Texas Winter 2012-2013

[NDG]

Along with the X-Factor in this setup - the Major SSW occurring now, It's hard to ignore the similarities to 1985 though....just look at the 500 mb Northern Hemisphere pattern for January of 1985 to the GFS ensemble long range forecast in the 10-15 day range

I'm not certain on this but most of the major blasts probably happened the same way regarding SSW.

The thing about 1985 and what the models are forecasting has subtle differences which makes a big difference. 1985 was very +PNA/extreme -NAO induced. Noticed the insane anomalies over Greenland. This essentially glides the high pressure southeast and Texas got glancing blows. Core of the cold was over the Lakes and northeast/mid-atlantic.

The second anomaly map is -EPO dominated with the -PNA which will slide the high down the west and central conus much like the other -EPO dominated periods of 83 and 89. This is if forecasting holds. I haven't yet seen the 564+ dm's over Greenland to point towards 1985

I like to use this site for analog patterns

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

I agree with you Ntxw, one thing that I have not seen not even the GFS operational show in its forecast is the polar vortex come across the border southward into the Great Lakes like it did in 1985. For that to happen, like you said, we need to see a heck of a -NAO and +PNA, contrary to what the models are showing, for it to be epic like '85.

[NDG]

Along with the X-Factor in this setup - the Major SSW occurring now, It's hard to ignore the similarities to 1985 though....just look at the 500 mb Northern Hemisphere pattern for January of 1985 to the GFS ensemble long range forecast in the 10-15 day range

I'm not certain on this but most of the major blasts probably happened the same way regarding SSW.

The thing about 1985 and what the models are forecasting has subtle differences which makes a big difference. 1985 was very +PNA/extreme -NAO induced. Noticed the insane anomalies over Greenland. This essentially glides the high pressure southeast and Texas got glancing blows. Core of the cold was over the Lakes and northeast/mid-atlantic.

The second anomaly map is -EPO dominated with the -PNA which will slide the high down the west and central conus much like the other -EPO dominated periods of 83 and 89. This is if forecasting holds. I haven't yet seen the 564+ dm's over Greenland to point towards 1985

I like to use this site for analog patterns

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

I see your point and that slight difference in the ridge Axis over Alaska appears to make an even better setup for extreme cold for the southern plains. But if you look at the PNA/NAO values from January 1985, they are in the range of what the models are forecasting for the time period coming up...PNA to stay positive with the NAO tanking! What really stands out is the extreme AO values of early 1985 and not sure if it will get that low. Exciting pattern to say the least!!!

GFS ensembles have been persistent in the PNA getting down to near neutral, not to stay or as positive as right now.

[Ntxw]

Hey how about we take the best of both worlds for everybody? 0z GFS goes crazy with the -EPO then in la la land shows the 564dm over greenland lol

Seriously, either way we should prepare for a cold blast coming after the 10th. Could have some severe weather in Texas next week and another outbreak for the Miss valley with the system after that.

[orangeblood]

How about this....January 1985 in DFW tied for the 7th coldest January on record with an average of 37.8 deg F. Who believes this pattern set up should top that mark ???

[NDG]

[Ntxw]

Leave it to the Crazy Canadian! Now that is extreme cold. 1062mb

[BigB0882]

When we see the 1050s (my guess we might see some 1060s+) on the models that's when we'll know

Well you were right, the first 1060 high of the bunch. Let's see if any of the other (more reliable, IMO) models come on board with anything close.

[DougNTexas]

I just want some snow out of it.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Please put me out of my misery and tell me what those maps are saying the temperature will be over my location.

[HouTXmetro]

I wish I knew how to read those maps.... does the colors indicate how cold certain areas will be or is that something else?

[Ntxw]

Please put me out of my misery and tell me what those maps are saying the temperature will be over my location.

Those -50F's you saw over Alaska last month from a distance, well they won't be so distant. And you will probably see them much longer than they did.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Please put me out of my misery and tell me what those maps are saying the temperature will be over my location.

Those -50F's you saw over Alaska last month from a distance, well they won't be so distant. And you will probably see them much longer than they did.

Now it will be a race between me and Nick to see who gets to Jamaica first.

[Ntxw]

Hm, no mention of the longer range GFS? Fantasy sure, but 6+ inches of snow and 1F for a low in Dallas isn't your typical GFS run lol

[LaBreeze]

Hm, no mention of the longer range GFS? Fantasy sure, but 6+ inches of snow and 1F for a low in Dallas isn't your typical GFS run lol

Is this even in the realm of possibility of what is predicted at this stage of the game? Just wondering - thanks.

[GaryHughes]

Hm, no mention of the longer range GFS? Fantasy sure, but 6+ inches of snow and 1F for a low in Dallas isn't your typical GFS run lol

Is this even in the realm of possibility of what is predicted at this stage of the game? Just wondering - thanks.

Ntwx,
I would not be suprised to see that, this is getting very interesting.

[Nicko999]

Please put me out of my misery and tell me what those maps are saying the temperature will be over my location.

Those -50F's you saw over Alaska last month from a distance, well they won't be so distant. And you will probably see them much longer than they did.

Now it will be a race between me and Nick to see who gets to Jamaica first.

Actually we never get as cold as Saskatchewan so go ahead and feel free to leave ... Looking at the models... the cold will not be as strong by the time it comes here.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS IT IS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF PACIFIC
ENERGY. ONCE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
PLAINS...NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A QUICK INITIAL HIT OF A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE STATES. FOR ANY
SERIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSIONS INTO TEXAS...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A COUPLE
ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO HEAD SOUTH. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN IN 10-14 DAYS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR.

I want to believe in this. Hopefully the models don't let us down.

[Cyclenall]

With regards to the SSW and other factors, I have some questions (to Ntxw):

1. What values was the AO during January and then into February 1985? A link to past AO records?
2. I read on the weather centre's blog with its excellent in-depth analysis on the coming cold talking mostly about the SSW, that the Polar Vortex has to remain in some form to prevent the atmosphere from becoming "chaos"...what does that actually mean?

Link to Fantastic Polar Vortex Collapse News: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca

Right now the models do not show historic cold of any kind, very cold yes. However there is the remote possibility the SSW will pop the -EPO ridge sending even higher heights to Alaska, if that happens then we can talk historic. Still a remote chance

While I am all in favor of some decent cold. Just remember two years ago when both of the "reliable" models showed a 1050+ high building down the plains in the 6-7 day outlook and it just did not happen. Even some of the more conservative mets were acknowledging an arctic pluge. Perhaps this time will be different.

It depends on where you are. Some get it some don't. The East coast this time is at risk from the SE ridge that will block any strong cold air intrusion

Yeah I don't like the sound of this, I rather record-breaking cold then just very cold since there is nothing good with the latter...at least the former is "interesting" and "new". If it is very dry as well then its the worst possible pattern.

Another note to give you an idea of the kind of cold that this pattern could tap into and lock in over North America....the snow cover for last month in the Northern Hemisphere just set the December all time record. The record it just broke was back in.......................December of 1984!! Preceding the historic outbreak of January of 1985

Yet another similarity, crap. Strangely enough, I checked some records for January 1985 around the GL areas and it wasn't all that cold...not as cold as January 2004 at least so I have no clue as to what made it warmer...the lakes?

Quit it! Do NOT hope, dream, or pray for cold.........because if we get the FULL MONTY of Old Man Winter I WILL be sending him down and he is NOT a pretty sight. He is OLD, MEAN and UGLY and he will be your worst nightmare!!!

Please DO NOT tempt him!

No use posting this in this thread, I did and had posts beginning with "No Offence" a few times . What I don't get is any negative response is never pointed at you...they must be used to you .

I would never tempt Old Man Winter. Well, only on days that end in "y."

Nice one .

One thing to watch to see if the "experts" are really buying into this is to follow the money. The futures markets listen to their hired-gun forecasters, and invest accordingly. Natural gas futures have been dropping steadily over the past weeks and months. If this starts to look like the real deal, watch them spike.

Good tip, I didn't even think of that.

Along with the X-Factor in this setup - the Major SSW occurring now, It's hard to ignore the similarities to 1985 though....just look at the 500 mb Northern Hemisphere pattern for January of 1985 to the GFS ensemble long range forecast in the 10-15 day range

I'm not certain on this but most of the major blasts probably happened the same way regarding SSW.

The thing about 1985 and what the models are forecasting has subtle differences which makes a big difference. 1985 was very +PNA/extreme -NAO induced. Noticed the insane anomalies over Greenland. This essentially glides the high pressure southeast and Texas got glancing blows. Core of the cold was over the Lakes and northeast/mid-atlantic.

The second anomaly map is -EPO dominated with the -PNA which will slide the high down the west and central conus much like the other -EPO dominated periods of 83 and 89. This is if forecasting holds. I haven't yet seen the 564+ dm's over Greenland to point towards 1985

I like to use this site for analog patterns

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

To the bolded part, eariler in this post I mentioned how it was actually not that bad in the Great Lakes based on the climate data I checked (below average but not crazy cold), and that link shows the PV fairly close to the locations checked...odd. For example, January 2004 was much colder than January 1985 for mid-western Ontario. That's a good link though, I wish it went back further so I could check February 1899, February 1934, and January 1935. The coldest temperature in Ontario's history was −58.3 °C (−73 °F) set in Iroquois Falls on January 23, 1935.

Please put me out of my misery and tell me what those maps are saying the temperature will be over my location.

To quote one of the Joplin convenience store tornado survivors from that video, this s*** is getting real. 1062 mb high from the Canadian is this model showing its true colours, it likes the cold!

Now it will be a race between me and Nick to see who gets to Jamaica first.

It'll be a race between how fast you can put the fire wood in the stove and how cold the house will get . I haven't checked the Canadian thread yet but I have a feeling Nick is more then not okay with this .

Actually we never get as cold as Saskatchewan so go ahead and feel free to leave ... Looking at the models... the cold will not be as strong by the time it comes here.

I think SS knows this, referring to just very cold weather bothering you more because even if its not -50ºC in Montreal, you still wouldn't like the coldest your region can give you.

[cycloneye]

The AO is forecast to go way negative.



Also the NAO.



The PNA is forecast to go down between neutral and negative.

[NDG]

My quick forecast by looking at the 06z GFS ensembles heights forecast:
Next 6-9 days look for the western US to be colder than average and the eastern US to be warmer than average, I would throw TX in the mix bag of both at times.



By the 10-15th day, look for that polar vortex to possibly position over central Canada wich will turn the central and northern US colder than average. Not sure yet how far south the bitter Arctic air will invade to the south.