Texas Winter 2012-2013

[DonWrk]

Those are some creepy images!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and my husbands hands turned into blocks of ice (that he stuck down my back for making him take those pics)

Those are some creepy images!

The Christmas images we have now originated in Eastern Europe/Germany/Switzerland/Austria/etc...... Knecht Ruprecht and Krampus got lost and never crossed the pond (coal in the stocking replaced them). However since the Canadian prairies are highly populated with people whose ancestors came from those places it isn't hard for us to equate Old Man Winter to either one or both.

They also have a connection to the Holy Roman Empire http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Companions_of_Saint_Nicholas

[coltsfan90]

I want some snow in Abilene, TX on Christmas even some flurries would make me happy!

[somethingfunny]

I just cleaned out my gutters and I'm about to go buy new windshield wiper blades. Already have Christmas ham, ingredients for split pea soup, hot cocoa, bread, milk, and of course liquor, so we're good to go.

I know that there is a lot of uncertainty remaining in the forecast... but I don't think the worst-case potential of this storm has really been advertised so far. I mean to say that yes, there's still a good chance that this ends up being a complete dud, and there's also still a good chance that this ends up being just a dusting, but... there is also a chance that this turns quite crippling for us. Rainfall all day, changing to sleet and then snow as the temperature drops below freezing. That would freeze all the rainwater and the initial snowfall that melted on the roads, and then more snow would accumulate on top of that layer of road ice. Then the forecast high for Wednesday is 35° - enough that a small underestimation would result in the entire day remaining below freezing. It would only last a day, but that day could cripple the road network the way it was in the first week of February 2011. I don't believe the trees would endure much ice accumulation since the changeover to sleet/snow should happen quickly, but with 35 mph+ wind gusts, any added weight could cause some tree and power line damage.

While it's not the most likely scenario, it's absolutely a scenario we should be prepared for just in case!

[cycloneye]

For those who want to see colder weather and some snow, this forecast of the PNA turning positive may help that cause but there are other factors that also have influence such as AO,PDO and NAO. Ntxw, is this noise or is something to watch?

[Portastorm]

Yes Porta!!! I will have to hide my truck though.....she doesn't like hail! What do you figure our chances for severe wx are tomorrow? I didn't think we even made the edge of the yellow 15% probs on the outlook? Perhaps a tornado or two?

Well, this morning Austin was in the yellow 15% probs (slight risk). Now we're in the green general thunderstorm section. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see us back in the slight risk zone by tomorrow. Why? SPC is just providing its best educated guess on when the shortwave moving west to east across north Texas turns into a negative tilt. We're not really sure where that happens. How far south does it occur? How far west does it occur? That will predicate where the squall line gets going to our west Christmas morning. As it is now, EWX mentions "strong storms" for areas east of a line from Burnet-New Braunfels-Cuero.

The forecast is still fluid and this will be a very dynamic storm.

[Ntxw]

For those who want to see colder weather and some snow, this forecast of the PNA turning positive may help that cause but there are other factors that also have influence such as AO,PDO and NAO. Ntxw, is this noise or is something to watch?

Thanks for the graphic! It is a real signal and is an indirect result of the negative SOI crash this month. An arctic blast is looming on the horizon as the events unfold next week. The +PNA will warm up Alaska and western Canada due to the arctic air being dislodged into the contiguous states. The AO will remain in the negative state well beyond the new year!

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

Since Waco's chances of snow are going down- here is a pic from 2010 snow - as you can see we need more practice Old Man Winter!!

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm impressed! Good luck (remember OMW still has lots of time to visit you again)

[iorange55]

Things went a little downhill after I left this morning, eh? At least with the major models. Oh well, I'll still be looking for a surprise.

Edit: The 0z NAM pounds Oklahoma City...

[Ntxw]

Things went a little downhill after I left this morning, eh? At least with the major models. Oh well, I'll still be looking for a surprise.

Edit: The 0z NAM pounds Oklahoma City...

It does! NAM is the NWS lovechild inside 48 hours, they will probably follow it like glue.

A little optimistic look, it is further south than the 12z. Central Oklahoma instead of northern and Kansas/Missouri

[iorange55]

Things went a little downhill after I left this morning, eh? At least with the major models. Oh well, I'll still be looking for a surprise.

Edit: The 0z NAM pounds Oklahoma City...

It does! NAM is the NWS lovechild inside 48 hours, they will probably follow it like glue.

A little optimistic look, it is further south than the 12z. Central Oklahoma instead of northern and Kansas/Missouri

We always seem to be a little bit too far south it still might change, although, we are running out of time for any huge changes. I'd drive to OKC if it wasn't Christmas

[wxman57]

Trend appears to be farther north (of Dallas) with the snow on Christmas Day. However, that's not written in stone yet. One thing we can take from the models is that if they are having trouble 2-3 days out then I wouldn't trust anything they are forecasting for New Year's...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks very much like the NAM, central Oklahoma/Arkansas primed for a lot of snow. Red River counties has a shot at some accumulations too, flurries about elsewhere on it.

[HockeyTx82]

Thread over? Where did everyone go? Hey I am happy just to have it be cold on Christmas. After all we do live in Texas.

[iorange55]

Thread over? Where did everyone go? Hey I am happy just to have it be cold on Christmas. After all we do live in Texas.

I was busy wrapping presents...not that well I might add. I'm still hopeful the track changes, we still might seem some snow! Plus, there will be more opportunities! I am confident.

[iorange55]

From Steve McCauley's Facebook

As Murphy's Law would have it, our Christmas storm has just now entered the Pacific Northwest Coast, and thus it still has not been sampled by our weather balloon network.

This means precise snowfall accumulations -if any- for north Texas are still not going to be reliable, so the best we can say at this point is that it should be light. This is based on the assumption that the track of the storm will cross over the Red River, and as you know, the heaviest of the snow is to the NORTH of the track (i.e., Oklahoma).

But as we have been saying, if this track pushes just 50 miles farther south, we would have to introduce snowfall accumulations for the Metroplex. We will know Monday after our approaching storm is fully sampled by our upper-air network of weather balloons.

What we can definitely say is that rain and thunderstorms will start off Christmas day, and when the winds kick to the north early afternoon, temps start falling, and the winds gust to 50 mph! This in itself could cause some power problems, so be prepared, especially up there along the Red River!

There is still hope! Tomorrow will be the most important model watching day we've had in a long time.

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet is still much further south than the American models.





Edit: Canadian still likes the eastern Red River counties as well as eastern Oklahoma

[dhweather]

My skill at forecasting winter weather is a couple of notches below my tropical weather skills. That said.......

I'm getting the feeling that we aren't going to see much precip of any kind in DFW. What we do get will be a cold rain, .25 inches or so. We'll probably end up in the dry wedge.

Red River / far NE Texas probably gets a couple of inches of snow.

[Ntxw]

Not a lot of change on the 0z Euro from the 12z run. Period of light snow along and north of I-20 Christmas afternoon maybe 1-2", moderate snow along the Red River maybe 2-5" on it.



Most of the models today do show at least some snow falling on Christmas along I-20 so that will be nice for the special day!

Edit: If you look at it closely CMC/Euro/Ukmet are about a hundred miles apart from the GFS/NAM. Somebody is going to bust