Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected for the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI DEC 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FROM TIME TO TIME. INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS MOVING WESTWARDS IN
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION AS NO SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...A SLIGHT CHOP CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY NEW YEARS DAY. WITH THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SWELL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 72 / 30 20 10 10
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

December 28 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:37 a.m.
 5:40 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:42 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:43 a.m.
 5:46 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like the NE Caribbean will enjoy plenty of good weather to ring the new year.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST FRI DEC 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CUBA TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL PASS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY AND RETURN THE FOLLOWING MONDAY TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOWS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE UNTIED
STATES WILL SOMEWHAT ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF US LATE SUNDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RE-
STRENGTHENS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND TRADE WINDS
LADEN WITH SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS FORMED AS OF MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
MAINLAND OF PUERTO RICO EVEN AS TINY SHOWERS DRIFTED BY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN WERE STRONGER BUT WERE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGS
IN DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY MOISTURE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY...OTHERWISE CLIMATE
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH HIGHER SWELL INVADING ON NEW YEARS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 71 82 / 20 10 10 10
STT 74 85 73 85 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Congrats to our friend in CentralAmerica Macrocane for his birthday. Have many,many more my friend.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few scattered showers will move thru the NE Caribbean but for the most part,good weather is expected for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT DEC 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...THEN LIFT
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND LATER
REINFORCE THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT
LIVED AND OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH CONTINUED DECREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THE DOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
EACH MORNING...THEN IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.
EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW -SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ IN THE MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 73 86 74 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

December 29 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:37 a.m.
 5:42 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:42 a.m.
 5:47 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:43 a.m.
 5:48 p.m.
 


[Macrocane]

Congrats to our friend in CentralAmerica Macrocane for his birthday. Have many,many more my friend.

Thank you very much cycloneye!!!

[msbee]

Happy Belated Birthday :

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS AND PATCHES
OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW PASSING -SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ IN THE EVENING
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL 20/23Z...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS TONIGHT. AFTER 30/12Z WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 82 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 86 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Beautiful weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the final two days of 2012 and for the first days of 2013.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THOUGH
MONDAY. WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION INDUCED BY MIGRATORY HIGH
SHIFTING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR DATA TJSJ 30/00Z SHOWED MODERATE EASTERLIES
OF 10 TO 15 KTS BELOW 850 MILLIBARS...WITH WINDS BACKING AND
BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT UP TO 500 MILLIBARS WHERE THEY GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH HEIGHT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. ALSO NOTED WAS A
FAIRLY STRONG 4 DEGREE SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION NEAR 800 MILLIBARS
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED
FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CARRIED BY THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES.

EXPECT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING EASTERLIES
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
THAT AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SOME EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A GRADUALLY DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND THUS INCREASE
THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT LCL TAF SITES SUN/MON XCP BRIEF MVFR CIG IN
PSBL ISOLD SHRA. SOME MTN OBSC IN SHRA FOR INTERIOR PR SUN AFTERNOON
IN DVLPG CONVECTION. WIND MOSTLY VRBL 10 KT OR LESS BLO FL 100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 73 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 74 85 73 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST SUN DEC 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE
WILL STILL BE BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FA...
RESULTING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.
ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA COULD MEAN
VCSH FOR TIST AND TISX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN IN THE EVENING DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT...
CAUSING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AFTER 31/12Z INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...IN BUILDING LONG PERIOD...
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AND
ADJACENT WATERS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION...THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND ALTHOUGH IT
MAY END UP BORDERLINE ON THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 30 30 20 30
STT 74 85 73 85 / 30 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning on the last day of 2012. A few showers will move thru the NE Caribbean but for the most part good weather will prevail.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON DEC 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED BANDS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH NOW OVER THE REGION...AS WELL AS AN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH WHICH WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED HOLD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THUS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THE
PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT THE FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMNANTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... NEAR TO OR JUST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR PASSING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WILL
EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS INDUCE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS XPTD AT LCL TAF SITES THRU AT LEAST TUE XCP
MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA ALONG AND N OF NORTH COASTS. LLVL WIND NE
8-20 KT TO FL200 BCMG E ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL
THE SEAS AS A NORTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SEAS...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WIND WAVES AND
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL ACTION. IN ADDITION BY LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUEASDAY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE LIKELY AND
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY TUESDAY.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND COSTAL
WATERS FORECAST. ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN
JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 72 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 72 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

December 31rst Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:38 a.m.
 5:43 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:43 a.m.
 5:48 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:44 a.m.
 5:49 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Happy New Year 2013 to all our friends in the Caribbean and in CentralAmerica. If I left out someone,please tell me and I will add you.

msbee

Patti

Gustywind

Macrocane

Caribwxgurl

Firebird

abajan

BZSTORM

HurricaneFan

BatzVI

caribepr

bvigal

chrisjslucia

Jimsot

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON DEC 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE
LOCAL AREA WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA JUST AHEAD OF IT...CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FOR
TOMORROW...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL
WEATHER FAIRLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PATCHES OF
MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH CAUSING NOT MUCH MORE THAN JUST A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE TRADES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE LOCAL WINDS FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TIST...TJSJ...AND
TJBQ TONIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR CONDS WHILE
THE SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY PASSING BY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW DECREASING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN ONCE AGAIN INCREASING AFTER 01/12Z TO 10 TO 15
KTS.


&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST SWELLS WHICH WILL START
INVADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED WILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CHOPPY AS THESE NORTHWEST SWELLS COMBINE WITH THE EASTERLY WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL START TO GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
SOME AREAS AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE GRADUALLY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 81 / 30 30 20 20
STT 72 84 73 85 / 30 30 20 20

[Gustywind]

Happy New Year 2013 to all our friends in the Caribbean and in CentralAmerica. If I left out someone,please tell me and I will add you.

msbee

Patti

Gustywind

Macrocane

Caribwxgurl

Firebird

abajan

BZSTORM

HurricaneFan

BatzVI

caribepr

bvigal

chrisjslucia

Jimsot

HAPPY NEW YEAR Cycloneye... to our Superman: best wishes and continue the incredible job you do for the carib islanders, just crazy and unselfish as usual . Happy new year to all the others friends, we appreciate your great contribution each day All the very best for all!

[cycloneye]

Good morning on the first day of 2013!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST TUE JAN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS
OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ACROSS THE
FA...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH...AND LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT LCL TAF SITES THRU WED XCP BRIEF MVFR
IN ISOLD SHRA. LLVL WIND MAINLY E 15-25 KT TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH...AND LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OR WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

IN ADDITION...THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS
WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL PRODUCE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
AST WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 73 / 50 20 20 10
STT 84 73 85 75 / 40 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

First Jamaica forecast of 2013!

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:38 a.m.
 5:43 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:43 a.m.
 5:48 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:44 a.m.
 5:49 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST TUE JAN 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS..A RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CLUSTER ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES AND THE EAST AND NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MIMIC/CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS
INDICATED REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PWAT VALUES
WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS EVERY DAY
BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST CHANGING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BKN/OVC 060 CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS UNTIL
01/22Z WITH LLVL WINDS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NOAA WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL HEIGHT AT BUOY 41043. AS A RESULT...WE
HAVE TO INCREASE THE WAVE HEIGHTS ONE FEET IN OUR MARINE GRIDS.
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND DECLINES
GRADUALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 72 83 / 20 20 10 10
STT 78 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Happy New Year my friends!!! Have many many blessings on 2013.