#5 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:24 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S
128.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS REFORMED OVER 05 DEGREES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION AND, AIDED BY DIURNAL
EFFECTS, HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY. ADDITIONALLY, FORMATIVE BANDING
IS NOW APPARENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EIR ANIMATION SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE HELPING SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING
THIS SYSTEM ALBEIT AT VARYING INTENSITIES AND TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
INCREASED AND DEEPENED CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED CONTINUED FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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