Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Snowman67]

If you North Texans want to take a break from analyzing every nook and cranny of the models regarding your possible Christmas storm, and for the rest of us looking for hope for the upcoming winter, check out Larry Cosgrove's latest. It's bound to bring a smile to *most* of your faces.

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-22-2012-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-1

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-22-2012-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2

I've only looked at the 850mb temps on the GFS, but it seems that most of the cold air around the new year is east of Texas at this level. Are these fronts supposed to be shallow in nature, thus bringing colder temps to the surface? Just wondering since the GFS is actually showing some pretty warm temps at the 850mb level.

[weatherdude1108]

If you North Texans want to take a break from analyzing every nook and cranny of the models regarding your possible Christmas storm, and for the rest of us looking for hope for the upcoming winter, check out Larry Cosgrove's latest. It's bound to bring a smile to *most* of your faces.

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-22-2012-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-1

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-22-2012-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2

Wow! Potentially exciting for most of us for sure!

[Ntxw]

While the American models are unchanged tonight, the UKmet and Euro have some big differences. Much more compact and strong system slowing down over North Texas. Euro has heavy snowfall (excess of 5+ inches) just along and north of I-20 including the metroplex on northeastward.





^ That is near blizzard conditions for the Red River valley. Lets see if this is a trend with a few days to go.

[ravyrn]

I think we can all agree (with the exception of the Heat Miser) that the Euro is the best outcome

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Has anybody looked at the 06Z NAM? Insane snow amounts across Oklahoma.

[GaryHughes]

What's the latest for North Texas?

[iorange55]

Latest from DFW NWS

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE STRENGTH...
TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW. IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTH
TEXAS WILL BE IN FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS WITH MORNING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY QUICK BUT GOOD CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS A
VERY DYNAMIC AND FAST MOVING SYSTEM SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM FORCING SINCE A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR WOULD RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH REGARDS TO THE THERMAL PROFILE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE INCOMING OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY. WE WILL INCREASE POPS WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO A VERY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

CMC and the Euro look the best for snow around here. We'll see if the GFS comes around, or if it continues with the fast and north track. Should be interesting and either way we should see snow on Christmas.

Will it be significant snow? Who knows.

[TexasF6]

What about Austin? I wanted this to be OUR storm! I want my Christmas snow....dammit Jim! I want my snow!!!!!

[TexasF6]

MEXMOS offers slight hope! Wednesday....Conditional probs...Yes, I am grasping at straws...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MEX/

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

King Euro!!!

[TexasF6]

CLOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
406 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-232200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
406 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVING
CHRISTMAS DAY...

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW...

1. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS. BE PREPARED FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER CONDITIONS.

2. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. A
LITTLE MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
TEXAS...SO TRAVELERS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

3. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS DROPPING
WIND CHILL READINGS TO NEAR ZERO. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING AWAY FROM
YOUR HOUSE FOR THE HOLIDAY...MAKE SURE YOUR PIPES...PLANTS...AND
PETS ARE PROPERLY PROTECTED.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A TASTE OF WINTER BACK TO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO AREAS OF THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER
...MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...SO
TRAVELERS HEADING NORTH AND EAST SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK ROADWAYS.

THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 0 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. A PATH
FARTHER SOUTH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY...AND PERHAPS A CHANCE OF ICY CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. RESIDENTS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AS WE APPROACH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

[wxman57]

I think we can all agree (with the exception of the Heat Miser) that the Euro is the best outcome

Hey, I don't care if Dallas is buried in snow. I just want some warmer weather in Houston. Speaking of Dallas, check out the Euro 24hr snow map below. 00Z has a band of 8-10" south of the Red River with the bullseye just NE of Dallas. I added the approximate locations of Dallas & Ft. Worth. Snow starts after noon Christmas and ends Christmas night. Up to 5-10 inches (10-15mm liquid) for Dallas. Lesser amount in Ft. Worth. I wouldn't count on these amounts yet, but it's looking more likely that those of you up in the D-FW area will see it snow during the day on Christmas. I think south-central Texas doesn't have much of a shot at any snow (like Austin area).

[Dallasaggie01]

I think we can all agree (with the exception of the Heat Miser) that the Euro is the best outcome

Hey, I don't care if Dallas is buried in snow. I just want some warmer weather in Houston. Speaking of Dallas, check out the Euro 24hr snow map below. 00Z has a band of 8-10" south of the Red River with the bullseye just NE of Dallas. I added the approximate locations of Dallas & Ft. Worth. Snow starts after noon Christmas and ends Christmas night. Up to 5-10 inches (10-15mm liquid) for Dallas. Lesser amount in Ft. Worth. I wouldn't count on these amounts yet, but it's looking more likely that those of you up in the D-FW area will see it snow during the day on Christmas. I think south-central Texas doesn't have much of a shot at any snow (like Austin area).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow.gif

Do you have a meteorgraph(sp?) showing the precip/temp over the hours? I'm driving home from College Station on Christmas night and woul love to now when to plan to leave.

[Snowman67]

I think we can all agree (with the exception of the Heat Miser) that the Euro is the best outcome

Hey, I don't care if Dallas is buried in snow. I just want some warmer weather in Houston. Speaking of Dallas, check out the Euro 24hr snow map below. 00Z has a band of 8-10" south of the Red River with the bullseye just NE of Dallas. I added the approximate locations of Dallas & Ft. Worth. Snow starts after noon Christmas and ends Christmas night. Up to 5-10 inches (10-15mm liquid) for Dallas. Lesser amount in Ft. Worth. I wouldn't count on these amounts yet, but it's looking more likely that those of you up in the D-FW area will see it snow during the day on Christmas. I think south-central Texas doesn't have much of a shot at any snow (like Austin area).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow.gif

Looks like fun for those in north Texas. Can you give your input about cold temps in early part of Jan. for much of Texas. I've read quite a bit on this, however looking at the 850mb forecasted temps, it shows fairly warm air at those levels. Are we looking at shallow type air masses coming Down?

[Ntxw]

Looks like fun for those in north Texas. Can you give your input about cold temps in early part of Jan. for much of Texas. I've read quite a bit on this, however looking at the 850mb forecasted temps, it shows fairly warm air at those levels. Are we looking at shallow type air masses coming Down?

Don't worry about the surface features on the long range models. The cold air is there in Canada and Alaska, believe me when I say this, more than we need for a dive. The 500mb pattern is one that can drive it south, the models change run to run at the surface especially in low resolution. They won't see it until it's closer, take this week for example, just last week showed no more than a 40s day and some 20s in Dallas. Now DFW has the potential to not get above freezing on MOS data and lows could dip into the teens.

[wxman57]

Do you have a meteorgraph(sp?) showing the precip/temp over the hours? I'm driving home from College Station on Christmas night and woul love to now when to plan to leave.

No meteogram, but looking at the 3hr snow predictions on the euro, there's none in Dallas at noon Christmas and quite a bit by 3pm on Christmas. In fact, most of the snow in Dallas appears to fall between about noon and 6pm. Temps appear to be around 30-32 during the heavier snow.

[Ntxw]

I see differences in the 12z NAM. It's showing a much more pronounced baroclinic zone (the tighter 0c to -10c line) and you see a much sharper turn of the storm like the Euro. Though at the surface it appears it takes the storm further north, this sharp turn is showing that it's trying to adjust to the set up shown by the Euro, which actually isn't too far from what they showed 6-10 days ago!

[iorange55]

I see differences in the 12z NAM. It's showing a much more pronounced baroclinic zone (the tighter 0c to -10c line) and you see a much sharper turn of the storm like the Euro. Though at the surface it appears it takes the storm further north, this sharp turn is showing that it's trying to adjust to the set up shown by the Euro, which actually isn't too far from what they showed 6-10 days ago!

Exactly what I was thinking. I'm glad people that are smarter than me (like you) are on this board, so I can confirm some of the thoughts that go on in my little brain.

Another Christmas miracle might be coming! Man, what are the odds!

[Ntxw]

Exactly what I was thinking. I'm glad people that are smarter than me (like you) are on this board, so I can confirm some of the thoughts that go on in my little brain.

Another Christmas miracle might be coming! Man, what are the odds!

It's looking eerily similar to the events that unfolded leading up to the 2009 Christmas eve blizzard but just a bit further south and east of that storm.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What is currently outside my front door and what I plan on sending your way..........
(The pillars will be nicely covered by tonight).



Hope you folks (all the way down to Houston) are prepared.

It may not come on Christmas day for one and all down there but we do have a looooooooooooooong winter ahead.

Will be sending those temps you wished upon me too (as much as possible)