![Image](http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/1412/sh0513.gif)
WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.4S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.8S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.7S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
281110Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM THAT TC 05P HAS REACHED THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES AND A 280902Z SSMIS PASS. TC 05P IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND TRACKS TOWARD THE
BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF TC 05P, WITH THE GFS AND GFDN
SHOWING A STEADY RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOWER POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING POLEWARD WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT
THIS POINT THAT ANY DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH OR EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EQUATORWARD TO INDUCE FULL RECURVATURE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR A STEADY POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST SCENARIO.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 271430Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 271430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
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