Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Look at how strong the subtropical ridge is over the Bahamas (big pink circle). That is an unusually strong ridge for this time of year and is the reason why it is so warm as cold fronts can't make it into Florida with this kind of setup. The 72 hour 00Z GFS 500MB map shown below:

[NDG]

That's the kind of strong mid level ridge that we like to see in the middle of the hurricane season to protect us from the hurricanes.
I guess for this time of the year we can say that it is protecting us from the freezing cold weather

[FireRat]

And that's also the kind of strong ridge that gives Peninsular Florida its reputation as a "winterless" place in the US.

It's those above-average 80 degree days that help fuel the tourism economy down here.
If temps were seasonal-to-below normal right now, many tourists might think Florida was a bit on the cool side, especially tourists from Latin America or southern Europe where the climate is also mild.

I wonder what tourists thought in January 2010 and again in December 2010 when down here?

Enjoy the beach weather while you still can

[TheStormExpert]

Look at how strong the subtropical ridge is over the Bahamas (big pink circle). That is an unusually strong ridge for this time of year and is the reason why it is so warm as cold fronts can't make it into Florida with this kind of setup. The 72 hour 00Z GFS 500MB map shown below:

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/9581 ... sltrop.gif

If this pattern/setup was in place in the middle of hurricane season Florida would really have to watch every system that came off Africa or formed to east of Florida right?

[psyclone]

Floridians have a stretch of astonishingly warm weather to look forward to that looks remarkably persistent considering the calendar. here in west central florida, highs of around 10 degrees above normal will pair with even more impressive mins of about +15 for several days at least. I am loving it! should the advertised potential big cool down transpire as a result of the SSW event, that cold will likely commence in the west and only slowly bleed east and south leaving Florida's winter refugees the last to be impacted. Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts

[northjaxpro]

Floridians have a stretch of astonishingly warm weather to look forward to that looks remarkably persistent considering the calendar. here in west central florida, highs of around 10 degrees above normal will pair with even more impressive mins of about +15 for several days at least. I am loving it! should the advertised potential big cool down transpire as a result of the SSW event, that cold will likely commence in the west and only slowly bleed east and south leaving Florida's winter refugees the last to be impacted. Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts

Yep. That pretty much sums up the pattern we have been so very fortunate to have been receiving for the most part this winter so far. I think this above normal pattern will be with us for at least the next 10 days. Changes may come for the last 1/3 of January with some modified polar air trying to head eastward. Still a long ways out to monitor that, so defintely enjoy April weather in January right now folks while it is around.

I have only registed 5 days of temps reaching 32 degrees or lower so far this Fall/Winter at my location, with only three of those occuring after December 1, 2012. The coldest temp so far measured was 29 degrees on Decemeber 23, 2012. Yeah, it has been a very mild winter to this point for sure.

[gatorcane]

Look at how strong the subtropical ridge is over the Bahamas (big pink circle). That is an unusually strong ridge for this time of year and is the reason why it is so warm as cold fronts can't make it into Florida with this kind of setup. The 72 hour 00Z GFS 500MB map shown below:

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/9581 ... sltrop.gif

If this pattern/setup was in place in the middle of hurricane season Florida would really have to watch every system that came off Africa or formed to east of Florida right?

As NDG mentions, that ridge shown above would protect Florida from tropical systems from the east as they would either recurve out to sea ahead of that ridge or would pass by well to the south if there was a system in the Caribbean.

Checking the 00Z GFS, this pattern persists for 10 days, quite amazing I must say. At 10 days below you can see finally the ridge collapses but given this is 240 hours out, it's not 100% that will even verify and the ridge could persist longer:



And look at this, the 00Z ECMWF model shows that ridge sustaining all the way through 240 hours!

[dizzyfish]

Well, I was looking forward to the warmth yesterday but the forecast didn't verify. Supposed to be 74 and it only made it to 66 (with a breeze and clouds). So far today isn't impressive either. These clouds need to scram!

[Patrick99]

Days in the 80s aren't exactly abnormal around here, even in December and January - but I'd say it's more the sheer persistence of that strong ridging that's abnormal. That's going to blunt most cold shots that try to make it down here, if not repel them entirely as we have seen for most of Dec/Jan.

Actually, what's most amazing is that so many of these nights aren't even getting below 70. Very nearly summer-like.

[boca]

Days in the 80s aren't exactly abnormal around here, even in December and January - but I'd say it's more the sheer persistence of that strong ridging that's abnormal. That's going to blunt most cold shots that try to make it down here, if not repel them entirely as we have seen for most of Dec/Jan.

Actually, what's most amazing is that so many of these nights aren't even getting below 70. Very nearly summer-like.

I can't even start a winter cancel threat because that would require us to have a winter.

[SouthFloridian92]

Look at how strong the subtropical ridge is over the Bahamas (big pink circle). That is an unusually strong ridge for this time of year and is the reason why it is so warm as cold fronts can't make it into Florida with this kind of setup. The 72 hour 00Z GFS 500MB map shown below:

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/9581 ... sltrop.gif

If this pattern/setup was in place in the middle of hurricane season Florida would really have to watch every system that came off Africa or formed to east of Florida right?

As NDG mentions, that ridge shown above would protect Florida from tropical systems from the east as they would either recurve out to sea ahead of that ridge or would pass by well to the south if there was a system in the Caribbean.

Checking the 00Z GFS, this pattern persists for 10 days, quite amazing I must say. At 10 days below you can see finally the ridge collapses but given this is 240 hours out, it's not 100% that will even verify and the ridge could persist longer:



And look at this, the 00Z ECMWF model shows that ridge sustaining all the way through 240 hours!

So that is the sole reason why it's been so hot?

This heat ain't no joke. It feels like the middle of summer outside. It's ridiculous.

I'm hoping to move somewhere that gets colder in a couple of years. Maybe to northern Florida or to Georgia, Tennessee or Alabama.

I sure do miss the winters of 2009 and 2010.

[Sanibel]

Never seen it this warm down here in January. Slept without blankets last two nights.

[NDG]

Ft Myers recorded a high of 88 degrees, broke the old record by 3 degrees! Sarasota and Tampa also broke their records along with Orlando today.

Tonight crickets are singing as if it is the spring already.

[Patrick99]

There is a strong salt smell on the fresh warm ocean breezes tonight from the strengthening high. Smells "tropical," and the passing cumulus clouds look the part. If I didn't know any better I'd think a tropical system was approaching.

[boca]

There is a strong salt smell on the fresh warm ocean breezes tonight from the strengthening high. Smells "tropical," and the passing cumulus clouds look the part. If I didn't know any better I'd think a tropical system was approaching.

I posted another interesting story about Austrlia'a weather in USA and Carribbean forum.I didnt put it in Global because I wanted people to read it.

[gsytch]

They went away big time! 81F Tue and 84F today, with more all week!

Well, I was looking forward to the warmth yesterday but the forecast didn't verify. Supposed to be 74 and it only made it to 66 (with a breeze and clouds). So far today isn't impressive either. These clouds need to scram!

[psyclone]

Still 74 at 11pm in Tampa after a high of 85. Outstanding.

[NDG]

H50 heights are at 593 dm across eastern and southern FL, that is incredible for this time of the year.

[Sanibel]

Still cruising in 80's. Near record high expected tomorrow 86*

80's for next 7 days.

San Carlos Bay gets a stinky smell because the water isn't supposed to be this warm at this time of the year.

[TheStormExpert]

Finally we may have below average temperatures here in Florida from Jan. 19-25 if this graphic above comes true. Im still not buying it because of how warm its been that it feels almost like June outside in the middle of January but it looks to start cooling down as early as next weekend for the Florida Peninsula.