Texas Winter 2012-2013

[ndale]

Since I am bad at reading models, how much is the Canadian predicting.

Maybe 2-4"? Officially the city hasn't seen much if any for a long time so that statement is a little misleading but still true!

I don't think we have had 4 inches since the mid 80s, if then.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is that high in the Rockies for real? 1049-1051? Thats not a 'cold' high though is it? Not of Arctic orgin. I love that we have another storm to watch. Dont count Houston out yet.

Is it possible that the storm can get close enough to the gulf that a gulf low can form and bring us some white stuff or am i dreaming?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Since I am bad at reading models, how much is the Canadian predicting.

Maybe 2-4"? Officially the city hasn't seen much if any for a long time so that statement is a little misleading but still true!

I don't think we have had 4 inches since the mid 80s, if then.

Jan 1985, i read a report by NWS where there was a storm that brought 15 inches to some spots.

[Stormlover2012]

looking at cmc it could b close!!

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,here is JB's take. Ntxw, he is with your idea.

I will sum up the GFS next week with this map and leave it at that. I dont believe a trough will lock off in the rockies with a trough coming into the west coast and believe the threat of a major storm on the east coast next week with severe cold is still on the table, So 5 days from now, we can look back at this and laugh, or look at it and see how close it gets

[NDG]

I wouldn't bite on last night's ECMWF solution just yet if I was in the Houston area, that model has been more erronous than not in its mid range forecast in deepening troughs too much.

[ndale]

The storm in 85 is probably what I am thinking about, my dad in San Antonio had 12 inches, in Austin where I was it was about 4 inches.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The storm in 85 is probably what I am thinking about, my dad in San Antonio had 12 inches, in Austin where I was it was about 4 inches.

Thats it. Google that storm and a great report on it will pop up. This setup looks very similar iirc

[NDG]

Hey folks,here is JB's take. Ntxw, he is with your idea.

I will sum up the GFS next week with this map and leave it at that. I dont believe a trough will lock off in the rockies with a trough coming into the west coast and believe the threat of a major storm on the east coast next week with severe cold is still on the table, So 5 days from now, we can look back at this and laugh, or look at it and see how close it gets

So JB is going with an idea of a major east coast storm and not with snow for south TX? That is what I am taking out of it.
It would not make sense for an east coast storm with the NAO now positive.

[Ntxw]

So JB is going with an idea of a major east coast storm and not with snow for south TX? That is what I am taking out of it.
It would not make sense for an east coast storm with the NAO now positive.

He's a little bias for the east coast. His GFS is going to be wrong idea is a good one but the storm track up the coast is unlikely, good call with the +NAO, I think a path straight out to the Carolina coast is better

[Portastorm]

In terms of significant (more than an inch and a half) snowfall, the last time we saw anything in Austin was on February 14, 2004, when we received 1.6 inches. Prior to that it was January 1985 when Austin received two separate snowfalls of significance. On January 2nd, Austin received 3.9 inches and on Jan. 12-13, Austin received 3.6 inches. I remember both quite well.

[ndale]

If January 1985, Austin received two separate snowfalls of significance. On January 2nd, Austin received 3.9 inches and on Jan. 12-13, Austin received 3.6 inches. I remember both quite well.

Yeah Portastorm I remember I was almost shocked that we could receive 2 snowfalls in the same winter much less in 10 days of one another.

[Ntxw]

Is that high in the Rockies for real? 1049-1051? Thats not a 'cold' high though is it? Not of Arctic orgin. I love that we have another storm to watch. Dont count Houston out yet.

Big high's in the rockies are mostly due to elevation and are not of Arctic origins. We want to see it in the northern/central plains.

Edit: Euro is a go for sneaux in Austin, Del Rio, Midland, Waco and even some for the Metroplex and Tyler

[Ntxw]

There is a little caveat on the models that do show winter precipitation. 540 thickness lies roughly from Midland to Dallas, everything behind this is snow but the freeze line is from Tyler to Austin to Del Rio. That says between the two zones a lot of it will fall as sleet or freezing rain. This is overrunning and not a wound up trowal event so I'm a little concerned about the ICE factor.

[weatherguy425]

Is that high in the Rockies for real? 1049-1051? Thats not a 'cold' high though is it? Not of Arctic orgin. I love that we have another storm to watch. Dont count Houston out yet.

Big high's in the rockies are mostly due to elevation and are not of Arctic origins. We want to see it in the northern/central plains.

Edit: Euro is a go for sneaux in Austin, Del Rio, Midland, Waco and even some for the Metroplex and Tyler

Even some for NW Texas! Lines up nicely with what he 12z GFS was hinting at.

[Stormlover2012]

we still have 3 more days till i believe models

[TexasF6]

How long & how cold will this event be? Multiple days below freezing?

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run of today's GFS is introducing moisture over the cold air in Northern Texas and Southern Arkansas Wednesday-Thursday. The previous GFS runs had been relatively dry for these areas. This is something to keep an eye on.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Portastorm]

How long & how cold will this event be? Multiple days below freezing?

If you go with what the Euro and CMC are saying ... there will probably be several days were temps are locked in the low 30s or upper 20s as the cold surface air is in place and overrunning, extensive cloudiness keeps temps near steady.

Actually, what the Euro and CMC are showing is a classic, almost textbook example of how we can winter weather events in central and south Texas. I'd look for a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across a wide scope of the state.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

at TPB weather center we arent getting above 45 today. Bone chilling cold with the fire on as we speak