Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Keep reading things about a very cold pattern that can lock in. Bring me some Moosejaw dammit!!

Patience grasshopper.......its coming.
Truly I'd be careful what you wish for......Moose Jaw today wasn't that cold but my oh my was it ever miserable out there.

[HockeyTx82]

When was the last time we saw something like this?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

it actually brings tears to my eyes.........

[Portastorm]

It's a beautiful thing, ain't it?!

Close to two inches of rain has fallen at the Portastorm Weather Center in the last 48 hours with more to come. Grateful.

[weatherdude1108]

2.39 inches (and counting) in the last 24 hours here!
I'm ecstatic!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Porta, glad to hear the ATX is getting some healthy rains.

[Portastorm]

Porta, glad to hear the ATX is getting some healthy rains.

Thanks man. The real good news is that the rain has been spread fairly wide so the Hill Country is getting several inches of rain. While it's not much, any little bit will help out the Highland Lakes chain, including Lake Travis.

weatherdude ... nice to see you giving that new weather station of yours a workout!

[BigB0882]

Where can I go to see rain totals for my area (Baton Rouge, LA)? I should just get a rain gauge but I figure someone has to be tracking rain on some website, haha.

[gboudx]

Where can I go to see rain totals for my area (Baton Rouge, LA)? I should just get a rain gauge but I figure someone has to be tracking rain on some website, haha.

The LIX website has the precip radar estimate on the radar page. Looks like all of the Capitol region is over 2+.

Also see if there's a personal weather station near you at this link:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/about.asp

When I lived in Prairieville, there was one nearby that I would use for info.

[dhweather]

Glad you guys are getting some rain.

We're up to 1.48 here on the far east side of the metroplex, I'm hoping another 2 happens today, but I don't think it will happen. FWD NWS says an MCS has formed off the coast, and it's basically going to steal the moisture stream, killing off heavy rain chances for us.

THE MCS IN THE GULF EAST OF BROWNSVILLE WILL HEAD TOWARD SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS MORNING EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT HGX CWA
(AND EVENTUALLY SHV CWA). IN SO DOING...THIS CONVECTION TO OUR
EAST SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
WITHIN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST WATCH
IF NECESSARY.

Looks like the GFS will have nailed where the heaviest rain occurs - in the Gulf and into Coastal TX / Louisiana.

[wxman57]

My 3rd day in Austin (AMS meeting) and no sign of a drought. All it does is rain here! Hope I get to meet Portastorm for lunch. I'm free any time later this morning/early PM. Check-out time 1:30pm then I drive back to Houston, though I may wait here a bit for the storms to get farther ahead of my drive.

[CaptinCrunch]

I had 2.75 inches in rain gauge this morning and it's growing. I haven't seen my backyard standing in water since early spring of last year.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's the last part of NWS FTW over night AFD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES SNEAKING DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS...THE COARSE VERTICAL RESOLUTION OF THE GFS TENDS TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. WILL FAVOR
THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE FAST ECMWF. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE AMPLE TIME TO
RECOVER BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHARPLY
COLDER...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SLOW TO PASS. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BE FALLING FROM A WARM LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE IN THE 40S. SUCH PRECIPITATION WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER GFS...THE 850MB FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NEW 06Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THE
SUBFREEZING SURFACE AIR...AND THE WARMER ECMWF HAS ONLY A COLD RAIN.
WILL CARRY SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.

PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

[weatherdude1108]

Porta, glad to hear the ATX is getting some healthy rains.

Thanks man. The real good news is that the rain has been spread fairly wide so the Hill Country is getting several inches of rain. While it's not much, any little bit will help out the Highland Lakes chain, including Lake Travis.

weatherdude ... nice to see you giving that new weather station of yours a workout!

Oh yeah! Nice test to see everything works! Rain sensor was the last test. I compared the weather station digital rain sensor to an analog rain gauge I have setting right next to it. Both are out in the open away from trees and obstacles which can affect the amount. The analog rain gauge showed 2.7 inches (0.3-inch more than the digital rain sensor). The NWC Precipitation analysis shows around 2 inches (+/- 0.5-inch) for my area in the last 24 hours.

Interesting to see the slight variability comparing the side-by-side field measurements to what the weather service map shows.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

In any case, the hill country is benefitting! Only slight runoff reported, not expected to effect levels based on the dry soils that absorbed most of it. If we get something like this again soon, we'll definitely get a boost in levels! Not confident in another rain system like this in the near term. Hopefully the soils won't dry out before the next one comes.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/river_report.html

[arizona_sooner]

Wow I am very happy for you Texas guys with all the rain... Up here in Tulsa, only about 0.20" has been recorded at the mesonet rain gauge nearest to my house. Not much but better than nothing.

I am hoping we get some additional precip in OK when the upper low lifts out this evening and tomorrow.

Ordinarily I'd be hoping for some winter precip this weekend, but I fly from TUL to DFW on Monday morning (and then out of the country), so let's just go with cold and dry between, say, Saturday night and Monday night!

[weatherdude1108]

I had 2.75 inches in rain gauge this morning and it's growing. I haven't seen my backyard standing in water since early spring of last year.

I have standing water in my backyard too! First time probably since September I think, so you have me beat. This will definitely help to replenish moisture that was lost the past several months.

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately for those that enjoy severe cold outbreaks, it appears that the extreme arctic cold created by the borderline Major SSW event will be heading once again to the other side of the pole into Eurasia!! Not saying it can't find away to get back over to North America at some point but probably not until February, if at all. The MJO forecast is not very favorable at all for extreme cold over the next two weeks....it doesn't even seem to progress past phase 6 and then crashes down into the circle of death(8-1-2 are the US cold signals).


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately for those that enjoy severe cold outbreaks, it appears that the extreme arctic cold created by the borderline Major SSW event will be heading once again to the other side of the pole into Eurasia!! Not saying it can't find away to get back over to North America at some point but probably not until February, if at all. The MJO forecast is not very favorable at all for extreme cold over the next two weeks....it doesn't even seem to progress past phase 6 and then crashes down into the circle of death(8-1-2 are the US cold signals).


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Where do you see this? I haven't seen signs of a Caspian Sea vortex

[HouTXmetro]

Unfortunately for those that enjoy severe cold outbreaks, it appears that the extreme arctic cold created by the borderline Major SSW event will be heading once again to the other side of the pole into Eurasia!! Not saying it can't find away to get back over to North America at some point but probably not until February, if at all. The MJO forecast is not very favorable at all for extreme cold over the next two weeks....it doesn't even seem to progress past phase 6 and then crashes down into the circle of death(8-1-2 are the US cold signals).


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

If that's the case I need a SIGNIFICANT warm up to Spring Like temperatures.

[Ntxw]

GFS underestimated for a lot of areas in North Texas. DFW is nearing 3 inches, and areas from a Waco to Corsicana line is over 4 inches with lift still ongoing. NAM and Euro did best here. Storm is just crossing the TX/MX border, look for another round of rain to fire in Central Texas this afternoon

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately for those that enjoy severe cold outbreaks, it appears that the extreme arctic cold created by the borderline Major SSW event will be heading once again to the other side of the pole into Eurasia!! Not saying it can't find away to get back over to North America at some point but probably not until February, if at all. The MJO forecast is not very favorable at all for extreme cold over the next two weeks....it doesn't even seem to progress past phase 6 and then crashes down into the circle of death(8-1-2 are the US cold signals).


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Where do you see this? I haven't seen signs of a Caspian Sea vortex

Not looking at the Vortex....the split PV is forecast to weaken drastically in the 7-10 day range even over North America. What I'm looking at are the temperature anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere in the next 2 weeks. Just look at the extreme cold over Eurasia in the 10-15 day range compared to North America. These anomalies are more than likely a by product of the SSW - where the cold air developed and the flow out of the Arctic