH THE GFS ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. AT ANY RATE...IT SEEMS MORE
CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION LATE
CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELYHOOD OVER OUR SW AR COUNTIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A
BRIEF STOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM...WITH NEAR-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

[gpsnowman]

I will be just outside Marshall Texas for Christmas so that is a good sign. I would hate to miss any snow here in DFW while I am away. Come on snow!!!!!!!

[orangeblood]

That is one heck of a +PNA signal on the GFS the days leading up the new year~ and the return of the PV to North America, oh my...

Yeah, that's a classic Cahiirs connection signature showing up on the 8-10 day GFS...opening up the flood gates for the brutal Siberian Air to come pouring over to this side of the globe. All signs are pointing towards a brutally cold January across the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any thoughts on the 12Z NAM?

[iorange55]

Any thoughts on the 12Z NAM?

It looks to be a little north with the system, but it's still in the long range for the NAM. 12z GFS is rolling out now...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any thoughts on the 12Z NAM?

It looks to be a little north with the system, but it's still in the long range for the NAM. 12z GFS is rolling out now...

I concur with that! It'll be interesting to see what the GFS shows.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS not too much different. We seem to be working with lower heights than the 0z. 2 key factors here, one is the point where the vorticity goes neutral tilt to negative over Texas, Lubbock-Texarkana is what it shows. In other words how far south it digs and when it turns is very important! 50-100miles shift in any which way makes a big difference as we saw back in 2009!

[iorange55]

12z GFS not too much different. We seem to be working with lower heights than the 0z. 2 key factors here, one is the point where the vorticity goes neutral tilt to negative over Texas, Lubbock-Texarkana is what it shows. In other words how far south it digs and when it turns is very important! 50-100miles shift in any which way makes a big difference as we saw back in 2009!

This will be a storm you have to watch to the very end, which seems to be the case for almost every winter storm down here. Just once I'd like to have an easy winter storm around. Two feet of snow for everyone in the state!

[Ntxw]

This will be a storm you have to watch to the very end, which seems to be the case for almost every winter storm down here. Just once I'd like to have an easy winter storm around. Two feet of snow for everyone in the state!

That will never happen . We sit over the state where storm systems get going thanks to the rockies and gulf. It's like we're the transit hub, they all come and then head in different directions

[dhweather]

Well, the system is just offshore on the pacific northwest coast, so we hopefully we will get some "real" data into the models for the 00Z run.

[DonWrk]

What exactly will be effecting the north or south track of the low?