Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Ah now I see why you folks wanted the cold so bad ........

The crazy Canadian probably influenced this so not sure if it is what you folks are looking at.

[dhweather]

It's not the NYE system folks are talking about, there's a shortwave that supposed to come through on Wednesday or Thursday, but it appears there will be be little to no moisture for it to work with.

[Portastorm]

It's not the NYE system folks are talking about, there's a shortwave that supposed to come through on Wednesday or Thursday, but it appears there will be be little to no moisture for it to work with.

I think the moisture question depends on where you are in the state. There will be increasing amounts of moisture available the further south in the state you go. A coastal trough is progged to develop and that will provide moisture for southeast Texas. The bigger question is how to handle the energy with the 500mb trough moving west to east across the Plains on Wed-Thur. As I showed earlier today, the GFS is really struggling with how to handle the southern stream energy. If the southern stream energy is stronger than progged than the Plains trough will be weaker and there will be more moisture to work with.

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing something else interesting tonight from the NAM. The 0z NAM run, just out, shows a stronger cutoff low at the base of the trough in northern Mexico valid 12z Thursday. This model has been strengthening the low since its 12z run earlier today. The Euro has been the model which has suggested this low in northern Mexico would be the one to provide a possibility of wintry precip for central and south Texas later next week. This is a trend worth keeping an eye on.

[JonathanBelles]

I'll be in your next of the woods (Austin, TX) on Friday and will be there for a week. I either want snow on the ground or a lot of cold air while I am there! Any promises? lol

[Portastorm]

I'll be in your next of the woods (Austin, TX) on Friday and will be there for a week. I either want snow on the ground or a lot of cold air while I am there! Any promises? lol

Sheesh ... you're next asking much, are you?!

I'm sure you're coming for the AMS convention. I think we'll have below normal temps for you ... the snow thing ... heh, that would be a near miracle. We can't even get it to rain here let alone snow.

I can promise you some great Tex-Mex food, a cool atmosphere, a fantastic music scene, and our legendary hip Austin atmosphere.

[JonathanBelles]

I'll be in your next of the woods (Austin, TX) on Friday and will be there for a week. I either want snow on the ground or a lot of cold air while I am there! Any promises? lol

Sheesh ... you're next asking much, are you?!

I'm sure you're coming for the AMS convention. I think we'll have below normal temps for you ... the snow thing ... heh, that would be a near miracle. We can't even get it to rain here let alone snow.

I can promise you some great Tex-Mex food, a cool atmosphere, a fantastic music scene, and our legendary hip Austin atmosphere.

Sounds great! And, yes i'll be there for the AMS convention. Will I be seeing you there?

[Ntxw]

Pfft He's just being modest JonathanBelles! He delivers, his motto is if you want snow, you got SNOW!

[Portastorm]

You know Jonathan, I'm disappointed that the AMS did not invite the Portastorm Weather Center to have a booth at the conference or to present.

Seriously ... I have no business being with a group of meteorological students and professional meteorologists who actually know what they're talking about it when it comes to weather. Folks like you! But that being said, I think the head of the Portastorm Weather Center may be making an appearance or two and hanging out with several of his pro met buddies from Austin. I'll be looking for ya.

I'll also work on that winter weather for you. Maybe I can get Ntxw to send some of his winter "luck" down my way.

[orangeblood]

Energy coming out of the northern stream has been trending further southwest with each run....if it can get far enough southwest it should eject the shortwave sliding down towards Baja across Texas. Can it pull enough Pacific moisture with it will be the biggest ?

SREF lastest model run shows this exact scenario - snow breaking out across the Permian Basin Thursday morning

[Portastorm]

Energy coming out of the northern stream has been trending further southwest with each run....if it can get far enough southwest it should eject the shortwave sliding down towards Baja across Texas. Can it pull enough Pacific moisture with it will be the biggest ?

SREF lastest model run shows this exact scenario - snow breaking out across the Permian Basin Thursday morning

Yep. That's another thing for us to watch. Both the 15z and 21z SREF ensemble means have shown frozen precip breaking out in west Texas and moving into the central part of the state at or around 12z Thursday.

[dhweather]

RAIN in the western half of the state - AMEN, check your favorite radar source for more info.

Roughly Sherman, to De Rio and westward right now. Nearly the whole state shoud get some rain, when is the last time that happened?

[Rgv20]

0zGFS follows its previous run on showing some possible winter fun for South Texas come Thursday night!

[Ntxw]

The ukmet continues to be the lonely model that sends a coastal low from Texas to the lower Miss. It is the outlier compared to everyone else, but at least it's the model that has not changed throughout. Cross your fingers!

[Ntxw]

I know it's the nogaps, but it sure looks nice! Phases both vorticies instead of keeping them seperate like the ukmet.

And remember folks, we're talking about a system that is still sitting in the Pacific Ocean

[Longhornmaniac8]

This may seem like a silly question, but what is meant by the term "phases/phasing?"

I've seen it used quite a lot on here, but never really understood what it meant.

Thanks!

Cheers,
Cameron

[Ntxw]

This may seem like a silly question, but what is meant by the term "phases/phasing?"

When two or more jet streams, usually the subtropical jet and polar jet merge. You see them at 500mb as the wind fields joining and cyclogenesis occurs for a big storm. When they are not "phased" generally you will see a northern storm shear the southern system apart.

[Longhornmaniac8]

This may seem like a silly question, but what is meant by the term "phases/phasing?"

When two or more jet streams, usually the subtropical jet and polar jet merge. You see them at 500mb as the wind fields joining and cyclogenesis occurs for a big storm. When they are not "phased" generally you will see a northern storm shear the southern system apart.

Awesome! Thanks for the explanation, Ntxw!

Cheers,
Cameron

[wxman57]

I'll be in your next of the woods (Austin, TX) on Friday and will be there for a week. I either want snow on the ground or a lot of cold air while I am there! Any promises? lol

I'll be there, too. Staying at the Hilton for the AMS conference. Will drive there next Monday and attend the tropical talks Tue/Wed then drive home.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm headed to Austin in a few hours to ring in the new years with some friends. Hopefully we dont get dumped on!