Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

It's not going to be one big front that blasts through. Warm up this weekend will allow return flow and a storm will come middle of next week. That storm will replenish the lost snow cover between now and then in the central plains. Another one will will arrive by next weekend-ish and this will will usher yet another front laying more snow further south and these are the systems that should provide some excitement before arrival of big high pressure.

Right now the models do not show historic cold of any kind, very cold yes. However there is the remote possibility the SSW will pop the -EPO ridge sending even higher heights to Alaska, if that happens then we can talk historic. Still a remote chance

While I am all in favor of some decent cold. Just remember two years ago when both of the "reliable" models showed a 1050+ high building down the plains in the 6-7 day outlook and it just did not happen. Even some of the more conservative mets were acknowledging an arctic pluge. Perhaps this time will be different.

It depends on where you are. Some get it some don't. The East coast this time is at risk from the SE ridge that will block any strong cold air intrusion

The back end of these kind of setups usually produce the historic cold temps but the temps starting next weekend, relative to averages, should be some of the coldest we've seen in a couple of years. The potential is there for DFW to see a single digit low temp over the next few weeks, something we haven't seen since 1996.

[Ntxw]

The back end of these kind of setups usually produce the historic cold temps but the temps starting next weekend, relative to averages, should be some of the coldest we've seen in a couple of years. The potential is there for DFW to see a single digit low temp over the next few weeks, something we haven't seen since 1996.

I completely agree. Raw temps will be there, what I'm waiting to look for is if the EPO will deliver the 100-200+ hours of deep freeze. The pipe busting cold. Several days of sub freezing and low teens right now are becoming more probable.

[orangeblood]

Another note to give you an idea of the kind of cold that this pattern could tap into and lock in over North America....the snow cover for last month in the Northern Hemisphere just set the December all time record. The record it just broke was back in.......................December of 1984!! Preceding the historic outbreak of January of 1985

[dhweather]

The back end of these kind of setups usually produce the historic cold temps but the temps starting next weekend, relative to averages, should be some of the coldest we've seen in a couple of years. The potential is there for DFW to see a single digit low temp over the next few weeks, something we haven't seen since 1996.

I completely agree. Raw temps will be there, what I'm waiting to look for is if the EPO will deliver the 100-200+ hours of deep freeze. The pipe busting cold. Several days of sub freezing and low teens right now are becoming more probable.

Channeling my inner wxman57, if it's gonna be that cold, there BETTER be snow.

I'm still not sold on it being THAT bad just yet, but the signals certainly favor a significant cold event. Will it be epic? Stay tuned.

[BigB0882]

Great pic Ivan H. How much did you get? Cant remember but did yall ever get snows like that back home? Also in regards to the discussion yesterday about the long range possible artic intrusion here is a piece from our local nws discussion this morning.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WORTH MENTIONING...THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO A DEEP FREEZE WITH WINTRY WEATHER IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

Very interesting to hear for our local forecasts. I assume you are still in Gonzales. I didn't think next weekend was an issue, I thought it would be 2 weeks away, at least.

[JonathanBelles]

I've officially missed the snow by less than 12 hours in Austin. Austin has recorded a trace of snow according to the NWS.

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: That is one heck of a cold ensemble run. This strat warm is like 1985. Inaug day that year... Super Bowl Sunday. 3 at DC.. at noon."

[Portastorm]

I've officially missed the snow by less than 12 hours in Austin. Austin has recorded a trace of snow according to the NWS.

Nah, you didn't miss any snow. That "trace" amount recorded was actually sleet and it was mixed with rain. We didn't have any snow in the Austin city limits. What snow fell occurred out to our west in the Hill Country.

However, we'll try to cook up a severe weather episode for you early next week!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I've officially missed the snow by less than 12 hours in Austin. Austin has recorded a trace of snow according to the NWS.

Nah, you didn't miss any snow. That "trace" amount recorded was actually sleet and it was mixed with rain. We didn't have any snow in the Austin city limits. What snow fell occurred out to our west in the Hill Country.

However, we'll try to cook up a severe weather episode for you early next week!

Quit it! Do NOT hope, dream, or pray for cold.........because if we get the FULL MONTY of Old Man Winter I WILL be sending him down and he is NOT a pretty sight. He is OLD, MEAN and UGLY and he will be your worst nightmare!!!

Please DO NOT tempt him!

[Portastorm]

My Canadian friend, you misunderstand. When I wrote "severe weather," I meant like thunderstorms and tornadoes, and flooding rains ... not Arctic cold or snow or sleet. Next Tuesday we believe that a severe weather episode may impact the Austin area and other parts of Texas as a strong storm system rolls through the state.

I would never tempt Old Man Winter. Well, only on days that end in "y."

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

reminds me of a segment from Fright Night when the Vampire reached out, crushed the cross and called the boy a fool.

The vampire in that show was based on Old Man Winter.

You folks just haven't had a recent enough meeting with him to know just what he can do.



and you have invited him in............................

[BigB0882]

It hasn't been a successful winter until I have to put on my heavy coat that I take with me to NYC in the winter and have to wear a scarf and long johns. THAT is when I know it is cold in the South and I know I didn't touch those clothes last year.

[dhweather]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: That is one heck of a cold ensemble run. This strat warm is like 1985. Inaug day that year... Super Bowl Sunday. 3 at DC.. at noon."

He's now also tweeted:

"Dont think it will be as cold as 85, but temps in 20s,snow on the ground in DC would be fitting.Would make sure the POTUS is ready for cold "

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Here I'll give you the secret and you can make them year round.....

Build a cold chamber [a 1-by-3-foot box], and cool the bottom to negative 40 degrees Fahrenheit, and heat the top to 104. Then introduce water vapor at the top, and it will diffuse down; some droplets will freeze and start to grow. Eventually, snowflakes will fall.

Now you have no need to call on him at all.

[HouTXmetro]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: That is one heck of a cold ensemble run. This strat warm is like 1985. Inaug day that year... Super Bowl Sunday. 3 at DC.. at noon."

He's now also tweeted:

"Dont think it will be as cold as 85, but temps in 20s,snow on the ground in DC would be fitting.Would make sure the POTUS is ready for cold "

Lord NO, I was there in Jan 09 inauguration and it was 3 degrees Fri night preceding the Inauguration. Felt like a dry freezer. The temp warmed up to the upper 20's low 30's by inauguration. The cold was brutal! But I managed to keep warm with all the partying I did.

[orangeblood]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: That is one heck of a cold ensemble run. This strat warm is like 1985. Inaug day that year... Super Bowl Sunday. 3 at DC.. at noon."

He's now also tweeted:

"Dont think it will be as cold as 85, but temps in 20s,snow on the ground in DC would be fitting.Would make sure the POTUS is ready for cold "

After getting burned over the past few years, JB has become much more conservative when forecasting cold. IMO, this looks like a time when he should be much more aggressive with his forecast

[somethingfunny]

From Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: That is one heck of a cold ensemble run. This strat warm is like 1985. Inaug day that year... Super Bowl Sunday. 3 at DC.. at noon."

He's now also tweeted:

"Dont think it will be as cold as 85, but temps in 20s,snow on the ground in DC would be fitting.Would make sure the POTUS is ready for cold "

After getting burned over the past few years, JB has become much more conservative when forecasting cold. IMO, this looks like a time when he should be much more aggressive with his forecast

He really only talks about the East Coast.

[Kludge]

The back end of these kind of setups usually produce the historic cold temps but the temps starting next weekend, relative to averages, should be some of the coldest we've seen in a couple of years. The potential is there for DFW to see a single digit low temp over the next few weeks, something we haven't seen since 1996.

I completely agree. Raw temps will be there, what I'm waiting to look for is if the EPO will deliver the 100-200+ hours of deep freeze. The pipe busting cold. Several days of sub freezing and low teens right now are becoming more probable.

One thing to watch to see if the "experts" are really buying into this is to follow the money. The futures markets listen to their hired-gun forecasters, and invest accordingly. Natural gas futures have been dropping steadily over the past weeks and months. If this starts to look like the real deal, watch them spike.

[HockeyTx82]

He really only talks about the East Coast.

Yup, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Coast_Bias

Pertains to sports mainly. Anyone have a Wikipedia account they want to make an edit with?

[Ntxw]

While what the models show is a very cold look, I'm seeing subtle signs that beyond the foreseeable period (back end orangeblood mentioned) the "pop" omega block may happen over Alaska due to the appearance of an emerging Aleutian low. While the 10th-15th certainly has the Arctic poised to drop look that cold isn't yet the extreme we're looking for, rather just the models trending colder and colder each run in the period before (remember this was supposed to be the warm up that's not likely to happen).

When we see the 1050s (my guess we might see some 1060s+) on the models that's when we'll know