Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

Looks like the Siberian Express tracks are being laid down....toot toot!! You don't see a 8-10 day 500 mb mean height map quite like this every winter

[GaryHughes]

Looks like the Siberian Express tracks are being laid down....toot toot!! You don't see a 8-10 day 500 mb mean height map quite like this every winter

Time to get the firewood stocked up, looking as though we will all need it sooner than later!

[Ntxw]

Looks like the Siberian Express tracks are being laid down....toot toot!! You don't see a 8-10 day 500 mb mean height map quite like this every winter

You don't see a map like that any winter . As I said early last week, even in the whacky modelling world, the set up they were putting up was wild. Fact is stranger than fiction (their la la lands). The potential was set up (no extreme cold shown then) and we're slowly seeing the reflections to it

[Rgv20]

Just for fun 12zGFS 11-15 days 850mb Temperature Anomalies...

[Ntxw]

Not getting a lot of attention, the California valley growers are threatened this weekend with the cold snap over the west. May frost into the Napa Valley near San Francisco and hard freezes into Sacramento. Will Texas' rio grande and Florida's citrus industries be next?

[GaryHughes]

That would be very bad on the the growers in the State of Texas! Especially after the kind of drought they have already endured.

[vbhoutex]

It's sure looking like the EPAC ridge will break down in 5-7 days. For ease of use, look at the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and even NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Looks like the ridge breaks down, and late some strong high pressure builds across Alaska, into western Canada, and starts heading south towards the upper plains/great lakes.

I wouldn't say it's breaking down. The final element needed for McFarland's signature is cross polar flow and the NE Epac ridge to connect with the Arctic ridge (high). Look at 500mb rather than 850. The high connects into the Arctic and the -AO tank takes over bringing the Arctic high down, the two merge and heads down the spine of the rockies

Which normally brings extreme cold straight down in to Texas presuming what it is tapping into is extremely cold also.
Still not about to lay down a call on this yet, but all the signs are hard to ignore.

[dhweather]

FTW AFD

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE NAM WHICH
EARLIER HAD INDICATED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NOW KEEPS IT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS DRY WHILE THE CMC AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS BUT NOT MENTIONED ANY
PRECIPITATION. NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN THE OUTLIER NO LONGER
BRINGS THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

[dhweather]

Not getting a lot of attention, the California valley growers are threatened this weekend with the cold snap over the west. May frost into the Napa Valley near San Francisco and hard freezes into Sacramento. Will Texas' rio grande and Florida's citrus industries be next?

http://i46.tinypic.com/15y7io4.png

Crops were devastated by drought over much of the country last year, Now if hard freezes happen in CA and FL, that's going to make high food prices even higher.

[Ntxw]

We still have no consistency for Thursday. GFS went open trough and dry and 18z goes closed and wet, every run is complete 180. Euro has not been that good either it's now closing it off better. I can honestly say I am clueless to what will happen for that time. It makes a very big difference for precip chance and type

[Portastorm]

We still have no consistency for Thursday. GFS went open trough and dry and 18z goes closed and wet, every run is complete 180. Euro has not been that good either it's now closing it off better. I can honestly say I am clueless to what will happen for that time. It makes a very big difference for precip chance and type

The 18z GFS run would provide a wintry mix for Austin and the Portastorm Weather Center!

Meh, I'm still banking on this week being on the cold and dry side. If by some crazy chance the 18z is on to something, all the better.

Meanwhile, there is a growing crescendo of voices from pro mets on various online forums and social media who say the Arctic hounds will come howling for many of us in the CONUS in about 10 days.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile, there is a growing crescendo of voices from pro mets on various online forums and social media who say the Arctic hounds will come howling for many of us in the CONUS in about 10 days.

Glad they are deciding to join the party! IF it does pan out we can say storm2k was amongst the first to get the party started two weeks ago with the Stratospheric warming idea

[GaryHughes]

18z Gfs has snow across North Texas on Thursday.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wow, interesting conditions here in Richardson. Thunder, lightning, and 36 degrees. Could I see the miracle the miracle that is thundersleet?

[ah1143]

Anyone here from Plano that got the same hail I just drove thru? It was either hail or really big sleet. Either way my expensive college education says it was dang sure frozen. Since I was out of the metroplex at Christmas this is the first thing I've seen fall from the sky frozen aside from the snowcone my son acidentally dropped on me last week or the boulder size hail during the summer that totaled my truck and turned my metal roof on my house into a stylish golf ball appearance.

[GaryHughes]

Anyone here from Plano that got the same hail I just drove thru? It was either hail or really big sleet. Either way my expensive college education says it was dang sure frozen. Since I was out of the metroplex at Christmas this is the first thing I've seen fall from the sky frozen aside from the snowcone my son acidentally dropped on me last week or the boulder size hail during the summer that totaled my truck and turned my metal roof on my house into a stylish golf ball appearance.

Looking at radar, it was most likely small hail.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wow, interesting conditions here in Richardson. Thunder, lightning, and 36 degrees. Could I see the miracle the miracle that is thundersleet?

YOU RANG?

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has a robust shortwave crossing on Thursday but keeps it dry, to no surprise. Longer range it has the ridge axis in the west (+PNA) instead of off the coast like 12z which brings vodka cold to the east coast

[BigB0882]

I am sure there will be tons of changes in the coming week or two before they can really latch on. It will be fun to see what really happens and which models handled this the best.

[gpsnowman]

This little rain event has caught some Dallas mets off gaurd. Some good rains have fallen unexpectedly. Strong north wind with some showers here even at midnight. Also a line of snow has developed from Wichita Falls down to almost Abilene according to WFAA radar. Maybe some flurry action overnight?
Looks like that line is moving rapidly off to the northeast.