Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It's looking more and more like the Sherman area (where I am now) and the DFW area (where I live) isn't going to get anything. Boo...

Sherman will get snow! The American models weren't too keen on much, but the 12Z runs have slightly shifted in your favor.

[Brandon8181]

What about the big storm that North Central Texas had in 2011 I belive. Remeber when the NWS was only predicting 1-2 inches if I recall, and I belive the low ended up digging much further south and left several areas of 4-12 inches of snow. If I recall the hardest hit areas I think were maybe Grayson and Collin County?

Any thoughts on the posibility of this storm doing that?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What about the big storm that North Central Texas had in 2011 I belive. Remeber when the NWS was only predicting 1-2 inches if I recall, and I belive the low ended up digging much further south and left several areas of 4-12 inches of snow. If I recall the hardest hit areas I think were maybe Grayson and Collin County?

Any thoughts on the posibility of this storm doing that?

The foreign models have been favoring a further south trek than that of the American models. The 12Z NAM has shifted further south; very slight, but it still has. Briefly looking a few hours out, on the 12Z GFS, it appears to have shifted south too. We shall see.

[Nikki]

Man on man what the kids would have done to wake up to some snow here tomorrow morning ah well, maybe sometime in 2013...we shall see!!

Merry Christmas everyone!! I truly hope you all have a beautiful holiday season!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS shifted further south....now coming more in line with the international models. Just reiterating what's been said on here repeatedly, these models are notorious for underestimating the southward push of these cold fronts which will have big implications as to where the snow line ends up. The Fort Worth NWS should probably consider hoisting winter storm watches for at least the top 2 tier red river counties in North Texas

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12Z GFS shifted further south....now coming more in line with the international models. Just reiterating what's been said on here repeatedly, these models are notorious for underestimating the southward push of these cold fronts which will have big implications as to where the snow line ends up

Perfect summary!

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS shifted further south....now coming more in line with the international models. Just reiterating what's been said on here repeatedly, these models are notorious for underestimating the southward push of these cold fronts which will have big implications as to where the snow line ends up. The Fort Worth NWS should probably consider hoisting winter storm watches for at least the top 2 tier red river counties in North Texas

I was just examining the 500mb vorticity map per the GFS, comparing the current 12z cycle with the 0z cycle. No question that the low is now progged a bit further south. I wouldn't say it's a dramatic change but one more in line with King Euro. And, as we have said here, even little changes can have big implications in terms of snowfall. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

All hail king Euro and it's accomplice the Ukmet. Never bet against those two when they agree!

GFS finally is doing what the other two saw, track the surface low through central Texas. The storm is also being sampled today.

[Ntxw]

The Fort Worth NWS should probably consider hoisting winter storm watches for at least the top 2 tier red river counties in North Texas

Now, I love the NWS in FW for the great stuff they do there, but knowing them historically they won't do it. I can only remember once or twice the past 5 years were there ever winter storm watches and there have been plenty of events that warranted. At this point it's probably a little late for that anyway being only 24 hours away.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The Fort Worth NWS should probably consider hoisting winter storm watches for at least the top 2 tier red river counties in North Texas

Now, I love the NWS in FW for the great stuff they do there, but knowing them historically they won't do it. I can only remember once or twice the past 5 years were there ever winter storm watches and there have been plenty of events that warranted. At this point it's probably a little late for that anyway being only 24 hours away.

I concur! Maybe with it being a holiday; they will reconsider. The 12Z GFS is definitely an eye opener, since it's slowly showing what the foreign models have been showing. The 12Z NAM even shows some pretty good snowfall for Cooke and Grayson Counties. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

The cold air is slowly bleeding south. The true deep cold air is currently progressing through northern Kansas.

[iorange55]

Haha, all it took was a little negativity! I looked at the 12z GFS and thought, "Oh, wow! I better see what they're saying about it on storm2k"

Let the trend continue

[Brandon8181]

Haha, all it took was a little negativity! I looked at the 12z GFS and thought, "Oh, wow! I better see what they're saying about it on storm2k"

Let the trend continue

I'm liking it! It does certainly look like things are turning looking at these trends. Truthfully, even just a small pull back to the south could mean BIG CHANGES for north Texas...and even where I'm at!

[Brandon8181]

It looks like east Texas may be to warm for any winter precip?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 09Z SREF is further south too! It's showing accumulating snow for northern Texas; especially the Red River Counties.

[missytingarland]

That's a little more positive! The forecasters on TV here are totally focusing on OK, and are being negative on our chances here in Grayson County. Frustrating!! I remember 2011 when they said 1-2" of snow and we got 14".

[Ntxw]

The 09Z SREF is further south too! It's showing accumulating snow for northern Texas; especially the Red River Counties.

SREF's are basically ensemble runs of the NAM, it's not surprising. It just means the NAM will likely turn around later today

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I know this is from Tulsa, but they are noticing a potential southerly trend too..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...
WILL KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY IN
MOST AREAS. GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED UPPER LOW THAT PROMISES TO BRING A
WINTER STORM TO MUCH OF THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY. 12Z MODELS
CONVERGING ON A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND
ALSO A TRANSITION PERIOD OF PRECIP TYPES EARLY IN THE EVENT. IN
ANY CASE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF U.S. 412.

UPDATES TO TODAYS FORECAST WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.

[txsnowman1369]

Even though I know nothing about weather patterns or models, I think this site is amazing! I found this site a few days ago and it has totally captivated me! I am from near Wichita Falls, TX and the ups and downs of the trending on this storm has been gutwrenching to say the least... I am hoping for plenty of the white stuff for Christmas! Thank you to all that have been keeping us informed!

[Ntxw]

Even though I know nothing about weather patterns or models, I think this site is amazing! I found this site a few days ago and it has totally captivated me! I am from near Wichita Falls, TX and the ups and downs of the trending on this storm has been gutwrenching to say the least... I am hoping for plenty of the white stuff for Christmas! Thank you to all that have been keeping us informed!

Welcome to the board, glad you decided to take the plunge and join our madness ! I think you have a fairly good chance at seeing some snow fall at the very least up there in the falls!

It looks like east Texas may be to warm for any winter precip?

Northern half of east Texas near I-20 and north has a shot at flurries or snow I think