Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Happy New year to all the gang!

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST WED JAN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ON THURSDAY A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES
TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY...THEN
RETURNS TO CUBA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO REBOUND ON
FRIDAY AFTER INITIAL DRYING. OVERALL HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS PASS BY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES THIS MORNING AND A FEW WERE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED IN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NOTICEABLE DRY BAND HAS FORMED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO BRING DRYER WEATHER TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURNS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE TRENDING TOWARD
DRIER WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED IN THE OVER ALL PATTERN AT
LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE
AREA. LATER SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC VERY
RAPIDLY BUT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE EFFECTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WAVE WATCH MODEL REFLECTS OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS OF
SLOW DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS. WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RETURNING
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS OVERALL WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 20 20 30 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED JAN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. 02/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 0.96 INCHES WITH THETAE VALUES AT
700MB AROUND 320K. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IN
GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BOUYS OBSERVATION INDICATED SWELLS ARE SUBSIDING
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 20 30 20 20
STT 74 85 75 87 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Latest HPC Discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST WED JAN 02 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JAN 02/00UTC: AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN-CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA-WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SUSTAINS A LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE DOMAIN...
INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS TO HOLD NEARLY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE
DAYS...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE ALSO REFLECTS AT LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...ANCHORING ON A HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 27N
63W. THE HIGH/RIDGE PAIR SUSTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT WHILE ALSO
FAVORING BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN/CARIBBEAN
BASIN. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CONFLUING ALONG AN
ASYMPTOTE THAT EXTENDS WEST JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THIS FAVORS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE
MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL HIGH RELOCATING EAST. AS IT
RELOCATES...AREA OF CONFLUENCE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WANE.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ARE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH 850 HPA WINDS TO PEAK AT 35-40KT
ACROSS THE ABC ISLES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IRREGULARLY
SPACED CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE TO EMBED IN THIS FLOW...AND QUICKLY
STREAM ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND CARIBBEAN BASIN. ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO/HISPANIOLA...THE MOST ACTIVE WITH THESE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS WHERE THEY ARE TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THROUGH
72-84 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WINDS ARE TO ALSO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH CELLS EXPECTED TO
PESTER THE USVI AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE ARE TO
GENERALLY FAVOR LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS. OTHER
ACTIVITY IS TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLES AND NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA/ABC ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM.

WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IS PRESSING AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THROUGH
30-36 HRS IT IS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH
SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA-THE GULF TO THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO. THIS IS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 48-54 HRS...WITH TAIL END TO RETROGRESS LATER IN
THE CYCLE. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MODELS SHOWING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE ARE
TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS VERACRUZ-TAMAULIPAS...WHERE
IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15--20MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...WHERE STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING
WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY BY 48-60 HRS. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS ACROSS MEXICO EARLY THIS CYCLE...IT IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CHIHUAHUA-SINALOA TO
GUERRERO/NAYARIT...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 36-48 HRS.

MODELS THEN FORECAST ANOTHER PERTURBATION ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. BY 42/48 HRS THE 500
HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS BAJA PENINSULA TO
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA...AND BY 66-72 HRS IT IS TO LIFT ALONG THE BORDER
TO TEXAS. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS THIS IS TO TRIGGER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH RISK OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS CHIHUAHUA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-12CM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20CM.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WITH AXIS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS A PERSISTENT TROUGH
PATTERN...WITH LITTLE TO NO MODULATION EXPECTED THROUGH 72-96 HRS.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC TO THE EJE CAFETERO IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH
ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND THIS IS A PATTERN THAT IS TO PERSIST. ALONG THE WESTERN
PLAINS OF COLOMBIA AND ANDEAN REGION EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY THROUGH 84 HRS.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE ATLANTIC...A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG
30W/35W TO 10N...THEN WEST ALONG 10N TO JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
AT LOW LEVELS THE ATLANTIC ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER AMAPA IN
NORTHERN BRASIL...THEN WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS TO
AMAZONAS IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER
TROUGH TO FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE GUIANAS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND
AGAIN BY 60-84 HRS.

[Macrocane]

An update with the observations from the cold front that produced the coldest temepratures in 2 years in San Salvador and Tegucigalpa: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2295224#p2295224

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST THU JAN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT SHIFTS TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WHILE LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGHOUT
WITH TRANSIENT SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN ON NWS RADAR. THIS
SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER YESTERDAY WHICH SAW
VERY LITTLE DUE TO THE VERY DRY AND STABLE NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE AREA YESTERDAY. SOUNDERS FROM BAYAMON AND SAINT
CROIX ARE SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
WITH SAINT CROIX AT 1.2 INCHES...UP ONE HALF INCH FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BAYAMON AT 1.0 INCHES...UP THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. THIS GIVES MORE CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS COULD INCREASE OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO WIND FLOW AT 850 MB SEEMS TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THAT SHOULD FAVOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
ISLAND. NEVERTHELESS SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BEFORE MID MORNING.

THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND THE STEADY FLOW OF
HIGH PRESSURES OUT OF THE UNITED STATES...BETWEEN LOWS...ENSURES
THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS CARRY PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SWITCH OF WINDS BACK TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE RISING AGAIN MID
WEEK AND 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SOLUTIONS OF THE
GFS AND THE EUROPEAN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST RUN WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY 13
JAN...BUT TROUGHING HANGING BACK TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN
THE GFS AT AROUND 240 HOURS. EFFECTS AT THE SURFACE COULD BE
MINIMAL HOWEVER.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE USVI/BVI WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR
THROUGH 03/12Z. AFTER 03/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST BUT
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM THE SFC TO FL020. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO INCREASE
AFT 03/09Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WILL DIMINISH
TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP SEAS
6 TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE EXPOSED WATERS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT HIGH SURF TO END TODAY AND HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AST DUE TO SWELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BREAKING WAVES 9 TO 11 FEET ON THE NORTHERN
COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 83 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 85 74 87 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

January 3rd Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 5:50 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 5:51 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST THU JAN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...AS MORE PATCHES MOVE THROUGH.
IN GENERAL...VERY DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 030-050 TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING TOMORROW. SFC WINDS 15G20KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 AND BUOY 41053 BOTH SHOWS A DECREASING TREND
IN THE SWELL ACTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ARE BELOW 7
FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AST.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 82 73 82 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 85 76 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST FRI JAN 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSH
BY THE AREA THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER EACH PASSAGE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM COAST TO COAST INDUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THIS LONG FETCH WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS THAT QUICKLY PASS BY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
YESTERDAY...RISING AT BAYAMON FROM 0.7 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE
MID AFTERNOON. SOUNDERS CURRENTLY INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE COME ONSHORE OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THESE WESTWARD MOVING
SHOWERS REMAINED SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM AND MODELS MOVE IT OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO PUERTO RICO DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
THEN. THEREAFTER A NUMBER OF WELL SEPARATED PATCHES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD TO LOCALLY SCT PASSING SHRA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE USVI/BVI WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR THROUGH 03/12Z. AFTER 03/12Z...SFC
WINDS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WINDS AROUND
20 KTS AT FL020 FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELL HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WITH THEM SEAS WILL RISE INTO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CATEGORY...MAINLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ALSO ON SATURDAY ANOTHER TRAIN OF 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELL WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTH TO ADD TO THE DIFFICULTY IN NAVIGATING THESE
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 73 83 75 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

January 4 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 5:50 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 5:51 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SAT AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER
MID NEXT WEEK AS STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS GREATLY
SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CHANCES. LATEST GFES SHOW LOCAL
AREA IN A RAINFALL MINIMA THROUGH NEXT FRI INDICATING THE CHANCES
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL. THERE WILL STILL
BE THE RISK OF CLOUD CLUSTERS FORMING AT NIGHT AND AFFECT ERN
SECTIONS OF PR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS FROM THE GFS ARE VERY DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUN AND TUE AS TRADES
STRENGTHEN. OVERALL THEME IS FOR DRY WEATHER...STRENGTHENING WINDS
AND INCREASING FIRE DANGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SAT AND RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. SEAS INCREASE FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG SFC HIGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST US TUE AND REINFORCES AN
ALREADY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT THU WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH WEAKENS AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE HAS BEEN BURNING PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY NEAR
POZO HONDO IN GUAYAMA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS GREATLY
SUPPRESSING RAINFALL CHANCES. AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND WINDS
STRENGTHEN ANTICIPATE A SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AT TIMES AND EXPECT A
COUPLE OF DAYS THAT THICK CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE FIRE RISK BUT
OVERALL SHOULD SEE A LOT MORE SUNNY THAN CLOUDY DAYS RESULTING IN
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES LIKE WAS THE CASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 83 / 20 20 10 20
STT 76 86 76 86 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SAT JAN 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FOCUS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BEGIN DRIFTING WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND END UP IN THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NEXT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHS MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES
REFRESH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MAINTAIN
THE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
THROUGH BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE WINDWARD THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY FROM TOA BAJA TO
AGUADILLA. THESE AREAS RECEIVED UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN SOME NEAR
THE COAST AND UP TO 1 INCH IN ARECIBO. SHOWERS WERE LIGHTER FROM
NAGUABO TO SAN JUAN. SHOWERS WERE NOT OBSERVED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AFTER 9 PM BY RADAR OR AT THE AIRPORTS.

MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ARE IN
GENERAL MISPLACING THE SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCURRING. THE NAM IS
BRINGING TOO MUCH RAIN INTO THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND ALMOST
NONE ON THE COASTS WHERE IT IS OCCURRING. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE
TO FRESH AND THE 05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
INVERSION OF ABOUT 1900 FEET. BELOW THIS THE AIR WAS NEARLY
SATURATED. WINDS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE INVERSION WERE SOME 10 KNOTS
HIGHER AND THE AIR WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. NEVERTHELESS THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO THE ON-GOING NATURE OF
THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE ON AND OFF NATURE OF THE MOISTURE IN
THAT FLOW OUT OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND SOME OF THAT WILL ARRIVE HERE WITH THE NEXT INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE MODELS SHOWN ON MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. ONE NOTE...THE
NAM MOISTURE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE RELIABLE AFTER SUNDAY AND THERE
IS ALMOST ONE HALF INCH LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN ITS SOLUTION BY MONDAY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN THE UPCOMING
FIVE DAYS...PASSING SHOWERS AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES...LESS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLD TO LOCALLY SCT PASSING SHRA..ESPECIALLY BEFORE
05/16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 05/12Z. AFTER 05/12Z...SFC WINDS FROM
THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MOST AREAS...WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AT FL020
AND 30 KTS AT FL070.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN ALL BUT
THE MOST PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORT
BREAK IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 75 86 76 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

January 5 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

January 5 2013
 
Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Mainly fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:39 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:44 a.m.
 5:50 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:45 a.m.
 5:51 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT JAN 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH WED AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER HIGHER PRES WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST US
MON NIGHT AND REINFORCE THE PRES GRADIENT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS AT NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. LATEST GFS LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS SHOW THE RISK OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE THEN
DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WED. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST
TO WEAKEN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC MODELS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERSISTING UNDER
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. EAST
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ALREADY VERIFYING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30G36 MPH AT ST. CROIX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEAK
NEXT TUE OR WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT IN LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SVRL FIRES HAVE BEEN BURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY WHERE FUELS ARE DRY AND RH`S IN THE LOW 40S. WHILE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN LATEST GFS SUGGESTS
SUBSTANTIAL MORE CLOUD CVR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY SUN
AND TUE LIKELY PUTTING A DENT ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SIG DRYING IS FCST FOR NEXT WED WHEN WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 82 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 86 76 86 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning on Three Kings Day in PR,DR,Cuba and in CentralAmerica.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG INVERSION OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THIS WEEK IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED
THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH IS PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT ISOLATED
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...WITH SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WHICH IS THE AREA THAT HAS
HIGHER MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 FEET
TODAY AND REMAIN AT 7 TO 8 FEET FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
ANY CHANGES IN SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY GRADUAL AND
SUBTLE AS LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE AND AS
SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 82 72 / 30 40 40 50
STT 85 75 86 76 / 20 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

January 6 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN JAN 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES EAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PATCHES OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES THO ISOLD SHRA PROVIDE OUTSIDE
CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. WINDS E
25-35 KT FROM FL010 TO FL150 WL PERSIST INTO MON...WITH DAYTIME SFC
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT MOST TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 83 / 40 40 50 50
STT 75 86 76 86 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST MON JAN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE TRANSPORTING THESE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.3 INCHES PER LATEST
07/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING. ALSO...THETAE VALUES AT 700 MB WERE NEAR
316K. DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AFFECTING HE REGION. VERY TYPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE MONTH OF
JANUARY. N THE LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT HE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AREAS OF MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE OR INCREASE FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ARND 07/18Z IN CIGS AND SHRA.
EAST WINDS ALF INCR FROM 10 TO 15 KT AT THE SFC TO ARND 35 KT AT 10
KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 40 50 50 20
STT 85 75 87 77 / 30 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

January 7 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 5:47 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 5:52 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 5:53 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST MON JAN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP PERHAPS IN ISOLD SHRA BEGINNING LATE
TONITE. WIND SFC TO FL150 E 18-35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 20 40 20 30
STT 75 87 77 86 / 20 30 20 20