WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

[supercane4867]

Worst christmas gift to the Philippines

[stormstrike]

JTWC is on its own world..
with slightly different storm track and intensity....

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 250309
TCSWNP

A. 27W (NONAME)

B. 25/0230Z

C. 9.8N

D. 128.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THE WIND FIELD
AROUND IT WITHIN THE LAST 6HRS AND OLD TROF HAS SHEARED OUT INTO A NW/SE
CONVERGENCE LINE. CONVECTION MEASURES .35 ON LOG10 PLUS WHITE FOR DT
OF 2.5. SHEAR METHOD SEEMS UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME. MET IS 2.0. PT IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2136Z 9.2N 129.3E SSMIS


...GALLINA

[stormstrike]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 DEC 2012 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 10:17:46 N Lon : 127:13:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.6mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.9 3.0

Center Temp : -30.6C Cloud Region Temp : -45.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.72 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 10:41:23 N Lon: 127:13:12 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.1 degrees

[stormstrike]

TS 1225 (WUKONG)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 25 December 2012

<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°10'(10.2°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest JMA track strengthens the storm slightly to 72kph. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1225.html

[mrbagyo]

I agree with this position from cimss adt.
Leyte will surely feel the effect of this system when this reaches land ...actually they are already feeling it

[stormstrike]

my guess is that JTWC would still not upgrade this one into a Tropical Storm on their next advisory...

[dexterlabio]

^which makes things more inconsistent. JTWC uses 1-min ave. in reporting wind speed whereas the asian weather agencies (like the JMA) report wind speed in 10-min average...with that, the reported wind speed from the JTWC is expected to be higher than from the JMA. A 75kph sustained winds (10-min ave.) translates to around 85kph (1-min ave.), but this is clearly not the case this time. actually this happens most of the time.

[phwxenthusiast]

wow southern tip of Samar reporting a pressure of 992hPa... (996hPa about 12 hours ago)

[Meow]

^which makes things more inconsistent. JTWC uses 1-min ave. in reporting wind speed whereas the asian weather agencies (like the JMA) report wind speed in 10-min average...with that, the reported wind speed from the JTWC is expected to be higher than from the JMA. A 75kph sustained winds (10-min ave.) translates to around 85kph (1-min ave.), but this is clearly not the case this time. actually this happens most of the time.

The Dvorak technique causes it. The JMA may analyse CI2.5, but the JTWC analyses T2.0.

[stormstrike]

where can we get satellite fixes on this storm? link? JTWC seems to be on a holiday too....
thanks

[mrbagyo]

??? captain hook ????

[mrbagyo]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 DEC 2012 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 10:36:21 N Lon : 125:44:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 999.0mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -51.9C Cloud Region Temp : -53.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:36:00 N Lon: 126:19:48 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

[stormstrike]

did it just move northwest? or just an illusion of the rainbands?

[mrbagyo]

Tacloban City reporting 18.19 mm/hour of rain

pressure in salcedo, samar - 990.419 hpa

http://noah.dost.gov.ph/

[euro6208]

god bless the philippines

[euro6208]

^which makes things more inconsistent. JTWC uses 1-min ave. in reporting wind speed whereas the asian weather agencies (like the JMA) report wind speed in 10-min average...with that, the reported wind speed from the JTWC is expected to be higher than from the JMA. A 75kph sustained winds (10-min ave.) translates to around 85kph (1-min ave.), but this is clearly not the case this time. actually this happens most of the time.

The Dvorak technique causes it. The JMA may analyse CI2.5, but the JTWC analyses T2.0.

JMA has their own dvorak scale and don't follow the US one...sometimes JMA is the first to upgrade to TD/TS status for weak storms but for stronger storms, JTWC is way ahead...an 8.0 for U.S is 170 knots...JMA??? i think it's around 120 knots...the disparity only grows...

[Meow]

JMA has their own dvorak scale and don't follow the US one...sometimes JMA is the first to upgrade to TD/TS status for weak storms but for stronger storms, JTWC is way ahead...an 8.0 for U.S is 170 knots...JMA??? i think it's around 120 knots...the disparity only grows...

Yes, I know their scales are different. In fact, I have already made a comparison for many agencies in October.

[euro6208]

JMA has their own dvorak scale and don't follow the US one...sometimes JMA is the first to upgrade to TD/TS status for weak storms but for stronger storms, JTWC is way ahead...an 8.0 for U.S is 170 knots...JMA??? i think it's around 120 knots...the disparity only grows...

Yes, I know their scales are different. In fact, I have already made a comparison for many agencies in October.

oh wow! JMA has the lowest wind speed out of all agencies??? being the RSMC of this basin, this is ridiculous...