Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MGC]

I remember the 73 snow event well. Got to walk to school in sleet and walked home in the snow...front came though a couple hours ago....MGC

[Countrygirl911]

i just took and copy a portion on my weather forcast for wendsday night in sw mississippiin franklin county form NOAA national weather and this is what they had to say about our weather for wendsday night

Wednesday Night Rain likely before midnight, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible


now i just wish it was all snow and not mixed with rain we still have a few days but hopefully it will be all snow and i also wish the rain we are getting now and tomorrow would change into snow but not likely but atlease we have a chance on wendsday.

[bella_may]

Well hello there

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Stormcenter]

Long and interesting discussion this afternoon out of the NWS in New Orleans, LA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...

A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG THE COAST COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IMPACTING THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM AND
MOIST AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY FORCED OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL RIDE
ALONG IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE VORT MAXIMA WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED AND HEAVIEST OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY FROM A HATTIESBURG TO
HAMMOND TO HOUMA LINE WHERE OVERALL OMEGA VALUES ARE HIGHEST. THE
RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND LESS FREQUENT TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LINE...AS OVERALL FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO DEVELOP...AS INDICATED BY THE
12Z SOUNDING. THIS STABLE LAYER OF AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED
FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN
WITH INCREASED WINDS...THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
VARIABLE...BUT EXTENDED PERIODS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THUS...DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ANY FROZEN PRECIP DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS COLD CORE
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONLY
EXPECT TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WET BULB
ZERO TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WET BULB HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500
FEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF METRO
BATON ROUGE...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS...SO ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
LIMITED. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST MODELS...THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
ON THE PROSPECT OF SEEING SOME FROZEN PRECIP...MOST LIKELY
SLEET...DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE LESS OVERALL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THUS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SLEET IMPACTING THE AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND OVERALL
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SLEET OR SNOW DEVELOP...HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. SKIES
WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR...AND EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL
OFF DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. LOWS WILL
COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FARTHER SOUTH.
FORTUNATELY...THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO MODERATE A BIT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY AND FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AS A STRONG POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER THE HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA. SOME TELECONNECTIONS WITH A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
OVER SIBERIA AND FAR NORTHERN CANADA WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC AIR TO
ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER 40S SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL EVEN FURTHER ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

[bella_may]

After disappearing in the 18z, the possible snow event is back. Hopefully this is a trend!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Countrygirl911]

we have snow in ourforcast in sw mississippi for thursday hope this pands out would be great

[bella_may]

Anyone know when the next gfs runs?

[bella_may]

we have snow in ourforcast in sw mississippi for thursday hope this pands out would be great

The weather channel is forecasting snow showers thursday morning for almost all of Mississippi. I cant believe more people aren't talking about this event.

[bella_may]

we have snow in ourforcast in sw mississippi for thursday hope this pands out would be great

The weather channel is forecasting snow showers thursday morning for almost all of Mississippi. I cant believe more people aren't talking about this event.

[Lane]

I am too bella, I hope it keeps trending south and east.

[bella_may]

Well the gfs run was no good unless you live in northern Louisiana. Maybe the 18z will be better.

[bella_may]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE SERIES OF WAVES LIFTING INTO OUR AREA IN SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM THE BOTTOM UP
TONIGHT BUT SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. YET ANOTHER SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ICE STORM WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND WILL BE
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE MADISON...FRANKLIN
AND RICHLAND PARISHES IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL WET BULB
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ADDITIONAL TOTALS FROM
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE GENERAL
WARNING AREA SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM A LITTLE
FROM THE EAST BY NOON. ALTHOUGH THE ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN RISK
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARNED AREA WRN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNFLOWER INTO ISSAQUENA COUNTY AND
RICHLAND PARISH AND POINTS WWD...WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION TODAY...THIS BEING THE AREA WHERE THE
TONGUE OF COOLER SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HEALTHY VERTICAL MOTION.

WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO. THE ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HIGHER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
FLOODING AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR TODAY. PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH WILL ATTEMPT TO CATCH THE
INTERSECTION OF AREAS PAINTED IN THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
REGION OF HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...THAT GENERAL LOCATION BEING ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.

OVERALL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE
ICE STORM WARNING...INCLUDING THE METRO AREA...WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PATCHES
OF ICE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH BY NOON TO REDUCE THE RISK OF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH GENERAL CONDITIONS AGAIN LOOK SLIGHTLY TOO
WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...A FEW PATCHES ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WET BULB READINGS COOL TO NEAR
FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE PRECIP IS ONGOING. WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FOR
TONIGHT IN THE HWO FOR THESE FRINGE AREAS WITH NO ADVISORY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER A SLIGHT SWD SHIFT IN THE DRIER AIR PUSH WILL WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...OF PARTICULAR QUESTION BEING THE AREA FROM TENSAS PARISH
NEWD INTO VICKSBURG AND ACROSS TO THE METRO AREA AND POSSIBLY INTO
ATTALA. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPS TO COOL AROUND FREEZING AS FAR TO THE SW AS CONCORDIA
PARISH AND ADAMS COUNTY BY 12Z WED.

HAVE INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SWRN
ZONES AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SOMEWHAT OVER WRN ZONES FOR
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE MAV MOS GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MOST
FOCUS IN THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AS THE
WET STRETCH COMES TO A THANKFUL END. THEREAFTER COOL AND LIKELY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A
STOUT COLD FRONT (DELIVERING FORTUNATELY LITTLE TO NO PRECIP) TO
PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING
EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A PHASED CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FETCH TO GET DEGRADED AND PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT FOCUSED LIFT ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW (AND ESPECIALLY ITS DEFORMATION ZONE) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD BE TOO WARM MUCH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER TO
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN RAIN...BUT THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST A WET RAIN/SNOW MIX TAKING SHAPE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE LOW CENTER
(DUE TO COOLING OF TEMPS ALOFT AND A NON-NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNT OF
DIABATIC COOLING). I HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SNOW
MIXING IN WITH RAIN IN THIS PERIOD IN ALL AREAS...BUT ENDEAVORED TO
HIT THE POTENTIAL HARDEST IN EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS. BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING
IN THESE AREAS AND REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT WHAT EXACTLY WILL
UNFOLD...I FELT IT WAS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ACCUMULATION
POSSIBILITIES. WILL MENTION RISK IN THE HWO AND WE WILL BE
MONITORING THIS COMING SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE LATEST) THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
OFF TO THE EAST AND SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH I DID LIMIT HIGHS IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS TO THE MID 40S (WHICH IS A CUT FROM GFS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE). MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD MAKE FOR
COLD CONDITIONS COME FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE
20S ALL AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD FIND A MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...LIKELY DRIVING AT
LEAST ONE WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. DEEP FLOW FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WORRY ABOUT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
RELATIVELY MINIMAL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TIME RANGE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...AND I PRETTY MUCH REMAINED
RIGHT WITH GFS-BASED MEX STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD.

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLIPPER-TYPE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SPURRED BY
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING POLAR VORTEX BREAKDOWN (WHICH OCCURRED SOME 5
DAYS AGO). THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT DEFINITELY HAS A
SHOT AT BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEX GUIDANCE IS TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT IS HAMPERED BY RELIANCE ON CLIMO THAT FAR OUT.
THEREFORE I GENERALLY CUT TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YET FULLY REPRESENT HOW COLD IT MIGHT GET
DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A BIG CONCERN AGAIN TODAY FOR GLH
AND GWO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES CAUSING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR GLH/GWO TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. /EC/03

&&

[bella_may]

Anyone know where I can find the Euro model?

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone know where I can find the Euro model?

Here you go: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html or http://classic.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone know when the next gfs runs?

It runs 4 times a day: 0z/12z runs update around 11pm/11am eastern time, 6z/18z runs update around 5am/5pm eastern time.

[MississippiWx]

This is 48 hours out and this looks to be the strongest/coldest run of the Euro for the upper low. Does anyone have a precip map for this time frame?http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif

[bella_may]

Anyone know where I can find the Euro model?

Here you go: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html or http://classic.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Thank you!

[South Texas Storms]

This is 48 hours out and this looks to be the strongest/coldest run of the Euro for the upper low. Does anyone have a precip map for this time frame?http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif

http://classic.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Click on ECMWF for the model run.

[bella_may]

This is 48 hours out and this looks to be the strongest/coldest run of the Euro for the upper low. Does anyone have a precip map for this time frame?http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif

http://classic.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Click on ECMWF for the model run.

I still dont see ECMWF?

[bella_may]

Nevermind I found it lol