Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GaryHughes]

18z GFS is pretty wild. -EPO sends no less than 3-5 big highs, that would be a very long duration of intense cold. That Alaska region signature is wicked. That's what I meant by "pop"

18z is nuts. It seems like everyday the models get bolder and colder, which is not usually the norm.

iorange55,

What kind of higs and lows for temps? And how about duration for North Tx?

[Snowbeagle]

18z GFS is pretty wild. -EPO sends no less than 3-5 big highs, that would be a very long duration of intense cold. That Alaska region signature is wicked. That's what I meant by "pop"

18z is nuts. It seems like everyday the models get bolder and colder, which is not usually the norm.

yeah... though, we're still talking about 10 days from now right? plenty of time for the models to reverse their tune. I'm not getting too wound up yet.

[iorange55]

iorange55,

What kind of higs and lows for temps? And how about duration for North Tx?

Oh, lawd...I couldn't even begin to tell you. It's still too far out to talk specifics. Just know that if the models keep trending the way they are trending it will probably be very cold. It's still a long way out, we're just kind of "geeking" out about it right now.

[Rgv20]

Latest CFSv2 forecasting below normal temperatures starting on the 11th of January for Texas..

[Ntxw]

A lot of people seem to be getting confused about time frames and what we're talking about with the weather geek-dom terms. Accuweather is catching on and maybe their layman's terms might be easier to understand

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -t/3586088

[Texas Snowman]

The end of FW NWS afternoon discussion..

EXTENDED...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX LATE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN OUR MID-WEEK SYSTEM...AND
AS A RESULT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT TO PRODUCE HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. OF COURSE THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 7 TO 8 DAYS OUT...AND ITS FORECAST EVOLUTION MAY CHANGE
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY WITH
NEXT WEEKENDS COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW.

Right.

And these are the same guys that said a few days out that it wasn't going to snow on Christmas Eve 2009. And the same ones that said a few days out that it wasn't going to snow appreciably a few days before Jerry's big NFL party at the Death Star. And the same ones that said a few days out that it wasn't going to appreciably snow on Christmas Day 2012. And...

Let's just say that - with all due respect - I don't pay a whole lot of attention to Fort Worth NWS and their winter weather forecasts until a day or two before an event.

EDIT: And I'm also pretty sure that they didn't call for more than 12 inches of snow to fall and set DFW's new 24-hour snowfall record just a few years back.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

If what this board is discussing is indeed true, then the FW AFD is completely irresponsible, and if the events play out as suggested here, people should be fired. Nero would be embarrassed.

[weatherguy425]

If what this board is discussing is indeed true, then the FW AFD is completely irresponsible, and if the events play out as suggested here, people should be fired. Nero would be embarrassed.

We must remember that this is a 'stepping down' type of process as a very wise forum moderator once said.
the first wave in this train of cold fronts may not be all that abnormal; but will likely grow progressively colder as time goes on. Add to this the fact that the first front in the series is just now emerging into the 7th day of the forecast package... it is very reasonable for local WFO's to not completely bite just yet.

[gboudx]

For anyone that doesn't receive Larry Cosgrove's WeatherAmerica newsletters, here is Part 2 he posted tonight.

http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ts_article

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

425, I'm not saying they have to bite, but to give guidance that is opposite of the model consensus just seems wrong. This has the potential for significant disruption, and people should begin to prepare for the worst.

[weatherguy425]

I think there is a misunderstanding as to the timing of this potential Arctic outbreak. Next weekends front will not be 'the motherload'; it will most likely only serve to knock temperatures back beliw average. The most notable cold plunges dont look to occur until later in January (17th or so).

[NDG]

If what this board is discussing is indeed true, then the FW AFD is completely irresponsible, and if the events play out as suggested here, people should be fired. Nero would be embarrassed.

I don't think anybody is talking here in this board about getting that cold yet in the DFW for next weekend, everything is pointing towards the second half of the month. Their AFD is nothing wrong for next weekend.

[dhweather]

If what this board is discussing is indeed true, then the FW AFD is completely irresponsible, and if the events play out as suggested here, people should be fired. Nero would be embarrassed.

If he's right, what should be done?

Cavanaugh (who wrote this) writes the most detailed AFD's of any NWS forecaster I've seen. I greatly appreciate his granular detail in his AFD.

They aren't going to introduce dramatic changes in the AFD 7-10 days out, it's not gonna happen. As we get closer, if it looks like it might happen, they will introduce it gradually. I'd say by Tuesday/Wednesday, we'll know a whole lot more.

[Ntxw]

I've been watching a little system around the 12/13th+-. Before it was in low res but now it's coming into the better frames so I'm going to mention. GFS has quietly been hinting at a possible snow event for North and parts of Central Texas. That would be one week from today. Lets just leave it at that for now, something we can monitor along with the cold air to follow.

It also has it's first 1050+ (1051mb) high in the first of a series of highs <- Edit: 1052

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I like what the MJO is thinking....

[Texas Snowman]

I've been watching a little system around the 12/13th+-. Before it was in low res but now it's coming into the better frames so I'm going to mention. GFS has quietly been hinting at a possible snow event for North and parts of Central Texas. That would be one week from today. Lets just leave it at that for now, something we can monitor along with the cold air to follow.

It also has it's first 1050+ (1051mb) high in the first of a series of highs <- Edit: 1052

http://i45.tinypic.com/otqgrr.gif

The December 1983 cold wave started off with a sneaky little snow event in the Red River Valley. I was a senior in high school and vividly remember it. Only a 20 % chance of snow turned into a 4-6 inch event. We had to go to school even with the snow (it was the last day before that year's Christmas break began) and we had snowball fights all day between classes). That was the start of our record streak of more than 290 hours of consecutive hours at or below freezing.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS

PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING OVER THE SLOWER ECMWF AFTER WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
PULL THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY. NO FRONT
WILL SUCCEED THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ALL OF THE OTHER
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE
HOLD THE FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPS MUCH WARMER
THAN GFS MOS SATURDAY DUE TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING. AS FAR AS
ANY ARCTIC AIR...THE GFS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN
EVENTUAL INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS IN 10-14 DAYS...
HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS NOT ON BOARD AS IT IS FORECASTING A SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THAT WOULD KEEP ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. EITHER
WAY IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT
COLD SNAP WILL VISIT THE REGION.

[NDG]

Has last night's ECMWF's run thrown a curve ball or what? Lol

[weatherdude1108]

Potential for MUCH NEEDED rain this week.

New Braunfels (EWX) Discussion:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN JAN 6 2013/

...INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MID WEEK HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. AFTER A COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF OUR AREA...NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INDUCING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY TO THE BIG BEND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN AN
INVERTED TROUGH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LIFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INDICATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
A TORNADO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PWS RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR JANUARY INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. THE HIGHER VALUES ARE
NEAR THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED VALUES FOR JANUARY. THUS...THESE
PWS...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST HIGHWAY 281 WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WILL
TAPER OFF TO NEAR 1/2 INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM.

[Portastorm]

Has last night's ECMWF's run thrown a curve ball or what? Lol

In short, yes. Both the operational and ensemble means from the 0z Euro have shifted the full latitude trough more to the west. The GFS has remained consistent and continues to suggest an Arctic outbreak in 7-10 days. Interesting to note just how different the 0z Euro op run is from yesterday's 12z run. I generally follow King Euro but in this case his inconsistency has me concerned.