Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

January 8 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Windy with for isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 5:48 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 5:53 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 5:54 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE JAN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN USA ON WEDNESDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS.
WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO UP TO
30 IN SOME CASES UNTIL ABOUT 08/23Z...THEREAFTER THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 82 77 81 / 30 30 30 50
STT 77 79 76 85 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Usually January is the coldest month of the year but this month has been warmer than normal in Central America, no significant cold surges have affected Central America since Christmas. Right now we have moderate easterlies in the region but they're tropical and warm so the tempertures are warmer than normal.

The lastest HPC discussion:

DISCUSSION FROM JAN 08/00UTC: DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ENTERED NORTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH 24-30 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO
FOCUS ITS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SONORA-CHIHUAHUA TO
COAHUILA/RIO BRAVO-TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH IS TO THEN LIFT
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL USA BY 54-60 HRS...PULLING FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST LATER IN THE CYCLE. AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THE TROUGH IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
IT IS LIKELY TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS IN
CHIHUAHUA. ALONG THE RIO BRAVO/PORTIONS OF COAHUILA IT IS TO FAVOR
SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY... WHILE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE EXPECTING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 03-06CM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 10CM. THIS TROUGH
IS TO THEN INTERACT WITH AN OLD/MEANDERING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
USA...SUSTAINING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS
TO FORM BY 24-36 HRS...INDUCING THE UNDULATION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS TEXAS TO COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON-NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS BY
42-48 HRS. AT 48-72 HRS...AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL USA...THE FRONT IS TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN. DURING THAT
PERIOD EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM/DAY IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST IS TO ALIGN NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG
88W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY THIS
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST A BLOCKING RIDGE TO
THE EAST...AS THE LATTER MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL FORCE THE TROUGH TO
GRADUALLY SHEAR AS IT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH 48-60 HRS. REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
PULL ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72-84 HRS. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS/ ISLAS DE LA BAHIA-BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH
48-60 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE...A SECONDARY MOIST SURGE REACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WHILE FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. AS THE TROUGH PULLS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...SOME
INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ITCZ AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAUCA VALLEY IN COLOMBIA. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. THROUGH 72-96 HRS MODELS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INTENSIFIES IN THIS AREA...WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SUSTAINS A
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE IT IS INHIBITING ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TENDS TO HOLD NEARLY
UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. IT IS TO THEN REESTABLISH
FARTHER TO THE WEST...WITH AXIS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO THE EASTERN USA. CHANGES AT MID LEVEL ARE MORE NOTICEABLE...
WITH RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE BASIN AS IT RELOCATES TOWARDS
THE EASTERN USA/GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE CENTERING ON A HIGH THAT
MEANDERS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...IF NOT STRENGTHEN...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS IT REFLECTS AS AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS SUSTAINS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. THROUGH 42-48 HRS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TO BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST...SUSTAINING A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR A SHEAR LIEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES BY 72 HRS...INTO THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLAND/ORINOCO DELTA REGION BY 96 HRS.

THE 850 HPA WINDS PEAK AT 35-55KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THEY
RANGE BETWEEN 25-30KT. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE FLOW IS TO CONVERGE
ALONG A MOIST TONGUE ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BUT
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES...MOISTURE WILL EBB AWAY
AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS-NORTHERN VENEZUELA/ABC ISLES EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE CYCLE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 20-30MM/DAY AS THE SHEAR LINE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA/
NORTHEAST HONDURAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AS THE COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN ESTABLISHES...
THE ENSUING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DENSER SHALLOW
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS. DURING THAT PERIOD THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY. MAXIMA ON DAY 03 INCREASES TO
10-15MM AS SHEAR LINE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ MEANDERS WEST ALONG 01N/02N...CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN GUIANAS-AMAZONIA IN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA-RORAIMA IN BRASIL.
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...IN INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
TROUGH OVER BRASIL...WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
AMAPA/AMAZON RIVER DELTA IN BRASIL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRENCH
GUIANA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM/DAY THEREAFTER. ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS EXPECT
LESSER AMOUNTS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST TUE JAN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE ERN CARIB/WCNTRL ATLC
WILL RELOCATE TO THE BAHAMAS/WRN CARIB ON WED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FCST TO DIG ACROSS THE NE CARIB WED. TRADES WILL START TO
DIMINISH ON THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD AND WHILE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RELOCATE TO THE BAHAMAS/FL PENINSULA WED AND THU UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DIGGING TROF ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD
MOTION. BUT AS SFC WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
FALL THIS WILL FAVOR MORE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU
NIGHT...FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIG DROP IN PWAT VALUES FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LOT OF SUNNY DAYS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 18 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30+ KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON THU AS WINDS DIMINISH. LARGE NNE SWELLS WILL START
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SUN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT WED. MORE CLOUDS
AND A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS THU-SAT WILL MITIGATE/TEMPER THE FIRE
RISK. FIRE DANGER INCREASES AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
SUPPRESING CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 77 81 / 20 20 30 50
STT 74 85 76 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED JAN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO OVERALL CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPERIENCED LAST FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED
AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION...AS EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
TRANSPORT THESE PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL...AS THE SHOWERS MOVE QUICKLY. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATED A BIG AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
EXPECT SOME VCSH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 81 72 / 20 30 50 30
STT 85 74 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

January 9 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:48 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:53 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:54 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED JAN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ITS AXIS TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A BROAD TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ITS AXIS
TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE JET MAXIMA. AS A RESULT...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PASSING SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT AROUND 26 KTS. PATTERN OF BRIEF MVFR IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN TJMZ DUE TO CIGS. MVFR CONDS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY BETWEEN 10/08-10/14Z...WITH
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS AFTERWARD. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST LLVL
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS INCREASE UP TO 35-40 KNOTS AT 7 KFT THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 82 77 80 / 40 50 20 20
STT 76 85 77 83 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST THU JAN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT STARTING
TODAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES DOMINATING THE
LOCAL AREA. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN CONDITIONS LOOKS A LITTLE BIT
WETTER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. GFS
COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL RISE FROM
1.0 INCH TODAY THROUGH NEAR 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY...AND THETAE
VALUES AT 700MB WILL INCREASE FROM 315K TO NEAR 330K. IN
GENERAL...CONDITIONS LOOKS DRY AGAIN AFTER SATURDAY...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN PASSING SHRA. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST LLVL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
GUSTING TO UP TO 25KTS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL
AROUND 10/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...VERY LARGE NNE SWELLS ARE NOW ADVERTISED BY
WW3 AS DEEP LOW GETS CUTOFF IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 77 80 77 / 40 30 30 50
STT 85 77 83 77 / 10 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

January 10 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:49 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:54 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:55 p.m.
 
 

 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU JAN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRANSITED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND PASSES
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA...MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
HISPANIOLA BY TUESDAY AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY...LEAVING A
TRAILING TROUGH UNTIL RIDGING RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR FLORIDA AND CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...GROWS IN SIZE AND THEN CUTS OFF ON MONDAY. DURING THE
WEEK IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA UNTIL IT IS BUT 900 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST...YET IT IS UNABLE TO DISPLACE THE HIGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BY...LOWERING
DEWPOINTS EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DURING THE
WEEK THE LOW SLIPS SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MID WEEK
FROM THE NORTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND BY SATURDAY IT CONTROLS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND MAINTAINS MODERATE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NEARBY BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO REINFORCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND WINDWARD LAND AREAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY BRINGS MORE SHOWERS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE SET TO IMPROVE SUNDAY BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AREAS
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CARRIED IN
ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE VERY LARGE LOW THAT DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN
PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. EAST
NORTHEAST LLVL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST WAVE MODELS SHOW INCREASING SWELL FROM THE STRONG
LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STARTING ON SATURDAY AND
PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET
WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY ON COASTS WITH A NORTHERN EXPOSURE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY MONDAY WITH A FEW WAVE SETS AS HIGH AS 20
TO 25 FEET. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL WATCH MODELS CLOSELY
TOMORROW FOR CONFIRMATION OF THE STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN
THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE MEANTIME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN MOST ZONES DUE TO WAVES INDUCED BY THE
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 81 77 79 / 40 40 50 70
STT 77 82 77 83 / 40 30 20 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A variable weekend between sun,clouds and scattered showers will be the rule in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST FRI JAN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER...MORE STABLE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR
AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
STILL WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND...PASSING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS. HOWEVER...LARGE
LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE. A BRIEF BREAK IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN.

IN ADDITION...THE UPCOMING NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS AND VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST ATLANTIC
FACING COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 80 72 / 30 50 50 30
STT 82 76 83 76 / 20 20 40 20

[msbee]

St. Maarten weather forecasts have always been issued from Curacao, as we have always been part of the Netherlands Antilles.
Now that the Netherlands Antilles has been broken up, we have our own local Met Office, which will be issuing forecasts.
The link to them is:

http://www.meteosxm.com

[cycloneye]

St. Maarten weather forecasts have always been issued from Curacao, as we have always been part of the Netherlands Antilles.
Now that the Netherlands Antilles has been broken up, we have our own local Met Office, which will be issuing forecasts.
The link to them is:

http://www.meteosxm.com

Thanks you Barbara for posting it. It will be very helpful when any bad weather occurs not only in hurricane season for us to know what is going on over there. Also will be good to see how the weather is doing on a daily basis.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST FRI JAN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF A STRONG LOW WILL PASS
TOMORROW MORNING. A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER CUBA MOVES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WHILE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH...PASSING SUNDAY
NIGHT. A CUT-OFF LOW OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT MOVES TO THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND PULLS A TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1750 MILES NORTHEAST. A
RIDGE INTERVENES ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 22 NORTH ON THURSDAY
AND TO THE NORTHEAST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. IN THE
MEANTIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSES
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT LOWER LEVELS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND A STRONG LOW THAT DOMINATES
ALL OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL COME
DOWN IN THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW BEING LIGHT AND SHALLOW SHOWERS
WITH BREAKS OF CLEARING FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW IS CONTINUING TO BRING BANDS OF
MOISTURE AND SHALLOW SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST BAND NOW
APPEARS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BEING JOINED BY
ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME DRYING ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW LESS DRY AIR NOW FOR
SUNDAY THAN THEY DID BEFORE...SO NO LONGER EXPECT SHOWERS TO
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL PREVENT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. SO FOR SUNNIER
WEATHER A TRIP TO THE SOUTH SIDE WILL DO NICELY. MODELS SHOW MORE
MOISTURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE. WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE MORE
RELAXED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WIND WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE NOT LONGER ADVANCING LONG PERIOD WAVES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY HAVE NOT
BACKED OFF THE LENGTH OF PERIOD OR HEIGHT FOR THE PEAK SWELL
HEIGHT ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLIER AT THE
NEXT SHIFT`S DISCRETION. HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 80 73 80 / 70 70 50 50
STT 75 83 74 82 / 20 70 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Watch out in the beaches as the swells are very high.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STILL FORCE THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER...MORE
STABLE AND COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING
EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
VORTEX...SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. THEREAFTER...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THAT SAID...
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THEN...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH A PART
OF TUESDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCALLY AGAIN...FOLLOWED BY AN
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
PROBABLY THURSDAY ALSO...BUT STILL WITH THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND...
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGIN FOR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES...
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR VARIOUS NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTAL AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO ALL LOCAL
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FORECAST DETAILS AND AREAL DELINEATIONS OF
WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 77 80 77 / 70 40 20 10
STT 83 76 82 76 / 40 40 20 10

[cycloneye]

January 12 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:50 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 5:55 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 5:56 p.m.
 


[Gustywind]

St. Maarten weather forecasts have always been issued from Curacao, as we have always been part of the Netherlands Antilles.
Now that the Netherlands Antilles has been broken up, we have our own local Met Office, which will be issuing forecasts.
The link to them is:

http://www.meteosxm.com

Thanks you Barbara for posting it. It will be very helpful when any bad weather occurs not only in hurricane season for us to know what is going on over there. Also will be good to see how the weather is doing on a daily basis.

That's a very interresting link! Good job Barbara, we appreciate sincerely

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NOT MOVE VERY
MUCH. SAME APPLIES TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND IN TANDEM THEY WILL CAUSE A LONG TRAJECTORY OF AIR FLOWING HERE
FROM THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL.

BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN PR/USVI AND 20N MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL PASS OVER THESE ISLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BAND
WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO BARE MINIMUM SUN/MON. NAM/GFS EVEN
DRY OUT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER MORE THAN USUAL.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK CLOSER TO EASTERLY BY
WED/THU WHICH WILL BRING TRADE WIND SHOWERS BACK MORE TO NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

HEAVY SURF EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO BUOYS WELL NORTH OF AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO
QUITE AS SERIOUS AS MODELS SUGGESTED.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ON COASTAL WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS TO BUILD TONIGHT...
MAINLY ON ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

LARGE SWELL EVENT IS SLOW TO BEGIN. GRAPHICAL GWW MODEL INDICATES
BUOY 41049 SHOULD BE ALMOST 13 FT BY 18Z THOUGH SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS ARE PROBABLY JUST NOW ARRIVING THERE. BUT 18Z
OBSERVATION IS STILL ABOUT 9 FT. PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS SHOWING
7-8 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ON ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 80 77 81 / 60 10 10 20
STT 76 82 76 83 / 40 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

This is a very dangerous time to be on a small boat or on the beach in the water.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

...LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...GENERATED BY A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL BEGIN ARRIVING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT...BUILD THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS WITH VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WATER LEVEL RISES
THAT COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING.

PRZ010-013-VIZ002-130945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.130113T0400Z-130115T2100Z/
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-VIEQUES-ST CROIX-
533 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
5 PM AST TUESDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
5 PM AST TUESDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: SWELLS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 9
TO 13 FEET.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TIMES OF SOME HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

MAYAGUEZ:

ESPERANZA VIEQUES: MONDAY 10:28 AM AT 0.76 FEET

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX:MONDAY 10:11 AM AT 0.78 FEET

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

please tell me the temperature there Cycloneye......I may just come vist!