1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.1N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 128.5E
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 127.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN
Very good read regarding 27W's track and intensity and what we can expect out from this systemWDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE.
CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
30 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS ON
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS
IMPROVED BANDING PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS, 180NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND
SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 27W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE TRACKING OVER
THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK
SYSTEM AND, THEREFORE, DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS SHOWS A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A STRONGER SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET
THE BAROTROPIC MODEL, WHICH IS RECURVING TD 27W NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RENEWED
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, IT WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
