Texas Winter 2012-2013

[CaptinCrunch]

February 1899 - The Big One: It was perhaps only fitting that the 19th century close out with the worst cold spell ever known to Texas. The infamous freeze of February 11-13, 1899, arrived almost four years to the day after the 1895 snowstorm. Though not quite the longest freeze ever known, it did bring two nights of unbelievably intense cold to the entire state and much of the nation. Low temperature records were shattered throughout much of the United States, many of which still stand today. It was probably the single worst Arctic outbreak to ever affect the United States.

Not unlike the 1983 freeze, the 1899 freeze came toward the end of a long cold spell which had been persisting throughout much of the country. North Texas was gripped in subfreezing temperatures for over a week preceding the big outbreak. Then during the day of the 11th, the roof caved in.

Temperatures began falling as the day progressed. By late afternoon, readings in the mid to upper twenties were entrenched along the central and upper coast. The real cold arrived later that night. Even when measured against the worst cold waves, this was unbelievable. The event was well recorded in Dallas. Dallas had seen an inch of snow on the 11th, and after sunset the temperature quickly fell from 20° above to 2° below by 8:00 p.m. Nearly every thermometer in town recorded -10° to -11° the next morning. By 11:00 a.m. on the 12th, the mercury had only risen to -5°, and by 8:00 in the evening it had climbed to a balmy 10° above, only to fall back to zero by midnight again (that'll certainly put a damper on palm growing in the Big D).

Down in central Texas, Austin dropped to -1° and downtown San Antonio recorded 4 1/2° above zero, with a maximum of 25° the afternoon of the 12th. Many thermometers around the Alamo city hit zero, and it was cold enough for boys to skate on the frozen San Antonio River. Cuero was particularly cold for central Texas, reporting -4°.

Most amazing were the reports from the Weather Bureau of Galveston. The temperature there started out at 28° the evening of the 11th, and had fallen to 10° by 8:00 a.m. on a cloudy, windy morning. The strongest part of the cold air evidently passed over them late that morning. After sunrise, the temperature did not go up but instead continued to fall through the morning, bottoming out at 7 1/2° around 11:00 a.m. By 1:00 p.m. the mercury was still at 11°. Not only is that the lowest temperature ever recorded in Galveston, but it came nearly at midday under a cloudy, windy sky (the next night, incidentally, the skies cleared and the wind calmed but the temperature did not drop below 10°). A few places west of Galveston on the bay were known to have frozen completely over from the barrier island to the mainland.

[Ivanhater]

Starting to get a little excited in San Angelo....

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A STERLING CITY...TO SAN ANGELO...

[Snowman67]

*sigh*

Forget the Arctic, how about the new Siberia? Even our fans won't be able to save you (we're kinda chilly already maybe stave off a degree or two). Perhaps sending Wxman57 up there to radiate some heat off his body to warm you up! Even his warm hearted nature lately has been dampened by cold's misery unfortunately

I may have to travel farther south than the Equator to escape the cold later this month. Don't like the look of the long-range GFS pattern and other signals. They don't say 80 degrees for Houston. Just learned it's confirmed I will be traveling to Norway in April on business. I renewed my old passport in 2007 in hopes of a business trip to the Caribbean, not to the North Pole. Typical Norway weather in April is much like today over SE TX. Lows in the 30s, highs in the 40s. 14hrs of sunlight by then, though the sun is not very high over the horizon.

This is great news for most of us on this board.

[dhweather]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

No dude ... we don't want that again. Even the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will not enjoy a true McFarland Signature, Arctic outbreak. Those create widespread misery for most Texans.

Yeah, its not like a decade of severe drought has caused any misery.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get a little excited in San Angelo....

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A STERLING CITY...TO SAN ANGELO...

Is this the first threat of snow since you arrived there? If so hope you get lots and lots . Maybe the NAM will verify and the Midland-San Angelo corridor will be a winter wonderland

18z GFS is wetter for a lot of Texas. Lets see what tonight's 0z show. It's saying a closed low will form and swing through, may surprise many

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COLD DAY HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. THE 140-150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS OVER OUR REGION TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR TONIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS MORNING BUT
STILL IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WILL RETURN
TOMORROW KEEPING THE HIGHS STILL IN THE 40S. UNDERCUT MOS BY QUITE
A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW WITH THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
RETURN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
PLAINS BUT OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TOMORROW AND THEN COMES INTO PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT WILL BREAK OFF THE PLAINS TROUGH. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT IT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE CWA OR AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THE DISTURBANCE IS RELATIVELY
WEAK AND THUS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THEREFORE EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE OR EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...BEFORE DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
OF 30 PERCENT IN THESE COUNTIES. AFTER DAYBREAK...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM OCCASIONALLY REACHING THE GROUND. DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DISCREPANCIES ON THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...KEPT POPS LOW
AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY PREVENT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME BUT MOST FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER. ELSEWHERE...A
TRACE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH
OF I-20 MAY ONLY SEE SOME FLURRIES IF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH. AS SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
START TO WARM FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHOT FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AGAIN THE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN RATES OR ACCUMULATIONS. BY SATURDAY...850 MB WINDS
HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
AND EXPECT ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SETTLES IN FOR A FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS TROUGH THROUGH
TEXAS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE BLENDED TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE COULD BE ADJUSTED EITHER WAY IN THE FUTURE.

A DRY FORECAST AND SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM COMING INTO TEXAS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. THIS SYSTEM IS
JUST BEYOND THE EXTENT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT IT WILL BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Ivanhater]

Starting to get a little excited in San Angelo....

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A STERLING CITY...TO SAN ANGELO...

Is this the first threat of snow since you arrived there? If so hope you get lots and lots . Maybe the NAM will verify and the Midland-San Angelo corridor will be a winter wonderland

18z GFS is wetter for a lot of Texas. Lets see what tonight's 0z show. It's saying a closed low will form and swing through, may surprise many

It will be..I got here in July and leave in March. If it is going to be cold, it better snow! How much is the Nam and 18z GFS showing?

[Dean4Storms]

Thought you guys/gals might be interested in this concerning the Stratospheric warming taking place....

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

[Snowman67]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DFW AND AND IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT 300 MILES SSE OF GALVESTON. A LARGE
SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MEXICO
AND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND UP INTO ARKANSAS. THIS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE PRODUCING CIGS OF 1200 FEET NEAR THE COAST AND SLOPING UP
TO AROUND 10-12000FT OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC PLOTS
SHOW THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE REGION SLOWLY SWINGING TO THE WSW-W
BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND DRYING OUT. THE BACK EDGE IS ALREADY
INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE RAINFALL INTENSITY IS LETTING
UP HERE AT THE OFFICE AS IT APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR UP AND DOWN THE
COAST.

COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A SHORT BREAKS UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TEMPERATURES OR JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER.

UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND
THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
N-NE LL FLOW IN PLACE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LIFT WILL
BE INCREASING BUT MAY WELL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN 1/2 OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND
POSSIBLE EVEN SLEET ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WET-BULBING MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
FREEZING AROUND HOUSTON COUNTY AT 5-7 AM FRIDAY. MAY HAVE SOME ICY
BRIDGES BUT THE MODELS HAVEN`T BEEN THAT CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND IT WOULD HAVE TO FALL BEFORE WE GOT TO
FREEZING FOR THE ICY ROADS TO DEVELOP MOST LIKELY. THE LOW MOVES
INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT COMES INTO SETX SUNDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING BACK THE MOISTURE. GFS/ECMWF
DIFFERING ON THE TIMING BUT BOTH POINT TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE US/MEX BORDER EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK. LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

[Ivanhater]

Just checked the 18z GFS...coming in for a good bit of snow for San Angelo

[Portastorm]

Thought you guys/gals might be interested in this concerning the Stratospheric warming taking place....

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

Thanks for the link. Wow ... talk about your "Day After Tomorrow" scenarios!

[bella_may]

Thought you guys/gals might be interested in this concerning the Stratospheric warming taking place....

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

McFarland Signature.

[TexasF6]

Thought you guys/gals might be interested in this concerning the Stratospheric warming taking place....

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

Awesome information! I wonder if a conversion on those possible temps from kelvin can be done? Porta?

[serenata09]

NWS FWD is forecasting a slight chance of snow overnight Thursday for Dallas proper.

[Ntxw]

Another great run from the 18z GFS pattern wise (not that it's a great run in itself but the trend) a big high is coming down the planks EPO about as negative as you will get

[Portastorm]

Thought you guys/gals might be interested in this concerning the Stratospheric warming taking place....

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... nfirm.html

Awesome information! I wonder if a conversion on those possible temps from kelvin can be done? Porta?

I honestly don't know and would defer to one of our pro mets or one of our educated amateurs. I know how to convert Kelvin temps to Farenheit, but I don't think those CFSv2 maps show straight Kelvin temps. I do know that when you see that shade of blue covering the Plains and Texas ... it means temps are going to be ridiculously cold and well below normal.

[gpsnowman]

167 pages in Texas Winter 2011-2012. We are sitting at 108 this year already. We may go past 167 tonight! This winter will crush last year. Interesting weather coming up.

[Ntxw]

Advisories are up for the western part of the state

***

STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-
SUTTON-MENARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...
BALLINGER...WINTERS...MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...
ELDORADO...SONORA...MENARD
254 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

* EVENT....LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA CAUSING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A STERLING
CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

***

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A HOBBS TO MIDLAND TO BIG LAKE
LINE...

.COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THROUGH
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE... A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE... SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
AS THE COLUMN COOLS. 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE FIRST 12 HOURS IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH THE
BULK OF THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH.

***

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS ON APPROACH FOR THE
BORDERLAND REGION FOR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT ARRIVING IN THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS COLD AIR
MASS WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR ELEVATIONS
FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH THIS STORM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THAT AREA. EL PASO AND
OTERO COUNTIES COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT WITH SNOW ENDING BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

[ndale]

Portastorm looks like Austin nws is trying to tell us not to expect much in Austin.

AROUND THE EDGE OF THIS AREA THERE COULD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO BURNET COUNTY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WINTER PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just made the drive back from Ausitn and had no sleet Stayed between 40-42 the whole way. Catching up on the models and what i missed as we speak. Havent looked at the 12 or 18z models yet so im excited!!!

Also, 1989 cold snap is the cold snap that made me a weather freak i am today. Unreal cold with snow that stuck around for a few days. Our alaskan malamute loved it !