Texas Winter 2012-2013

#1741 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:18 pm

DFW airport officially recorded 0.4 inches bringing the seasonal total to 0.5. Seems a little low considering I got about 2 inches and not that far from the airport, but I guess it's how one measures.

Anyone ready to track the next one?!

iorange55 · #1742 Postby **iorange55** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW airport officially recorded 0.4 inches bringing the seasonal total to 0.5. Seems a little low considering I got about 2 inches and not that far from the airport, but I guess it's how one measures.

Anyone ready to track the next one?!

That does seem low! I got about an inch or so down here, enough to make it look pretty outside!

I am always ready :cold:

looks like the chance might be coming up soon.

TeamPlayersBlue · #1743 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:11 pm

Snow flurries reported north of HWY 105 :eek:

aggiecutter · #1744 Postby **aggiecutter** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:22 pm

Texarkana received a little over 2" of snow this afternoon. If not for Portastorm dry slotting me, I would of had another 2-3 inches.

#1745 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:23 pm

Lets talk about what's to come. Readings will remain below average the remainder of the week. A weak storm will effect us at the end of this week but shouldn't amount to much and only reinforces a little chilly air. All the globals now agree that a system will cut off near NW Mexico. It may wait for a shortwave to dive south from NW Canada as the +PNA will go very positive.

These two systems appear to merge and we have the convergence of the Polar and Subtropical Jet once again. As it swings out of northern Mexico the first week of the new year this system will take a more southern track than the previous. Another area of wintry weather is possible any place above I-10 (details tbd). Another heavy rain event is also on the table for the warm side. Once it passes we will likely drain the rest of the cold air from Canada. We are once again about a week away from such system so buckle up and prepare for another emotional ride with the models!

For the warm weather folks after this there will be a relaxation period as the source region must reload, but be forewarned, the AO is almost certainly to remain negative for most of this winter as mountain torque, AAM, and stratospheric warming all point to this. As evident with blocky winters, storms continuously threaten the southern half of the continental US

Cyclenall · #1746 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:For the warm weather folks after this there will be a relaxation period as the source region must reload, but be forewarned, the AO is almost certainly to remain negative for most of this winter as mountain torque, AAM, and stratospheric warming all point to this. As evident with blocky winters, storms continuously threaten the southern half of the continental US

And with that will there be a much increased chance of US tornado outbreaks/events during the next 20 days and maybe more? This pattern looks to bring favorable tornado conditions across the south like what is occurring right now. I thought this but didn't know for sure before looking closer. Its been a long time without a active tornado pattern so now is the time to equalize.

#1747 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:05 pm

OK, now that you've all had your winter (and many a white Christmas), can I have my summer back?

#1748 Postby **Nikki** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:OK, now that you've all had your winter (and many a white Christmas), can I have my summer back?

You cannot have your summer back until you bring us snow here in our area!! :lol:

#1749 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:OK, now that you've all had your winter (and many a white Christmas), can I have my summer back?

After last winter's misery?!? That would be a big "Negative Ghost Rider, the pattern is full!"

#1750 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:13 pm

Cyclenall wrote:And with that will there be a much increased chance of US tornado outbreaks/events during the next 20 days and maybe more? This pattern looks to bring favorable tornado conditions across the south like what is occurring right now. I thought this but didn't know for sure before looking closer. Its been a long time without a active tornado pattern so now is the time to equalize.

It's certainly possible. To get outbreaks you need both warm and cold air clashes. Much of this year there wasn't much cold air to clash and warmth just dominated. We just went through a transition period where both went back and forth and we saw several systems produce a lot of severe weather. It will get harder in January and Feb to get that kind of warmth to return, but we now know there is a cold air source so come spring, look out.

#1751 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:18 pm

No snow here, but I did manage to get a whole .10" (that's a tenth of an inch) of rain earlier. It' hard to believe I was at 77 this morning and now Im down to 37. That's 40 degrees in less than 12 hours.

Merry Christmas everyone.

#1752 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:24 pm

Interesting news Ntwx! Can we get that to come further south so it is all the way to the coast with a chance and not just north of I-10? I live just south of I-10 so that is always heart breaking when it is so close yet so far.

#1753 Postby **ravyrn** » Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:Lets talk about what's to come. Readings will remain below average the remainder of the week. A weak storm will effect us at the end of this week but shouldn't amount to much and only reinforces a little chilly air. All the globals now agree that a system will cut off near NW Mexico. It may wait for a shortwave to dive south from NW Canada as the +PNA will go very positive.

These two systems appear to merge and we have the convergence of the Polar and Subtropical Jet once again. As it swings out of northern Mexico the first week of the new year this system will take a more southern track than the previous. Another area of wintry weather is possible any place above I-10 (details tbd). Another heavy rain event is also on the table for the warm side. Once it passes we will likely drain the rest of the cold air from Canada. We are once again about a week away from such system so buckle up and prepare for another emotional ride with the models!

For the warm weather folks after this there will be a relaxation period as the source region must reload, but be forewarned, the AO is almost certainly to remain negative for most of this winter as mountain torque, AAM, and stratospheric warming all point to this. As evident with blocky winters, storms continuously threaten the southern half of the continental US

When is this storm from NW Mexico currently expected to traverse the state? I fly out of DFW on 1/7 to head up to Vancouver Island. I ask because I don't want to miss snow down here, and also because I don't want it to ruin my flight either!

TeamPlayersBlue · #1754 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:59 am

33.1F at the house now. 75F to 33.1F on Christmas day. Never seen that before lol.

ludosc · #1755 Postby **ludosc** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:51 am

just drove home from South Arlington to the west side of Fort Worth...roads were pretty much fine...there might have been some ice on bridges but i took it slow and there wasn't much traffic out so i didn't have to worry about idiots doing 80...they were sanding the highways in Arlington and Fort Worth so those that have to go into work tomorrow should be ok.

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #1756 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:37 am

I hate to be a bragger, but I measured in with 1.70 inches of rain before the change over to snow, and have about 2 inches of snow on the ground now. All in all, some much need moisture in this nape of the woods, neck of the wape. Here.

ah1143 · #1757 Postby **ah1143** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:48 am

Long time lurker first time poster. Now that I've got my fix, what's down the road, if anything, can we look forward to in order to hold off the snow withdrawals.

You cannot strengthen the weak by weaking the strong.

iorange55 · #1758 Postby **iorange55** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:57 am

Temp at my house this morning is sitting at around 19-20F and the wind chills are in the single digits! Had to take my trash bin and recycle out to the curb, I think I may have lost a couple of toes in the process.

And to the question up above; there should be more chances this winter. Might even be something coming within in the next week, at the very least we'll get some good cold rain!

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #1759 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:41 am

Kennethb · #1760 Postby **Kennethb** » Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:59 am

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:I hate to be a bragger, but I measured in with 1.70 inches of rain before the change over to snow, and have about 2 inches of snow on the ground now. All in all, some much need moisture in this nape of the woods, neck of the wape. Here.

Hey I say brag when you can !!!