WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Sea surface temperatures are very warm over Central Philippines

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Convection is being removed from the center due to strong shear, 93W is done unless it can form another LLCC at where the deep convetion is

It is moving west-northwest at 15 kts (JMA). So its center should be relocated.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/a.html

[dexterlabio]

sheared it is but right now you can actually see where its center of circulation really is, based on recent satellite loops. the shear will most likely chop off any cloud tops from its center, so the warm SST's will be its only aid for it to continuously produce convection.

haha and JMA was first again to give warning on this. and JTWC doesn't give it a medium or even a low possibility of it being a TC. I actually agree, this looks more like a TD than a disturbance IMO.

The JMA is the RSMC so we can call this now as a tropical depression. I wonder if PAGASA will follow. (PAGASA mostly follows JMA in upgrading systems)

[supercane4867]

It is moving west-northwest at 15 kts (JMA). So its center should be relocated.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/a.html

LLCC is still at somewhere near Palau shown on the windfield analysis

[dexterlabio]

if we're going to follow the standard in this part of the world (WPAC), this is officially a TD.

[Meow]

if we're going to follow the standard in this part of the world (WPAC), this is officially a TD.

And it is a TD having high possibilities to become a TS.

[euro6208]

that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,

64.8 km/h sustained eastward winds were observed in Korror, Palau. It means that 93W’s LLCC is located south of Palau, and 93W has tropical storm-force winds.

Link ???

no link so it must be false...please don't give us false information if you can't back it up...

[euro6208]

I'm surprised JTWC haven't mentioned this area plus dvorak showing nothing...looks to be 1.0...

93W FLOATER

[RobWESTPACWX]

Merry Christmas eve everyone, only wish there was fair weather in light of this storm system.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVufiiY37yk[/youtube]

[supercane4867]

JTWC belives 93W has being sheared apart and not mention it at all, on the other hand JMA upgraded it to a TD
So one of them must be wrong

[dexterlabio]

not necessarily that one of them must be wrong. i'm thinking maybe this evening there will be a word from the JTWC. JTWC is a well-trusted agency and I believe they will see any important developments from this system.

It's hard for me to think though that the center is still in Palau with the convection sheared well away to the northwest...because the cyclonic turning is associated with the convection and is evident on visible sat loop. i agree with the JMA position on this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC belives 93W has being sheared apart and not mention it at all, on the other hand JMA upgraded it to a TD
So one of them must be wrong

They update it every 06Z...

This was yesterday (Dec.23) at 06Z.. It was not yet a depression then. See the IMAGE?

[supercane4867]

They update it every 06Z...

This was yesterday (Dec.23) at 06Z.. It was not yet a depression then. See the IMAGE?

Well I'll be very suprised if there's a sudden upgrade from nothing to a TD in the next advisory

[mrbagyo]

It's hard for me to think though that the center is still in Palau with the convection sheared well away to the northwest...because the cyclonic turning is associated with the convection and is evident on visible sat loop. i agree with the JMA position on this.

I also agree with that position...

[supercane4867]

Finally a respond from JTWC

[Meow]

no link so it must be false...please don't give us false information if you can't back it up...

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/Mo ... 6beb77.png

(Wrong date)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not to say politics are playing in to this, but ya. JTWC may be slow on the ball because there probably on a skeleton crew today. JMA is too on that note because its the Emperors b-day but still.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Now now guys... I have never really used my (moderator) powers on here, dont make me start please. You all know better than that.

[Meow]

Now now guys... I have never really used my (moderator) powers on here, dont make me start please. You all know better than that.

A JTWC fan just questioned me impolitely because the JMA somehow followed the observations in Palau.

[Meow]

What a Christmas gift to the Philippines.



TD
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 24 December 2012

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20'(9.3°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)