What will be the big ones for 2013

[Hurricaneman]

Andrea: May19 45mph tropical storm fish forming from an Extratropical low at 65W heading NE

Barry: June 15th becomes a tropical cyclone in the western Carribean and the next day makes landfall in Belize as a 45mph tropical storm

Chantal: July 2nd forms from a tropical wave at 60W but never really gains much organization and crashes into South America as a 40mph Tropical storm on July 3rd

Dorian: July 5th forms from a tropical wave at about where Chantal forms, but a trough picks it up and Landfalls in Puerto Rico as a 65mph Tropical Storm on July 8th and goes north and landfalls in Bermuda as a 85mph Cat 1 hurricane on July 10th

Erin: July 25th forms from a trough in the Eastern GOM and intensifies quickly moving west making landfall in Corpus Christi as a 100mph cat 2 hurricane on July 29th

Fernand: August 1 froms from an Extratropical low near the Azores and is a 65mph Tropical storm
heads NE making no landfall as a tropical system

GABRIELLE: August 5th forms near the Cape Verde islands and makes landfall in the Cape Verde Islands as a 60mph system, moves west maintaining its intensity making landfall in ST Kitts as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 10th moves WNW making landfall in the Bahamas as a 125mph Hurricane and Continues WNW into Palm Beach as a 140mph hurricane on August 13th when shear sets up and makes a second landfall in Destin as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 14th

Humberto: August 15th Forms from a tropical wave 100 miles south of the Cape Verde islands and never gains any organization due to shear and dies 400 miles E of the Windward islands 40mph Tropical Storm

INGRID: August 22nd forms from a trough near the Bahamas and rapidly intensifies heading north moving just east of Cape Hatteras as a 130mph Hurricane August 24th making landfall on Long Beach NY as a 120mph Hurricane August 25th

Jerry: August 25th forms in the eastern GOM but dies due to shear 45mph Tropical storm

Karen: August 29th forms from the same trough as Ingrid in the western GOM and makes landfall in Veracruz MX as a 45mph Tropical Storm August 29th

LORENZO: September 5th forms Near the Cape Verde Islands and rapidly develops to a 160 mph Hurrican at 45W on September 7th and turns north an becomes a fish storm but is the biggest storm of the year intensity wise

Melissa: September 19th forms from a tropical wave east of the Windward island and heads NW into Hispaniola as a 50mph tropical Storm September 21

Nestor: September 30th forms near 25N 50W and moves NE to make landfall in the Azores as a 50mph tropical storm October 3rd

Olga: October 10th forms from the monsoon trough near Panama, it heads north then NNE making Landfall in Cuba as a 75mph hurricane October 13th and heads out to sea

PABLO: October 17th forms from a monsoon trough Near Panama Heads north making landfall in Western Cuba as a 145mph hurricane October 23rd and gets sheared and makes landfall in Tampa as a 70mph Tropical Storm October 24th and dies over North Carolina

Rebekah: October 21st forms from the same monsoon trough as Pablo near Belieze and makes landfall in Belieze as a 50mph tropical storm October 22nd

Sebastien: November 2nd forms in the central atlantic from a extratropical system and intensifies to a 90mph hurricane November 4th and never makes landfall

Tanya: November 15th forms near Panama and move NE into Eastern Cuba as a 50mph tropical storm November 18th

Van: December 15th forms as a Extratropical system at 20N 50W and heads west than NW into Bermuda as a 50mph Tropical storm December 18th


Big ones in all capital letters

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

(just in case anyway, since I have my own thoughts for what 2013 might be like while I'm at it)

Andrea - could actually see an early minimal hurricane surprise out of her towards the end of June, likely in the central Gulf Coast
Barry - weak tropical storm with little threat to land
Chantal - possible rainmaker somewhere, likely not very strong, feeling Central America here
Dorian - I'm feeling a homegrown July hurricane in the Gulf, this name is all over in that ballpark, likely heads to Texas
Erin - likely a fish, but possibly a hurricane
Fernand - weak, short-lived fish tropical storm
Gabrielle - first major hurricane of the year, thinking a track like Earl and coming very close to the Caribbean and East Coast, but missing both
Humberto - usually I'm scared of this name but not quite as pronounced this time, likely some kind of Central America hit
Ingrid - YIKES!!! Possible troublemaker from the Caribbean (where it likely develops) to Texas, likely a very intense major hurricane, maybe even C5. I promise, not just because of the letter I either. This name has been giving me the creeps lately!
Jerry - another weak to moderate out-to-sea tropical storm
Karen - a little stronger than Jerry, maybe even a hurricane, but similar track
Lorenzo - Another nasty! Think a track like Dennis in 1999 forming in the Bahamas, but slightly stronger and actually heads straight into North Carolina rather than stalling first. Thinking C2 or C3 at landfall
Melissa - don't feel this name much, likely an out-to-sea storm but maybe becoming a minimal hurricane
Nestor - I've occasionally had vibes off this name, but never overly so. Mexico as a minimal or moderate hurricane most likely after forming in the Caribbean. Gets heavily talked about for possible retirement but like several other recent somewhat destructive hurricanes like Alex, doesn't get the axe
Olga - most likely candidate for October monster, follows a classic but slow path from the western Caribbean, through the Yucatan Channel, and into Florida as a C3 storm not far from Tampa at all, then emerges over the open Atlantic and heads out to sea but not without first threatening Bermuda
Pablo - late out-to-sea hurricane of subtropical origin
Rebekah - minimal November hurricane that forms over the western Caribbean, heads into Cuba and then weakens rapidly

So in short, my big name candidates are Ingrid, Lorenzo, and Olga, with heavy emphasis on Ingrid. I am also thinking this will be a year that the Cape Verde storms tend to re-curve and/or stay weak, though Gabrielle will come close to hitting land and be stronger. The majority of storms to threaten and/or hit land will be homegrown, I think. Andrea and Dorian are my most likely early season surprises. Although Olga is my most likely October storm, Nestor is right there as a strong possibility too.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

I think there will be a lot of people saying Ingrid will be the big one this year. Look for sometime in August for that I would think. Of all the I names, it has the weakest record - a total dud in 2007.

I have a feeling one of the two big streaks will end - 7 years without a major hurricane hit in the US, and 7 years without a Florida hurricane hit of any kind. I'm thinking the Florida streak will end, and maybe both streaks at once.

[Extratropical94]

I believe the 19 storms per season streak will end. We simply can't have four straight 19er seasons for some reason.
And I also think that Ingrid will be a dud, I've got a bad feeling about Melissa, Nestor and Pablo though.
By the way, I don't see any big storms before Fernand, because we're probably gonna get another round of pre-season subtropical systems, a.k.a. wasted names.

[CrazyC83]

I believe the 19 storms per season streak will end. We simply can't have four straight 19er seasons for some reason.
And I also think that Ingrid will be a dud, I've got a bad feeling about Melissa, Nestor and Pablo though.
By the way, I don't see any big storms before Fernand, because we're probably gonna get another round of pre-season subtropical systems, a.k.a. wasted names.

True, but a big storm in June can and still happen - even if it is rare. A fourth straight 19-storm season would be quite something. I am sure quite a few will pick that number in the poll.

If the old seasons had current storm detection capability, I would think the average season would be around 15 storms or so.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my most recent guess for the 2013 season - notice 19 storms again, and a few weird ones - especially Karen that intensifies to a major south of the Azores and eventually hits Spain as a tropical storm, and Rebekah that hits near Savannah, GA as a Cat 2, remains a vigorous extratropical storm across the east coast states, emerges in the Gulf Stream, dips south and regains subtropical characteristics...Ingrid is another extremely destructive storm.



TS Andrea (June 20 - 22): Peak, 50 kt/999mb; Landfall FL, 40 kt/1000mb

TS Barry (July 4 - 7): Peak, 60 kt/994mb

H Chantal (July 23 - 29): Peak, 75 kt/981mb

TS Dorian (August 2 - 3): Peak, 40 kt/1002mb

TS Erin (August 14 - 18): Peak, 55 kt/994mb

H Fernand (August 23 - 27): Peak, 65 kt/988mb; Landfall NC, 55 kt/995mb; Landfall MA, 50 kt/993mb

MH Gabrielle (August 29 - September 16): Peak, 120 kt/942mb; Landfall Dominica, 110 kt/947mb; Landfall PR, 100 kt/954mb; Landfall Dom. Rep., 90 kt/962mb; Landfall Azores, 80 kt/950mb

H Humberto (August 30 - September 4): Peak, 85 kt/976mb; Landfall Yucatan, 85 kt/976mb

MH Ingrid (September 7 - 21): Peak, 150 kt/916mb; Landfall Grenada, 110 kt/964mb; Landfall Jamaica, 150 kt/916mb; Landfall Cuba, 120 kt/938mb; Landfall FL, 90 kt/949mb; Landfall NC, 80 kt/962mb; Landfall NY, 65 kt/968mb

TS Jerry (September 9 - 11): Peak, 60 kt/983mb

MH Karen (September 15 - 22): Peak, 105 kt/959mb; Landfall Spain, 50 kt/991mb

TS Lorenzo (September 16 - 19): Peak, 50 kt/997mb

H Melissa (September 25 - October 2): Peak, 95 kt/952mb; Landfall St. Kitts, 95 kt/969mb; Landfall BVI, 75 kt/978mb; Landfall Nova Scotia, 80 kt/952mb

TS Nestor (September 26 - 27): Peak 35 kt/1004mb

TS Olga (September 30 - October 4): Peak 55 kt/990mb

H Pablo (October 10 - 14): Peak 75 kt/983mb; Landfall LA, 70 kt/986mb

MH Rebekah (October 14 - 27): Peak 100 kt/932mb; Landfall St. Lucia, 80 kt/981mb; Landfall Haiti, 100 kt/941mb; Landfall Bahamas, 100 kt/932mb; Landfall GA, 85 kt/937mb

H Sebastian (October 28 - November 6): Peak 85 kt/977mb

TS Tanya (November 22 - 24): Peak 55 kt/995mb; Landfall Dom. Rep., 50 kt/997mb

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83, by looking at your projection I see that you think the MDR will be very active and that means the midlevel inestability will not be as dry as in past seasons. As always, time will tell how active the MDR will be.

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, by looking at your projection I see that you think the MDR will be very active and that means the midlevel inestability will not be as dry as in past seasons. As always, time will tell how active the MDR will be.

Not as active as 2010 or some other big CV years but reasonably active. Gabrielle is the only one that gets going before the Caribbean, perhaps a sign of a narrow window of activity (like with Bill in 2009). Ingrid struggles for a long time (partially cold wake, partially dry air brought back) but bombs out in the Caribbean eventually slashing Jamaica.

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Some early, serious thoughts of mine:

*I think the +TNA set-up with a very warm East Atlantic and likely neutral-cool ENSO will mean a very active MDR--much more so than in 2009, 2011, and 2012. I could easily see six tropical cyclones developing in the MDR this year, just as they did in 2010. However, unlike in 2010 and the rest of the past four seasons, I think the tracks will go farther west and could pose some threats to New England and Canada.
*I believe that the -NAO this winter will come up in the heart of the hurricane season. The past several seasons since 2009 have mostly seen a raging +NAO during peak season, shunting the Bermuda-Azores High to the Eastern Atlantic and leaving a trough over the East Coast. In that pattern, we saw many recurvatures. This time, a -NAO will mean a weaker ridge, BUT that ridge will be much farther west than in 2009-2012, meaning more close calls for the U.S. this year.
*I expect the Gulf to be very warm this year and to be in a unique position between the Bermuda High and a ridge over the drought-plagued Southwest. Over the past several seasons, a large heat ridge over the dry Central U.S. has kept an East Coast trough in place and has also shunted many potential Gulf systems south into Central America. This time, with a more westerly Bermuda High, the Central U.S. ridge will be located farther Southwest, near the Four Corners region of UT, NV, AZ, and NM. This means more storms will have a chance to move NW into the Gulf--that is, into the trough between the Bermuda and Southwest ridges, which will no longer be over the East Coast, but rather over the western Great Lakes.
*This means MUCH more Gulf (home-grown) activity than what we have been seeing since 2009.
*The major-free hurricane streak will very likely come to an end--and with a vengeance, I suspect. I also think that we have a good chance to see the first Category-5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix 2007.
*We will finally have a late season that brings something to the U.S. Neutral-cool ENSO combined with a westerly Bermuda High will allow some October, W-Caribbean development to move north into the U.S. this year.
*The major areas of development this year will be the Gulf/West Caribbean Sea and the MDR, with no early subtropical development as in many recent years. This year, the tropics rather than the subtropics will be the focus of development and strong storms. With few or no exceptions, all development will occur in the Gulf/W Caribbean or the MDR.
*We will NOT reach 19 named storms this year. In this year, quality rather than quantity will be the watchword. I suggest 15-16 named storms, but with a VERY high percentage of hurricanes and major hurricanes. My guess would be 16/11/5, with perhaps multiple Category-4 storms and one Category-5 hurricane.

Now, it is time to lick my finger and take a little, unofficial spit in the wind. I used my general outline above, plus climatology, as a guide to sketch, for pure imagination, a possible way in which 2013 may evolve.

Bold = Significant impact--rain, wind, population, etc.
Bold red = Highly significant--will be remembered for a decade or more

ANDREA: 03-07 JUN; tropical storm / 50 mph
Part of an active early ITCZ. Forms in the East Atlantic, moves generally northwest, peaks at 45 knots, and then dies. Earliest CV cyclone ever recorded, formed due to strong anticyclone and above-average SST in the MDR. Did not become very strong due to early date of formation. Briefly shows eye-like feature at mid-levels, but surface and mid-level circulations fail to become stacked.

BARRY: 07-14 JUN; tropical storm / 45 mph
Also forms in the East Atlantic, becomes earliest second CV system on record. Moves generally west, but struggles due to early date on the calendar, meaning fairly strong shear across the deep tropics. Peaks at 40 knots, is less organized than Andrea was. Generates sensational discussion about a record-breaking, 2005-like season, mostly turning out to be unfounded in terms of total numbers.

CHANTAL: 20-31 JUL; Category 1 hurricane / 75 mph
Develops in a favorable upper-air environment just north of Puerto Rico, then moves northwest before turning north and finally north-northeast. Does not intensify until it reaches unusually warm waters off New England, when it suddenly peaks at 65 knots. Strikes western Nova Scotia as a minimal hurricane, causing unusually intense damage due to early arrival, meaning little preparation by the local populace.

DORIAN: 29 JUL-07 AUG; Category 1 hurricane / 75 mph
Develops from an upper-level low near east FL. Forms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, does not strengthen for days due to strong shear. Afterward, shear relaxes, system rapidly strengthens to 65 knots before striking High Island, TX, as a small cyclone. Much like Debra 1959, which also rapidly deepened and hit this area. Comparisons to Humberto 2007 also abound. Dorian causes significant wind damage and heavy rainfall, mainly near the eye, due to its slow movement.

ERIN: 12-26 AUG; Category 3 hurricane / 115 mph
A relatively early CV hurricane, becomes the first major cyclone of the season. Quickly develops and strengthens while southeast of the Cape Verde islands, taking a parabolic path to the northwest as it hits the southwestern CV islands (55 knots / 65 mph). Henceforth, heads northwest before turning west-northwest, thereafter rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane, its first peak at 100 knots. Weakens for some days and curves north-northwest, briefly reacquiring major intensity (100 knots) while beginning a turn back to the west-northwest. Eventually recurves to the northeast without affecting additional land masses. At its peaks, shows an impressive CDO much like that of Michael 2012.

FERNAND: 17-31 AUG; Category 2 hurricane / 100 mph
Develops in the wake of Erin, part of an MJO-induced upswing in MDR-centered tropical development. Forms near where Erin germinated, southeast of the Cape Verde islands, and then moves north of due west, remaining well to the south of the islands. Near 33°W, it rapidly deepens into a small-sized hurricane, briefly peaking at 85 knots (Category-2 intensity), but then weakens just as rapidly as it strengthened—mainly due to northeasterly shear from Erin. Thereafter, remains close to the anticyclone of Erin over the remainder of its life, never managing to regain hurricane intensity as it moves mainly west-northwest. Finally curves northeast and out to sea. Shows the effects of shear on a small cyclone.

GABRIELLE: 22-30 AUG; Category 1 hurricane / 75 mph
Develops from a surface trough just south-southeast of Cozumel, then drifts north-northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a depression. Near 25°N, becomes a weak tropical storm and stalls for almost 24 hours, only to move east-northeast toward the Tampa Bay region. Suddenly, stalls again, then does an Elena (1985)-type northwest turn as a trough passes to the north, leaving a ridge in its wake. Strengthens into a hurricane near Cape San Blas and makes landfall on Pensacola, FL, at peak intensity (65 knots / 75 mph). Causes much flooding damage over Alabama; is destructive due to its wind-related impacts in Pensacola.

HUMBERTO: 23 AUG-06 SEP; Category 4 hurricane / 150 mph
Becomes the first big major hurricane of the season. A classic CV-type system, develops about 430 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands and moves west-northwest for several days. Near 42°W, rapidly deepens into a hurricane and reaches Category-4 intensity just 24 hours later, shortly thereafter peaking at 130 knots. Maintains Category-4 intensity for about two and a half days before turning north-northwest and quickly weakening. Next, slowly begins to turn northwest over the three succeeding days, maintaining Category-2 intensity for a very long period of time. Once east of Bermuda, suddenly turns to the west-northwest while under the influence of the West Atlantic ridge. Finally meets a short-wave trough and curves northeast, hitting far eastern Nova Scotia as a hurricane (65 knots / 75 mph). Worst effects remain east of center due to fast northeast movement. For a time, Humberto generates speculation about a threat to New England but swerves away from the U.S.

INGRID: 30 AUG-05 SEP; Category 4 hurricane / 145 mph
This is the first hurricane to break the seven-year-long, major-hurricane-free reprieve in the U.S. from 2005-2012. Forms just north of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche, and drifts north over the Bay of Campeche. Becomes a tropical storm northwest of Mérida and then gradually curves northwest. Deepens into a hurricane near 24°N and thereafter steadily deepens into a Category-4 hurricane in less than two days. Peaks at 125 knots while just 180 miles east of Padre Island, TX. Henceforth, suddenly turns to the west-northwest and makes landfall in TX near 28.5°N 96.4°W—about 20 miles southwest of Port Lavaca—with winds of 120 knots / 140 mph. Does not weaken substantially before landfall like recent Gulf majors circa 2001-2005. Major wind damage between Port Lavaca and Matagorda, with Port Lavaca in or near the northeast eye-wall. System is relatively small in size compared to most recent Gulf majors. Storm surge is not widely spread but is locally over 16 feet in Lavaca Bay. Will be remembered as one of the most intense hurricanes to strike TX and the strongest landfall there since Carla 1961. Like Bret 1999, but without the final collapse before landfall. Strikes a much more densely-populated area than Bret did. Radar presentation at landfall will be remembered for its closed eye-wall and impressive structural organization compared to those of many recent Gulf landfalls.

JERRY: 06-15 SEP; Category 2 hurricane / 105 mph
Develops about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moves generally northwest, slowly strengthening for several days. Briefly turns west-northwest and becomes a minimal hurricane while centered about 430 miles north-northeast of Anguilla. Thereafter, curves back to the northwest and continues organizing, becoming a Category-2 hurricane and peaking at 90 knots while located about 250 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC. Seemingly threatening New England, Jerry then swerves to the northeast, slowly weakens, and instead strikes Newfoundland as an extratropical cyclone with gale-force winds.

KAREN: 11-15 SEP; tropical storm / 60 mph
Forms about 180 miles west of Bissau, Guinea, and moves northwest. Becomes a tropical storm and peaks at 50 knots while located 180 miles east of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. Passes east of the islands and slowly weakens. Dissipates well to the northwest of the islands. Notably, track passes east and north of the Cape Verde islands.

LORENZO: 16-25 SEP; Category 4 hurricane / 155 mph
Becomes the second major hurricane to hit the U.S. in 2013, also striking the Gulf region as Ingrid did. Develops about 300 miles east of Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua, and moves northwest as a depression. Thereafter, becomes a tropical storm and briefly moves north before turning north-northwest. In that time, rapidly deepens into a hurricane while on a wobbly path. Deepens particularly rapidly in the last 24 hours before hitting Pinar del Río Province, Cuba, peaking at 130 knots / 150 mph and then making landfall at this extreme intensity. Weakens slightly as it crosses flat western Cuba, but quickly regains Category-4 intensity over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Continuing more to the northwest, attains a second peak intensity of 135 knots / 155 mph near 25.0°N 85.5°W. Afterward, mostly maintains its intensity for another 24 hours before weakening and hitting near Pascagoula, MS, with winds of 110 knots / 125 mph, strong Category-3 intensity. Remains a relatively small system throughout its life and causes major wind damage in MS and in nearby Alabama, mainly southwest of Mobile. Retains a well-defined inner core even at U.S. landfall, much like Frederic 1979 or Dennis 2005. Produces extremely high, verifiable wind gusts up to 131 knots / 151 mph in the eye-wall, unlike in most recent U.S. landfalls.

MELISSA: 25 SEP-03 OCT; Category 2 hurricane / 110 mph
Develops about 150 miles west-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and moves northwest for a few hours. Becomes a tropical storm as it turns west into the southern Turks and Caicos Islands, then stalls and curves to the north-northwest for several days. Becomes a hurricane while situated about 180 miles east of Nassau, The Bahamas, and shortly thereafter peaks at 95 knots while located about 250 miles east of Charleston, SC. Afterward, negatively-tilted trough picks up Melissa but does not fully phase with the cyclone, so Melissa instead makes landfall near 41.3°N 71.2°W as a tropical storm (55 knots / 65 mph). Exhibits hybrid-type characteristics before and during landfall, but completes full extratropical transition shortly after landfall. Causes significant tides near Plymouth, Boston, and inner Cape Cod, with significant rainfall and flooding west of the center in CT, NY, and VT.

NÉSTOR: 09-23 OCT; Category 5 hurricane / 175 mph
The strongest hurricane of the season and a classic October cyclone; becomes the first Category-5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Felix 2007. Becomes a very large cyclone as it approaches Northwest Florida. Develops in a monsoonal trough about 200 miles north of Panama City, Panama, and then becomes a tropical storm as it drifts slowly to the northeast. Suddenly slows dramatically about 60 miles south of Jamaica, then turns to the west-northwest and rapidly deepens. Becomes a Category-5 hurricane about one and a half day later, quickly peaking at 150 knots while turning to the north-northwest. Only slowly weakens and afterward makes landfall about 25 miles south of Havana, Cuba, with winds of 130 knots / 150 mph—becoming a second Category-4 landfall in Cuba in a single season, tying the 2008 record. Briefly weakens to 110 knots / 125 mph over land, but then re-intensifies to 115 knots / 135 mph as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Soon encounters cooler shelf waters and land interaction with the Florida peninsula, weakening as it moves north-northwest. Becomes very large after leaving Cuba and even larger due to increasing shear near the Tampa area. Finally makes landfall near 29.4°N 83.4°W—about 10 miles northwest of Horseshoe Beach, FL—with winds of 85 knots / 100 mph. However, the RMW is very large, about 35 miles, at that point, causing a large storm surge of up to 20 feet, locally even higher, at and just east of Cedar Key. Large surges of up to 10 feet occur along portions of the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay to near Horseshoe Beach. The storm becomes the worst hit along the Nature Coast (Big Bend) of Florida since the October 1846 hurricane and is the worst hurricane ever to hit the Cedar Key area. Causes much flooding over the Carolinas, Virginia, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region as it curves to the northeast as a weakening tropical storm. Will be remembered as the great storm of 2013 for its striking an area that had not seen a hurricane since Gladys 1968. Destruction in this area, between Tampa and Horseshoe Beach and especially at Cedar Key, will combine with the Cuban and inland U.S. impacts to make this hurricane historic on a Sandy-type level or higher. Will rank among such storms as Sandy, Ike (in TX), Gustav, Isaac, etc. in that large, non-major hurricanes and tropical storms cause major damage.

OLGA: 30 OCT-04 NOV; tropical storm / 65 mph (tropical stage)
Forms just off the north coast of Haiti, quickly curves north and north-northeast, peaking at 55 knots about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC. Thereafter, becomes extratropical and through QG forcing actually strengthens to 70 knots / 80 mph before hitting near 45.0°N 66.0°W at that intensity. Most damaging of the cyclones to hit Canada this year, whether extratropical or tropical at landfall. Causes massive rural power outages as well as downed trees well to the east of the center. Is very large in size, making landfall so much more damaging. Will be known as the "cold-core hurricane".

PABLO: 15-18 NOV; tropical storm / 40 mph
Fortunately, a short-lived, weak tropical storm that causes minimal rainfall and wind. Peaks at 35 knots, moves west, and hits Honduras.

2013 Track Map

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I do agree with you on many things, but you're incorrect on the NAO. Not that we could tell by the pattern, the NAO has been deeply negative for the past three years during the peak of hurricane season.

However...an abundance of troughing has been located across the Northeast USA and southeastern Canada, which forced most storms out to sea. Since October, this region has been replaced with ridging, and we see what happened with Sandy.

[gigabite]

I look at this resource for track and intensity:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.php

With 2011 an an analog year I am thinking that 19 storms would be about it. The number of sub points in the basin is a factor as is the amount of moisture at the time of rotation.



Hurricane IRENE (21-30 AUG) would be the analog bad storm
Storm - Max Winds: 105 Min Pres: 942 Category: 3

A modifying detail to this is as the Moons Latitude reaches it maximum or minimum the frequency of major hurricanes drops substantially, and the sub point in 2013 is N 17.938 versus the 1997 sub point of N 18.12. 1997 was the year of The Great El Nino.




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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

very active imaginations!

[Ptarmigan]

I notice many have Ingrid as a big one for 2013.

[Andrew92]

Here are the tracks of the five US landfalling hurricanes I have per my other post. Also include hypothetical "best tracks" for each.

Andrea: http://imageshack.us/f/221/andrear.png/
Dorian: http://imageshack.us/f/543/doriand.png/
Ingrid: http://imageshack.us/f/35/ingridw.png/
Lorenzo: http://imageshack.us/f/21/lorenzor.png/
Olga: http://imageshack.us/f/17/olgamd.png/

-Andrew92

[gigabite]

I see this thread as a collage of training sets. The catastrophe theory, a theory of mathematical structure in which smooth continuous inputs lead to discontinuous responses provides a basis for a dichotomy of emotion embracing the evolution of weather modeling. That is to say that a portion of the population fervently believes that there will never be a solid formula that says a paper boat entering a turbulent flow here will end up there. Then there is that portion of the population that intuitively knows that normative science is a compilation semi proven possibilities that can be improved upon by postulating a variable here, and there, then observing outcomes.

I noticed a substantial improvement between the storm modeling in Sandy 2012 compared to Irene 2011. Cracking the entire weather matrix is just a matter of time.

[TheStormExpert]

GABRIELLE: August 5th forms near the Cape Verde islands and makes landfall in the Cape Verde Islands as a 60mph system, moves west maintaining its intensity making landfall in ST Kitts as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 10th moves WNW making landfall in the Bahamas as a 125mph Hurricane and Continues WNW into Palm Beach as a 140mph hurricane on August 13th when shear sets up and makes a second landfall in Destin as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 14th

Not really liking Gabrielle at all but I would take it if it actually came true. I feel like Palm Beach County can withstand major hurricanes better than any other place. Storm Surge is really never an issue her at all as experienced in Frances, Jeanne, & Wilma, so bring it on!

[Bocadude85]

GABRIELLE: August 5th forms near the Cape Verde islands and makes landfall in the Cape Verde Islands as a 60mph system, moves west maintaining its intensity making landfall in ST Kitts as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 10th moves WNW making landfall in the Bahamas as a 125mph Hurricane and Continues WNW into Palm Beach as a 140mph hurricane on August 13th when shear sets up and makes a second landfall in Destin as a 70mph Tropical Storm on August 14th

Not really liking Gabrielle at all but I would take it if it actually came true. I feel like Palm Beach County can withstand major hurricanes better than any other place. Storm Surge is really never an issue her at all as experienced in Frances, Jeanne, & Wilma, so bring it on!

While storm surge isnt as big of a issue in Palm Beach County as it is in other areas, major hurricanes can still cause a significant storm surge here. Hurricane Frances and Jeanne made landfall north of Palm Beach County which placed the highest surge on the treasure coast. And Hurricane Wilma made landfall on the west coast of Florida which resulted in minimal surge on the east coast of Florida. Hurricane Andrew produced a 17ft storm surge in South Miami. In 1947 a cat 4 hurricane made landfall in Southern Palm Beach County and produced a 10ft storm surge. A 10ft storm surge would inudate most barrier islands along the coast of Palm Beach County.

[wxman57]

My initial thinking is a below-normal season in 2013. Maybe 10-11 storms. Hard to say as so many weak, short-lived systems are named these days. I don't like "I" storms - they're usually bad (Ike, Isidore, Ivan, Isabel, Irene, Inez, Igor, Ione). Ingrid sounds bad to me.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My initial thinking is a below-normal season in 2013. Maybe 10-11 storms. Hard to say as so many weak, short-lived systems are named these days. I don't like "I" storms - they're usually bad (Ike, Isidore, Ivan, Isabel, Irene, Inez, Igor, Ione). Ingrid sounds bad to me.

Really? You're the first person out of a countless number of meteorologists that I've talked to [to] say that. I'm a bit interested on why you think it will be so inactive?

[AnnularCane]

Omega. j/k

I've been sort of trying to resist picking on the I storm just because it's the I storm, but Ingrid is standing out a bit for me. Also Gabrielle and Karen. This might be the year of the girl storms.