Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z Euro 24hr snow accumulation forecast for Jan 2-3 (18Z). Note that the values indicated are in millimeters of liquid, so you have to convert. Figure 25mm = 1" liquid = 10" snow. So each 5mm = about 2" of snow. Obviously, this is nearly 10 days out so don't believe it 100%.

[gpsnowman]

Hello everyone. Hope Christmas was safe and enjoyable. Driving on I-20 last night was a chore but seeing all the snow fall was a treat coming from East Texas. Regarding the New Years storm, I was curious about temps. Could this be the arctic motherload? I just read that polar vortex might be taking a tumble. IF the PV does collapse, how long before we see cold, if at all? Thanks.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Anyone paying attention to the Friday time-frame? May be some light wintry precipitation across north-central and northeast Texas!

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville afternoon discussion....let the model watching begin!

FAIR AND COOL TO MILD WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE LAST WEEKEND OF THE
YEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER THIS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL STRONG WINTER STORM. MAIN CULPRITS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON A NEW YEARS DAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH. LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATES A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURGE ON TUESDAY THEN WHAT IT INDICATED 12 HOURS AGO.
500-1000MB THICKNESS IS 100 DECAMETERS LOWER NEXT WEDNESDAY THEN
WHAT WAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED THIS MORNING. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF
TAKES THE UPPER TROUGH AND DIVES IT SOUTH OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH DELAYED AND POSSIBLY WETTER COLD
FRONT EITHER WEDNESDAY OR LATER. LATEST ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHED ANY
MORE LIGHT WITH A 50/50 SPLIT ON EITHER SOLUTION. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE
BAJA LOW MIGHT BE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL CORRECT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH INDICATES AN
EARLY WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN
THE GAME.

[horselattitudesfarm]

We got around 5" yesterday. Here are some pics of our snow.




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We were in the 5" bullseye in Central Collin County. My mom 10 miles away got about an inch in N. Dallas:


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[horselattitudesfarm]

Looking better:


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[KatDaddy]

Snow in Roanoke, TX yesterday.



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[Ntxw]

North America is chilly, a little warmer in central America where I suppose wxman57 is booking flight to! Notice there is still cold to be had in Canada. Not quite as cold as it was in NW Canada as the +PNA has begun shifting it to west central part of the country. The antithesis of the non-winter, aka winter of wxman57's discontent continues...

[South Texas Storms]

I'm really happy y'all in north Texas got a White Christmas this year. Hopefully us folks in southern and central Texas can get in on the action before this winter ends.

Here is my latest weather article! A major winter storm could affect Texas around New Years Day!
http://www.examiner.com/article/active- ... b_articles

[vbhoutex]

I'll tell you what ... I think the growing snowpack in the Plains and Rockies, even the snow on the ground in northwest/north Texas is having an impact on those of us downstream. Today's forecasted high in Austin is 45. We're sitting 37 degrees at high noon with only a few hours left of peak heating. I don't see us rising above 42 at this rate.

We managed a steamy 45F here in W Houston after 30.6F this morning. Currently at 36.5F with clear(ing) skies, so I expect the temps to start dropping again. We shall see if we make the 20s or if the clouds were around long enough to hold what little heat there is in enough to keep us in the 30s. I do agree about the snowpack to our N. I will be interested to see when the progged temps for next week start their downward slide.

[Dallasaggie01]

Made it to 31 (briefly) here in Richardson this afternoon, but majority of the day stayed in the upper 20's.

[weatherdude1108]

You know those contrails in the sky that are left by airplanes as they fly at high altitudes? Went out to let dog outside. Looked up at the full moon, and noticed a set of two contrails that were paralleling each other. I followed those and saw another set of two contrails crisscrossing the original set of two contrails, not quite at 90 degrees. My camera picked up the moon, but could not pick up the contrails. Were they four separate planes flying in pairs? Atmospheric testing? Very PECULIAR(??). Didn't know if anyone on this board has any insight into contrailing(?).

[Ntxw]

^ Are you sure it's not just stray thin cirrus clouds?

[weatherdude1108]

Normally I would think they were just cirrus or mid-level clouds, but these "clouds" were perfectly parallel and elongated, AND criss-crossed each other. Wish I had a pic. Otherwise, feel like I'm in "The Twilight Zone."

[iorange55]

DFW NWS

THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OFFSHORE FAR
NW BAJA CA BY SUNDAY NOON...BUT THE TRACK AS IT THEN MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. GFS/CMC/DGEX KEEP THE TROF
OPEN AND DRIVE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE LOW...SLOWS ITS
PROGRESS...AND TRACKS IT OVER NORTH TX NEXT FRIDAY MORNING (JAN
4). WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE FIRST SOLUTION AND HAVE UPPED THE POPS
FOR THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK AROUND THE LOW GIVING PERIODS
OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FORECAST RAIN...SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BECOME REALITY...COOL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX FOLLOWING A MONDAY COLD FRONT...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED OVER THIS COLD POOL BY THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW. IF THAT LOW LEVEL AIR IS BELOW FREEZING (NOT YET
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF)...THIS COULD BE AN EXTENSIVE FREEZING RAIN
EVENT FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS IS CURRENTLY A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO GIVEN THE ECMWF/S OUTLIER STATUS.

Looks like to me that the models are trending colder and colder with this system

[Portastorm]

King Euro's 0z run appears to offer a lot of wintry fun for Texas on/around Jan. 5th!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[wxman57]

King Euro's 0z run appears to offer a lot of wintry fun for Texas on/around Jan. 5th!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

My 3hr Euro snow maps say it falls on the 3rd/4th in the Dallas area. 2" accumulations indicated. Of course, it's quite far out and a lot can change. Remember that the Euro was forecasting less than an inch around the Dallas area with the Christmas event, and many received a lot more than that.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57, what are your thoughts on the state of winter now that we enter the meat of it? I know anything beyond 5 days is moot, but just wanted to know what you believe overall the season will favor

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the high pressure is trying to squeeze every ounce of moisture out if the sky. If you go outside of my house in Richardson now, and really squint, there are some very light flurries falling. Enough to dot my windshield.

[Ntxw]

A little rant from me about the Christmas storm and hopefully doesn't come across as rude but constructive criticism. As the event unfolded the NWS FW overall I think did a good job. Leading up to the event, I believe it could've have been better. After hearing stories from my own family and the news, DFW airport was a complete disaster during/after the event. People were left waiting unforgiving hours in lines and planes as the airport rushed to de-ice at the very last minute only to be canceled, unprepared. Lets remember, flight rules are generated by the NWS to the airport.

As I have mentioned just before the storm, for whatever reason FW just completely dislikes using the winter storm watch idea. Sure it might not have been good enough for a winter storm warning but that can always be adjusted down to a winter weather advisory as we saw (though I do believe the warnings should've been extended at least another row of counties). Winter weather is unlike severe weather where being prepared timely can help us ride it out without much havoc or chaos.

Thirdly, perhaps all this was due to the fact some people and forecasters used the term "it went further south than expected." as the excuse afterward. This was only true if you hugged the GFS and NAM, one global and one high res. ALL the other global guidance were screaming south and we even talked about why the southern solution made much more sense, vorticity and surface low was way south, why then would one consider the furthest north solution as the key forecast? Euro and ukmet (even cmc) were rock solid within 3 days (not the precip amounts) but overall which path it took. So it only went further south than expected if you went against the global consensus.