Texas Winter 2012-2013

[HouTXmetro]

Ntxw please the decipher the map you posted as far as what its showing and time frame.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

FW AFD Update at 9:44 PM is interesting. Acknowledges latest runs of NAM and GFS but says it will use beyond initial period:

Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 944 PM CST Wednesday Jan 2 2013 Update... skies have cleared a little sooner than expected across the northwestern third/half of the forecast area...so have had to adjust the cloud cover and the hourly temperature grids accordingly. Have looked at the 00z runs of the NAM and GFS but will not make any adjustments beyond the first period of the forecast at this time. 58

[Ntxw]

Ntxw please the decipher the map you posted as far as what its showing and time frame.

It means that it's mere coincident a major stratwarm event is unfolding while the models strangely agree long term, with record snowfall across the US and that the AO is putting up a fit about going positive between now and the 10th, afterward who knows! I don't know if I should even believe it!

[Rgv20]

Look at this Ntxw even the long range Canadian looks like it wants to join the GFS/ECMWF....


0zCMC forecast valid for Saturday Evening January 12

[Snowbeagle]

Look at this Ntxw even the long range Canadian looks like it wants to join the GFS/ECMWF....


0zCMC forecast valid for Saturday Evening January 12
*snip*

hmm. maybe we'll get some nice freezing weather to kill all the hibernating insects over here in centeal AL.. preferably 3 days without going much above 32.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE STORM
SYSTEMS LIFTS NORTHEAST. CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY AND COLD INITIALLY WITH TIME
NEEDED TO SATURATED THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR. SATURATION OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM AND LIFT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SPREAD INTO
FAR WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT SNOW
OR SLEET...OR EVEN FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 35
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AMONGST FORECAST MODELS REGARDING STORM
TRACK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND WHERE THE BEST LIGHT
SLEET OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOWER
AMOUNTS AND THOSE THAT RECEIVE A DUSTING OR EVEN JUST A FEW
FLURRIES OR PELLETS OF SLEET. AREAS WITH TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COULD BECOME IMPACTED AND ICY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH ANY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET.

BOTTOM LINE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR
SNOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO TEMPLE LINE ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION EITHER MIXING OR CHANGING OVER
TO ALL RAIN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
THROUGH TONIGHT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

[cycloneye]

This is Ryan Maue's take in a tweet:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Forecast snow depth Friday morning for Rio Grande, major winter storm.

[iorange55]

00Z NAM sim radar...



Oh and also this tidbit from the DFW NWS in their morning discussion...

OTHERWISE...LONG RANGE MODEL
DATA SHOWS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS TYPE OF
SET-UP MAY PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RANGE...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW COLD.

[ndale]

My local forecast from Austin nws is now showing snow/sleet/rain here in north Austin for tonight and tomorrow morning.

[NDG]

GFS Ensembles want to put the PNA back to negative with King euro on its side, I would throw the GFS Operational's runs of its medium to long range out the window which show a positive PNA pattern to stay in place.

[Portastorm]

My local forecast from Austin nws is now showing snow/sleet/rain here in north Austin for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Yep. How about that?! Now, isn't it time you trusted your Grey Goose-swilling mets from the Portastorm Weather Center ... you know, the ones who have been telling you about this possible event for a week now?!

The PWC will be holding a press conference later this morning with its forecast for tonight/tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

GFS Ensembles want to put the PNA back to negative with King euro on its side, I would throw the GFS Operational's runs of its medium to long range out the window which show a positive PNA pattern to stay in place.

That is true and it's very interesting because the negative PNA would be facing a negative AO, NAO, and EPO. All of the other teleconnection signals and many analog comparisons indicate support an Arctic outbreak later this month. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Also, those ensemble teleconnection forecasts only go out to 1/13. My sense of any Arctic outbreak based on discussion has been after 1/13. We shall see.

[northjaxpro]

Look at this Ntxw even the long range Canadian looks like it wants to join the GFS/ECMWF....


0zCMC forecast valid for Saturday Evening January 12

I have been paying attention to this with the long range model runs. So far, we have yet to see the pattern bring down a true arctic air mass east of the Rockies in the USA this winter season. We are still 7-10 days away to see if this pans out. We should have some good indications over this upcoming weekend with the models with regards to a possible pattern change and how cold it may get.

[Ntxw]

GFS Ensembles want to put the PNA back to negative with King euro on its side, I would throw the GFS Operational's runs of its medium to long range out the window which show a positive PNA pattern to stay in place.

This is incorrect. Ridging into Alaska off the west coast is -PNA, so they are not showing a positive PNA. They are showing a very -EPO

[NDG]

GFS Ensembles want to put the PNA back to negative with King euro on its side, I would throw the GFS Operational's runs of its medium to long range out the window which show a positive PNA pattern to stay in place.

This is incorrect. Ridging into Alaska off the west coast is -PNA, so they are not showing a positive PNA. They are showing a very -EPO

This is what I am referring to:

[Ntxw]

This is what I am referring to:

Ah ok, I got confused which period you were talking about. Sure, 300+ hours of it I don't buy at all. Just the period between the 192-240 which agrees with the other two globals, which do have the -PNA as you see on that graph as well .

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
422 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...


MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS HAVE INDICATED
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY COLD COLUMN...A GOOD PORTION OF THIS SHOULD END UP
BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35/35 WEST CORRIDOR WHERE PARTIAL THICKNESSES NEARER
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW.
PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...OR SOMEWHERE IN THE
60-80TH PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE COULD
BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM A
DUSTING TO AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF I35/35W. FARTHER EAST...SNOW IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY BUT LIGHT OR NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. THE
LEAST LIKELY REGION FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET MIGHT
END UP BEING MORE PROBABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
RESPECTIVE WINTER PRECIPITATION PARAMETERS...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST
TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER SPS TO FURTHER THE LATEST
THINKING...INCLUDING COORDINATING INPUT FROM SURROUNDING WFOS.
WILL WAIT FOR THE DAY CREW TO ASSESS 12Z AND LATER MODEL DATA AS
THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER AND LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF NIXING
THE WSW IDEA IF THE SYSTEM LOOKS WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED...OR GOING
WITH AN ADVISORY IF THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES MORE
LIKELY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE THINKING FOR NOW
IS THAT PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE RAIN. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SYSTEM IN CASE SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX BECOMES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND UPDATE THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

FOR NEXT WEEK...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW ACCELERATES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
A DYNAMIC SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
GENERATE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BOTH BE LACKING...BUT
THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. OTHERWISE...LONG RANGE MODEL
DATA SHOWS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS TYPE OF
SET-UP MAY PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RANGE...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW COLD

[Ntxw]

Midland and San Angelo should be seeing some light snow soon

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

AS ANTICIPATED...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS E ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA CLEARING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE FOR A CHANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS ELEVATED CIGS RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE SW AS THE NW MX CLOSED LOW IS ABSORBED NE AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH FROM NRN NM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY.

INTERESTING SETUP TONIGHT THOUGH AS PVA BEGINS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
CNTRL AND E TX LATE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITHIN THESE ELEVATED
CIGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ACROSS E TX AFTER 06Z...WHEREAS A MIX OF -RA/IP WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...BUT BELIEVE THE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP SERVE AS A BLANKET AND KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SUCH
THAT ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ON ANY ELEVATED SURFACES. IN ADDITION...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THUS NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS THIS PVA SPREADS NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF -RA/IP WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER ALL BUT NE LA...WHICH WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THIS
PRECIP AS THE DEEPER VERTICAL PROFILE IS ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY ICE ACCUMULATION...AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE SUBFREEZING AREAS BY MIDMORNING. DID BEEF POPS UP
TO CHANCE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA WHERE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...BUT STILL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
ELEVATED CIGS FRIDAY...DID UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S.

THE ELONGATED TROUGH TO OUR NW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF TONIGHT OVER
ERN AZ/WRN NM BEFORE DRIFTING E INTO THE LOWER TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NE INTO
THE NATION/S MIDSECTION SATURDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH ENTERING
SE OK/E TX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TRAVERSING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT WHAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE /MAINLY ELEVATED/
THERE WILL BE...WITH WIDELY SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR AND SE OK
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKEST...COULD SEE A MIX
OF -RA/IP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BNDRY LYR COOLS TO NEAR
FREEZING...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THESE
AREAS. THE REMAINING PRECIP. SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK OWED TO THE INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION...WITH A MODERATING TREND COMMENCING ONCE DRIER AIR SPREADS E IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD GREET THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE TO OUR W AS THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BOWLING BALL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SW INTO
NRN MX MONDAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING E THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER S WITH
THESE RUNS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE TX COAST AND A VERY QUICK RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...COULD SEE AN ENHANCED SVR THREAT AT LEAST ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE EXPANSION INTO OUR REGION SHOULD THE WARM SECTOR BE ABLE TO SPREAD FARTHER N. DID RAISE POPS TO CHANCE AREAWIDE...WITH THE POTENTIAL SVR RISK BEING REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

[HockeyTx82]

Perhaps someone posted this, but is this system (for tonight and tomorrow) similar to the one that that came out of nowhere the Friday right before the Super Bowl? I remember them saying not much chance of snow, then we got quite a bit. I guess the difference is that there is no Arctic air mass in place right now, but the path and such seem to be the same. Yes, No? Or am I just making this up............