Severe weather outbreak? December 25-26

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

ALC099-131-260115-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0134.000000T0000Z-121226T0115Z/
MONROE AL-WILCOX AL-
642 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
WILCOX AND NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 640 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF YELLOW
BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOYKIN... YELLOW BLUFF... CAMDEN...
VREDENBURGH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 8759 3217 8730 3215 8727 3214 8725
3211 8723 3208 8719 3205 8717 3205 8700
3201 8695 3177 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 230DEG 39KT 3190 8747

$$

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/FL
PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...AL/FL PANHANDLE TO GA/SC...
SEVERE RISK INCLUDING TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF A STRONG
TORNADO...WILL REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHWEST GA IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. IN THIS
CORRIDOR...LOW LEVEL SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING NNE-SSW
ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /AND EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT/. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT WITH THE
QLCS...ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO RISK IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED
MESO-VORTICES.

THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS AL/GA/TN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION/RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT SOME SEVERE
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE INTO AREAS AS FAR EAST AS COASTAL SC BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

...COASTAL CENTRAL CA...
A TSTM OR TWO WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INLAND MOVING FRONT/CONVECTIVE BAND THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL TONIGHT OWING TO MEAGER INLAND
INSTABILITY.

..GUYER.. 12/26/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0113Z (8:13PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA/MS...SWRN TO CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 695...696...

VALID 260108Z - 260215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 695...696...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 695 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697 ARE
SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. PORTIONS OF THESE WW/S WILL BE REPLACED OR
LOCALLY EXTENDED AS COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED WFO/S OCCURS PRIOR TO
EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED QLCS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BHM TO JUST E OF MSY
AT 01Z...PROGRESSING EWD AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS LINE SHOULD ATTEMPT
TO ACCELERATE BY LATE EVENING AS 700 MB JET INTENSIFIES EWD ALONG
THE LINE...YIELDING INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM NEAR MGM TO ABY. HERE
TO...AN ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS IN THE
NEAR-TERM AND SHOULD LARGELY EVOLVE INTO WW 696 GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR
OF 40-45 KT.

FARTHER N...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE N OF
THE FRONT PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z BMX RAOB...BUT GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING AND KINEMATIC PROFILES...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO PARTS OF WRN GA /DETAILED
IN MCD 2221/.

..GRAMS.. 12/26/2012


ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30058938 30878846 32278743 33248682 33538658 33718627
33728582 33518532 33118522 31858642 30708735 30318751
30058938

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 696...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK INTO WESTERN GA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

ALC109-260500-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-121226T0500Z/
PIKE AL-
1040 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CST...

AT 1039 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR TROY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINWOOD...CHINA GROVE AND SANDFIELD.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3185 8608 3197 8600 3205 8599 3204 8597
3206 8596 3205 8590 3196 8588 3197 8579
3188 8579 3188 8570 3179 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 228DEG 51KT 3189 8592

$$

GRANTHAM

[CrazyC83]

On to the next round...

SPC AC 260600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL SC/NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE
PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STATES/ROCKIES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES. MOST RELEVANT
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A CLOSED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND AN ASSOCIATED 100+ KT POLAR JET
STREAK /250-300 MB/ TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL
TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES
NEAR/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.

...CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...
A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE QLCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/NORTH FL...WITH A LESS VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE
QLCS/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND UPSTATE PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
AN EARLY DAY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE MAINLY ACROSS
COASTAL/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXIT REGION/STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS...AMPLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR /50-80 KT 0-6 KM/ WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY.
WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MAY MOVE DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VA
AND EVENTUALLY THE DELMARVA VICINITY. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT AN
INFLUX OF A RELATIVELY MOIST ATLANTIC AIRMASS IN TANDEM WITH A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. PENDING THE DETAILS/EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE EARLY DAY QLCS/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL...WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR...WITH AS
MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECTED DEGREE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT/QLCS AND ROBUST NATURE OF THE FORCING/WIND FIELD WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...IN ADVANCE OF AN
EVOLVING/NORTHEASTWARD RACING QLCS. A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY A 50-65 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH 200-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. THUS...TORNADOES...PERHAPS A FEW STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING
WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING QLCS.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...GA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL...
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL EXIST
TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING QLCS/NEAR-COLD FRONTAL
CORRIDOR ACROSS GA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS FL AS THE PRIMARY
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SLOWLY SPREADS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/26/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0611Z (1:11AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[JonathanBelles]

Severe weather threat for tomorrow after 7am. I think the tornado threat will be kept up north Graphically on twitter: http://twitpic.com/bpgn32

[StormingB81]

just had a water spout here just south of the Lejuene area.

[WeatherGuesser]

I think Day 2 was kind of a bust.

[RL3AO]

Not surprised. Hard to imagine anything big in the eastern Carolinas on December 26.

[MGC]

NWS Slidell has rated the Pearl River County tornado an EF-3......MGC

[Jag95]

Mobile's NWS rated the Mobile tornado an EF-2. It's hard to believe it didn't do more damage, judging by the looks of it on web cam. It had the looks of something you'd see further north.

[Nate-Gillson]

Mobile's NWS rated the Mobile tornado an EF-2. It's hard to believe it didn't do more damage, judging by the looks of it on web cam. It had the looks of something you'd see further north.

Well, the Edgewater tornado in east central Florida a few weeks back had that same look and yet it was only an EF1.

[Jag95]

Yeah, they are generally weaker around the coast, thank goodness. Here's an interesting video I ran across of some security cams in a drug store in midtown.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pSJE5fJlHY

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, they are generally weaker around the coast, thank goodness. Here's an interesting video I ran across of some security cams in a drug store in midtown.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pSJE5fJlHY

Some more crazy security vids of the tornado, always interesting. Also check out the school:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJPGuMfnty4[/youtube]

The ending is nuts! 1 second the wall is there, the next you see outside and daylight! The tornado looked violent to me and not an EF2 but this is far from the first time that has happened. I don't see good video that shows how fast the funnel is rotating which is key.

So Jag95 and others from Mobile, what was your account of the danger facing your town during Christmas dinner time? It was a tornado emergency and there must have been some hysteria.

[Jag95]

I had been reading all of the NWS discussions for 2 or 3 days before Christmas, and everyone I talked to was aware that bad weather was coming. Nice job NWS. We had the volume turned down on the TV, but I saw the video and thought it was somewhere else until about 30 minutes later. I work about a mile from where it hit in midtown, so of course I drove on over and took a look the next morning. And, like probably anyone else on here would do, I did my own amateur survey and guessed what the NWS rating would be. I guessed EF-2. Bingo. Damage yes, but not as bad as I thought it would be.

[WeatherGuesser]

I work about a mile from where it hit in midtown, so of course I drove on over and took a look the next morning. And, like probably anyone else on here would do,

Most people would stay clear of a disaster area if they weren't authorized emergency personnel. The last thing people need in those areas is lookey-loos.

[PTPatrick]

I used to live 2 blocks from Murphy high in mobile. Went out yesterday not for site seeing purposes but to show a visiting friend my old neighborhood. As bad as the damage was it was only about a block wide (and they are small "blocks" in midtown mobile). Even across the street from Murphy houses were untouched and the trees looked to still have foliage. Murphy was a mess but was mostly outbuilding, fencing, and bleachers. The old parts looked ok but apparently thier roofs lifted up and sat back down and they are having to close the school til next year. The streets called Silverwood, north carlen, margaret, and rickby place were shut down between springhill and dauphin streets and looked to have some structural damage from trees falling from a distance. Overall though they were lucky this storm didn't cut a wider swath. It's a beautiful old neighborhood. Would hate, to have seen any more damage.