Texas Winter 2012-2013

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

All I got was a nice coat of dust on my truck.

I hope people are careful with fireworks over the next few days. Good grief it could get ugly if the winds pick up.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/12/12/26/e4usety9.jpg

Nice banner by the front door!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Lets talk about what's to come. Readings will remain below average the remainder of the week. A weak storm will effect us at the end of this week but shouldn't amount to much and only reinforces a little chilly air. All the globals now agree that a system will cut off near NW Mexico. It may wait for a shortwave to dive south from NW Canada as the +PNA will go very positive.

These two systems appear to merge and we have the convergence of the Polar and Subtropical Jet once again. As it swings out of northern Mexico the first week of the new year this system will take a more southern track than the previous. Another area of wintry weather is possible any place above I-10 (details tbd). Another heavy rain event is also on the table for the warm side. Once it passes we will likely drain the rest of the cold air from Canada. We are once again about a week away from such system so buckle up and prepare for another emotional ride with the models!

For the warm weather folks after this there will be a relaxation period as the source region must reload, but be forewarned, the AO is almost certainly to remain negative for most of this winter as mountain torque, AAM, and stratospheric warming all point to this. As evident with blocky winters, storms continuously threaten the southern half of the continental US

Ok. You DFW folks have had your fun with two winter weather events and now it's time for you all to share with the rest of us. Send the next low right over San Antonio and both Portastorm and I can have some precip.


What's the scoop on the next few weeks?

[knoxtnhorn]

It's a Longhorn love fest. Hook 'Em!

Longtime lurker. Not sure if I've posted anything before.

I'm jealous of those in Dallas - my former home - that got some snow. I sympathize with those further south in Austin - my other former home as I'm a Longhorn as well. Perhaps we'll get a little bit here in Knoxville.

Also just wanted to say Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and thanks for all the maps, forecasts, opinions, and laughs over the past 2-3 years that I've been reading.

[Portastorm]

Great to see all the "lurkers" posting as of late! Feel free to join the madness here.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, for those of you asking "what's next?" ... we have a system coming across the state around New Years. Both the GFS and Euro suggest ample precipitation but mainly in the form of rain. Personally, those of us in Austin would be happy with several inches of rain. I would trade several inches of rain, in fact, for a winter weather event. There, I said it! That's how bad it is here. The last several fronts have dry slotted us and drought conditions here are worsening.

The 0z Euro leaves troughing out in the Southwest after this storm system and shows some Polar air possibly spilling south after Jan. 5th. We shall see.

[vbhoutex]

Looking forward and backward with Jeff Lindner:

Progressive weather pattern over the southern US to continue.

Winds still coming down after the powerhouse wind event yesterday afternoon/evening with frequent gust to 40-50mph…for the second time in less than a week. Deep surface cyclone now moving into the OH Valley with skies clearing from WSW to ENE across SE TX under continued cold air advection pattern with temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the lower 20’s. Upstream air mass passing over the snow covered plains of N TX and OK will result in little modification today as solar energy goes into snow melt instead of warming the near surface air. With this in mind and NW winds continuing through much of the day, highs will only climb into the mid to upper 40’s under mainly sunny skies. Cold tonight as winds go nearly calm and skies remain clear…although could see some high level cirrus clouds pass over the region…but these rarely prevent cooling. Most areas will see lows in the 26-32 range except for the typical warmer spots (inside the Beltway and along the coast).

Coastal trough begins to take shape off the coastal bend early Thursday with a rapid increase in cloud cover as moisture is brought northward over top of the retreating cold surface dome. By afternoon isentropic lift may be enough to produce a few showers across the area. Highs will warm into the 50’s as winds turn more ESE on Thursday. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next powerful cold front. Surface trough will lift NE along the coast with light to moderate showers streaming northward out of the Gulf. Cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Current thinking is that warm unstable air mass will remain out over the Gulf waters and the warm front will not move inland and this should negate a severe weather threat…however elevated instability may be enough to produce a few strong storms on the frontal boundary.

Once again windy behind this front, but not the kind of winds we saw yesterday. Should see NW 15-25mph Friday night under strong cold air advection. I am tempted to go a little colder than guidance for the weekend with the snow pack lingering to our north and fresh Canadian air pouring down the plains across this snow pack…however some degree of melting will occur between now and Friday night. Will stick with highs in the 50’s on Saturday under sunny skies and a light freeze similar to tonight on Sunday morning.

New Year’s Storm System:

Attention will quickly focus on another potential high impact storm system starting late Sunday and continuing through New Year’s Day. Model are having a tough time with this feature as with the Christmas Day event with the GFS more open and progressive versus the ECMWF and CMC more closed off and stronger. Given the current highly progressive flow across the US, will side toward the GFS, but the system may be somewhat slower than what this model shows. Anyhow the track of the core of the upper low/trough looks to be further south than the Christmas system which brings the threat for winter weather deeper into TX and suppresses the possible warm front closer to the coast. Parameters look to be coming together for another bout of severe weather across the area…possibly more focused deeper into the region than the past event yesterday. Still a ways off and things will no doubt change between now an early next week.

Christmas Day Storm Reports:

***Damage survey will be conducted today over Houston and Trinity Counties to determine tornado intensity and damage paths)***

Madisonville, Madison: numerous trees and roofs blown off along HWY 21 (possible tornado)

9 NW Crockett, Houston: tornado report by public near Houston County Lake

13 SE Crockett, Houston: tornado damage to a building and bank on 287. Large tornado recorded on cell phone relayed to broadcast media.

15 SE Crockett, Trinity: spotter reported a tornado on the ground moving across a pasture.

Lovelady, Houston: Lovelady fire chief report wind gust to 80mph

Tomball, Harris: *1 fatal* Non-Thunderstorm wind gust to 50mph resulted in numerous downed trees. Man was struck and killed by falling tree.

Cleveland, Liberty: Large Pine tree downed 8 miles SE of Cleveland (possible tornado)

Katy, Harris: Grass fire developed late in the afternoon along Katy Hockley Cut-off Rd and Clay Rd. 3 fire departments responded due to the strong winds. No homes were threatened

Corpus Christi, Live Oak: 200 acre wildfire burned 2 homes and 1 vehicle in the Hideaway Hills subdivision. Winds gusting to 50mph forced the evacuation of 90 residents as the fire spread rapidly. TX Forest service crews responded with local FD’s to bring the fire under control and saved over 50 homes

Dallas, Dallas: 2-4 inches of snow recorded across the metro area.
Plano: 3.0 inch snow

Tuesday Wind Gust:
BUSH IAH: 51
College Station: 54
Tomball: 46
Wharton: 45
Conroe: 49
Hobby Airport: 56
Brenham: 46
Bay City: 44
Galveston: 47
Lake Jackson: 46
Pearland: 51
Palacios: 53
Huntsville: 52
Bay City: 39
Victoria: 48

[vbhoutex]

Meanwhile, for those of you asking "what's next?" ... we have a system coming across the state around New Years. Both the GFS and Euro suggest ample precipitation but mainly in the form of rain. Personally, those of us in Austin would be happy with several inches of rain. I would trade several inches of rain, in fact, for a winter weather event. There, I said it! That's how bad it is here. The last several fronts have dry slotted us and drought conditions here are worsening.

The 0z Euro leaves troughing out in the Southwest after this storm system and shows some Polar air possibly spilling south after Jan. 5th. We shall see.

As much as I want some snow I have to agree with the PWC Grey Goose Vodka swilling Senior Met. We are in severe drought again in our area with some extreme moving closer, so---

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Meanwhile, for those of you asking "what's next?" ... we have a system coming across the state around New Years. Both the GFS and Euro suggest ample precipitation but mainly in the form of rain. Personally, those of us in Austin would be happy with several inches of rain. I would trade several inches of rain, in fact, for a winter weather event. There, I said it! That's how bad it is here. The last several fronts have dry slotted us and drought conditions here are worsening.

The 0z Euro leaves troughing out in the Southwest after this storm system and shows some Polar air possibly spilling south after Jan. 5th. We shall see.

Bring on the rain and in the fashion of a slow steady variety over several days. I know a few farmers who will not be planting if we don't get rain like tomorrow. We are going to be in deep-deep trouble in the spring and summer if things don't reverse now. I imagine many grass high school football fields will be going to turf over the off season this year thanks to this drought.

[DonWrk]

Pretty cool looking at the snow on the visible satellite!

[Tejas89]

Thanks to all the model watchers!! Y'all nailed it a week ago.

Interesting to see how the rest of this winter plays out. It seems to be a colder winter in the northern climes. Yakutsk, Eastern Russia has been brutal this year compared to last (just by my amateur eye). GFS had a forecasted low of -70 this week!! They've since backed it down to a balmy -60. Must be like living on the moon.

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you what ... I think the growing snowpack in the Plains and Rockies, even the snow on the ground in northwest/north Texas is having an impact on those of us downstream. Today's forecasted high in Austin is 45. We're sitting 37 degrees at high noon with only a few hours left of peak heating. I don't see us rising above 42 at this rate.

[aggiecutter]

Great to see all the "lurkers" posting as of late! Feel free to join the madness here.

The Texarkana area got the best of both worlds yesterday as we received close to 3" of rain before the snow started falling. Below are a couple of videos I made just for you.

Video number 1:
http://s269.beta.photobucket.com/user/P ... sort=3&o=2

Video number 2:
http://s269.beta.photobucket.com/user/P ... sort=3&o=1

[orangeblood]

The models and their ensemble members are all over the place with next weeks storm...the Euro breaking off a piece of energy and forming a cut-low over Baja while the GFS keeps the energy moving along the main branch of the jet stream as a positively tilted trough. If the Euro were to verify, it would bring a prolonged period of much needed rain over Texas while the GFS would bring little rain. As Ntxw has mentioned, in order to get another round of winter weather, several things will have to come together including phasing of both the subtropical and polar jets. IMO, this seems like the most plausible scenario at this time because it would be a blend of both the GFS and Euro. Some ensemble members show this exact scenario depicting quite a winter storm across the southern plains next week. Due to the complex pattern developing, models will be all over the place outside of 3-4 days out. For the potential storm storm next week, the models perform terribly during the time range we our currently in, 5-8 days out.

[Portastorm]

Great to see all the "lurkers" posting as of late! Feel free to join the madness here.

The Texarkana area got the best of both worlds yesterday as we received close to 3" of rain before the snow started falling. Below are a couple of videos I made just for you.

Video number 1:
http://s269.beta.photobucket.com/user/P ... sort=3&o=2

Video number 2:
http://s269.beta.photobucket.com/user/P ... sort=3&o=1

Thanks for the videos aggiecutter! For a moment I pretended I was in Texarkana ... and it was fun.

Happy to see you were doubly blessed yesterday. Now how about sharing that wealth and removing the Omega Block over Austin?!

[Portastorm]

The models and their ensemble members are all over the place with next weeks storm...the Euro breaking off a piece of energy and forming a cut-low over Baja while the GFS keeps the energy moving along the main branch of the jet stream as a positively tilted trough. If the Euro were to verify, it would bring a prolonged period of much needed rain over Texas while the GFS would bring little rain. As Ntxw has mentioned, in order to get another round of winter weather, several things will have to come together including phasing of both the subtropical and polar jets. IMO, this seems like the most plausible scenario at this time because it would be a blend of both the GFS and Euro. Some ensemble members show this exact scenario depicting quite a winter storm across the southern plains next week. Due to the complex pattern developing, models will be all over the place outside of 3-4 days out. For the potential storm storm next week, the models perform terribly during this time range, 5-8 days out.

Very good, salient points, orangeblood. Look for lots of changes in the operational model runs in the days ahead. For a good example of what you're talking about, take a look below at the wildly divergent ensemble runs for today's 12z, 500mb level, at 216 hours.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[iorange55]

12Z CMC looks like it wants to cut the low off, and develops some snow out in west Texas at the end of its run. This storm could do a lot of different things as mentioned above. Should be fun to watch!

[Ntxw]

A couple of points to consider. Favor the models with a cutoff over NW Mexico. Hudson block will shift to the other side of Canada in a very +pna and there is almost always a cutoff at its base. Also when it ejects there is a possibility it may pull cold air from an eastern trough back into Texas similar to a system early Jan 2011. So without looking at the model runs, this is what the teleconnections tell us the trends should eventually lean towards and gives hints to which model runs have credibility.

[dhweather]

Well, I have to give props to the FTW NWS - they did a great job with the Christmas Day storm. They called it about as well as you can with winter precip.

We got 1.65 inches of rain, then about 1" of snow.


I feel for you guys down in Austin/San Antonio - this drought business is old, and as much as we have endured in the last several years, you guys have had it worse. Maybe the NYD system will go right over you and be really wet.

[somethingfunny]

Mileage really varied for folks in this one. Look at the 2.5" in Denison vs. the 6" in Sherman:


At mom's home in north Plano, roughly three and a half inches:



About an inch or two depending on how thick the grass was here in Garland. Not enough to make the grass disappear completely, but almost enough for it.

This'll tide me over for a little while. What a merry Christmas surprise for everybody!