Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

The stout High Pressure ridge dominating the SE U.S. is really locked in at least for the next 5 days, possibly longer. Tampa tied a record high temp for the date yesterday of 83 degrees and Sarasota set a new record high yesterday with 85 degrees.

It reached 82 degrees officially at the NWS office in Jax, and we will be approaching record levels the next few days. The plants and even the azaleas are going to begin blooming prematurely with this warmth.

Look for the ridge to finally begin to loosen its grip just a little by Thursday as a front will finally limp through at least the northern peninsula and bring temps down closer to near seasonable averages in the northern peninsula. However, the ridge will prevent the front from coming all the way through the peninsula at the end of this coming week. This will keep temps toasty across the central and southern peninsula all through next week.

Now, in the long range, things may finally change across the eastern portions of the United States for the week of January 20 - 26, as indicated above with NOAA's 8-14 day temp outlook that TheStomExpert posted above. There are subtle indications with the long range models that a colder pattern may finally come east and southward. However, the questions will be how cold it will be and if the stout ridge across the Southeast U.S., which has been present all winter long, will finally weaken and shift east to let colder air come into the Florida peninsula.

Things to watch for the next 10 - 14 days. But, for the time being, we should just make the most of the unseasonable warmth and get out and enjoy it, as we have for the most part. The calendar does say we should be in the dead of winter, but Mother Nature has given all of us here in Florida one heck of a bonus with these warm temps.

[SFLcane]

WFO miami this morning...

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA/DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
DAY 10/JAN 22 - A 1052MB ARCTIC HIGH. WHETHER OR NOT THIS AIRMASS
PLUNGES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA IS JUST TOO
EARLY TO TELL, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL LATE JANUARY
COLD SPELL.

[psyclone]

we're basically half way through the freeze season for the freeze sensitive ag zones of the peninsula. so far so good.

[NDG]

Definitely something to watch for the 4th week of January for a potential colder wx settling in the eastern US, but if the NAO stays neutral to slightly positive like the GFS ensembles have been showing, the cold core of the Arctic air may stay north of the Peninsula.

[gsytch]

Ive seen that cold intrusion. The last thing we need is a hard freeze after all this warmth. It appears it too will be blunted east (the core). But Feb is always a grabbag.

[Sanibel]

Nothing but warm January sun here which is unusual. The only thing keeping it from being summer like is the marine air off the Gulf.

[FireRat]

It's been very comfortable during the past several days in my area and throughout the rest of southeast Florida, thanks to a steady easterly wind. High temps have oscillated between 78 and 81 degrees with real-feel values near that too. Not winterlike for sure, but definitely not Summerlike (thank God!) Looks like the cooldown might begin in about 7 days, lets see if the trend is towards colder or warmer as we near the week of the 21st.

So far forecasts for inland parts of South Florida call for highs between 68 and 70 and lows in the mid 40s right after the 21st, and a cool trend remaining in place through early Feb (accuweather). That's a good 10 to 15 degree difference in both high and low temps that will sure make many happy in the southern part of this state!...that is if you prefer cooler weather

[boca]

A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENGULFS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED...WITH 1045-1050+ SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

Not gonna happen. Source is NWS Miami.

[SFLcane]

A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENGULFS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED...WITH 1045-1050+ SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

Not gonna happen. Source is NWS Miami.

Care to share why it wont?

[northjaxpro]

I think the Miami NWS guys are spot on with their analysis. The pattern will flip flop beginning early next week. That is just what the models are foreseeing within 7 days out.

The models are definitely coming together on a large upper level trough developing across the Eastern CONUS and with the ridge setting shop over the Western US. This will finally pave the way for some polar air to finally make some headway east and south.

Still a bit soon to tell how just how cold it will get across the FL peninsula, but indications are that Arctic High pressure in the 1045-1050mb range will drop down into the Northern Plains at the beginning of next week. If that verifies, that will provide a rather cold air mass to ooze down across much of the country east of the Rockies next week. However, my confidence is beginning to increase that at least here in North Florida, we may see a possibility of morning freezes again early next week for the first time since Dec 24, 2012, almost one month ago.

Maybe we can salvage at least one good visit from Old Man Winter this season before it ends. Just have had a total of five days of 32 degrees or lower this Fall/Winter 2012-13 season to this point.

[NDG]

IMO, is probably just going to be nothing more than what we have seen already this winter, mid to upper 20s in north FL, upper 20s for the usual cold unsheltered areas of central FL, low to mid 30s for the rest of interior central FL, upper 30s to 40s in S FL.
Today's 12z Euro run backed up a little from yesterday's run, but we will probably not exactly how cold is going to get early next week until later this week, the good news is that the NAO is not crashing and that the sun angle is higher with not much snow cover north of FL otherwise I would had been worried of a pretty good significant freeze for central FL.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NDG I agree with you there. I don't foresee any extreme cold right now for the state. There may be some morning freezes for what you descrbed above potentially next week for my area in the northern peninsula. Still a week or so from the event, so will monitor closely.

[gsytch]

I'm not seeing anything that cold coming down here except for some radiational cooling. The GOM is almost at 70F so dont forget about that influence, either. Definitely a change to below normal, but seasonally so looks like the call unless that low wraps up more intensely. After almost 2 weeks of EVERY day 80+ we don't need a freeze!

[FireRat]

I agree with many here,

A widespread freeze seems unlikely at this point, especially in Central and Southern Florida. Like some of you mention, the normally cooler parts of Central Florida might dip below 32 degs, and southern Florida should be in the high 30s to 40s range for lows.

concerning south florida, it might be like most usual cool episodes where, on the chilliest nights, areas as far south as the inland sections of Collier,Broward, Hendry and Palm Beach counties could see lows between 35 and 40 degrees, middle 40s for the metro areas of Broward and Palm Beach, as well as Naples, and Near 50 for the immediate Miami area. Let's see how the pattern unfolds, finally some excitement!

However, lets hope for no freezes!

[NDG]

Lol, as expected the models have really backed away with the picture they were painting a couple of days ago, the GFS was showing upper 20s all over central FL on yesterday's 12z run, today it barely shows upper 30s getting down to Ocala for next Wednesday morning.
Thanks to the NAO not crashing.

[boca]

Like I thought most of the cold air is going to stay North and east of south Florida because the Nao is barley going negative.I got excited about an arctic fromt invading Florida but this winter is going to be real tough the way the pattern is like.Its acting like a La nina pattern,warm and dry.

[Patrick99]

Like I thought most of the cold air is going to stay North and east of south Florida because the Nao is barley going negative.I got excited about an arctic fromt invading Florida but this winter is going to be real tough the way the pattern is like.Its acting like a La nina pattern,warm and dry.

Agree. It'll be a nice little cold shot for N Florida, probably, but the severity will taper off the further south you go. I bet the cool air is just going to "bleed" south for a couple days, then back to normal (which will be nice, considering we've been above normal for most of December and January). It's not going to be any kind of sustained "arctic blast." More like a garden variety January cool shot, I'm thinking.

[Sanibel]

Chilly 66* but quick warm-up to 78* tomorrow. A glancer.


The GOM WV satellite is doing a weird thing. It is showing jet contrail lines in the vaporous stationary border.

[NDG]

Interesting how during the day Miami was as cool as parts of central FL with eastern coastal FL warmer than Miami because the moderating easterly winds off the Atlantic was in effect across this area while Miami's winds stayed mostly offshore during the day.

[psyclone]

the 8-14 day outlook is calling for above normal temps to return to the southeast.