Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Somebodies down there are praying a little too much


So where oh where is that -30 heading?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

((((Texans)))) now I see, after looking at the Deep South thread, why you fellows seem to be so down today.

I really do wish I could transport what is heading my way to you. We are beyond sick and tired of the stuff.

[orangeblood]

Latest AO forecast = NOT GOOD!!!

[Ntxw]

Latest AO forecast = NOT GOOD!!!

Don't trust them. AO will tank end of the month, bank it. I don't know about cold but every +AO forecast from models the entire winter have failed miserably. Last week they had this week being 2-3 sd's above normal especially GFS

GWO and AAM are rising, will not support a +AO

[knoxtnhorn]

For what it's worth...and I know it's not much....

I am sitting at home in Knoxville, TN after schools were closed early due to snow. Right now we have about 3 inches on the ground and it's still coming down pretty good. Temp tonight is supposed to be mid-20's so it looks as if we'll get another day off of school.

Point being? We had no models that predicted this - that I'm aware of. I frequent this and the "Deep South" thread every day as well as look at models AND watch the local weather. I heard one snippet about a possible mix on Friday afternoon and that was it. Out of the blue yesterday morning (Wed.) I started hearing rumors about snow. This morning I woke up and found everyone talking about the big snow event. I, seriously, did not see any forecast predicting any kind of snow earlier than about 36 hours before the actual event. As a matter of fact, I was pretty pissed that I saw Texarkanna folks talking about the possibility of some freezing stuff 3 nights ago.

I know we obsess over these models day in and day out but they often let us down. There is still a long way to go this winter. Don't give up hope and don't live and die by the long range forecast. There's always hope.

[orangeblood]

Latest AO forecast = NOT GOOD!!!

Don't trust them. AO will tank end of the month, bank it. I don't know about cold but every +AO forecast from models the entire winter have failed miserably. Last week they had this week being 2-3 sd's above normal especially GFS

GWO and AAM are rising, will not support a +AO

Although I see what you're getting at, the models also had the AO tanking to 3-4 sd's below normal a few days ago and it's now been rising and barely below neutral. Bottom line is the models don't have a clue and I don't either....I'm glad you feel much more confident about this upcoming winter period than I do!!

[Ntxw]

Although I see what you're getting at, the models also had the AO tanking to 3 sd's below normal a few days ago and it's now been rising and barely below neutral. Bottom line is the models don't have a clue and I don't either....I'm glad you feel much more confident about this upcoming winter period than I do!!

I'm not confident at all about sensible weather with bad modelling. I just know the models overdo the AO forecasts, especially popping it positive this winter (they sometimes go overboard negative as well as you mention). You just can't have a +AO regime without a cold strat vortex over the pole which essentially is gone, transient weak +AO are possibly like the one we had early this month due to storms in the NPAC like the big one now lowering heights over Alaska, more like a mask.

Have you looked at the AO/NAO stuff off weatherbell? Ryan Maue I think does a great job putting the biases/analysis

[Portastorm]

Latest AO forecast = NOT GOOD!!!

orangeblood, you have been a steady and admirable colleague of the PWC ... don't lose the faith just because we have a 7-10 day period of winter "doldrums." There will be more action on the way. Keep the faith!

I believe our window of opportunities will re-open in about 10 days.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't know why, but it seems like our snow events here in central Texas have occurred in February the last few times. Maybe it will happen again this February. I'm thinking we will have at least one chance of snow here next month.

[Texas Snowman]

For you Houston area folks, sad news in the weather world:

http://blog.chron.com/sportsmedia/2013/ ... rown-dies/

[Palmer divide shadow]

Wow how sad.Rip.I remember always watching him or Mario Gomez in the am as a kid.

[Tejas89]

Just returned from Chicago. Wow there is no snow cover between Dallas and there. They are complaining about the lack of snow the last two winters.

http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/20 ... r-of-snow/

[HockeyTx82]

Found this little video online today. Thought it was pretty cool. He even manages to get the sponsor in!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 3e0s02sYSc

On a side note the girl anchor I grew up with. She lived down the street from me. Caught me off guard.

[weatherdude1108]

That is funny!

He did a great job! Good drawings!
Silly computers.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking ahead again (you knew it was coming ) Jan 28th-Feb 2nd ish, look for a potential major system. It should be associated with Arctic front number 2. Could be a phaser with a baja low and incoming low from Alaska and building heights behind it. Keep that in the back of our minds.

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours. This would make it one of the most rapidly developing storms of all time if it were to verify. Now models still aren't sure where this storm will end up but some have it arriving on the west coast in about 10 days. Something to follow over the next 7-10 days to fit your forecast Ntxw....

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imgup ... sregg7.gif

I noticed the chatter on this potential storm stopped. Just curious on any new updates with it, or if it's even there anymore(?). Is this the same storm that is now south of Alaska and way off the coast of the Pacific NW?

[wxman57]

Looking ahead again (you knew it was coming ) Jan 28th-Feb 2nd ish, look for a potential major system. It should be associated with Arctic front number 2. Could be a phaser with a baja low and incoming low from Alaska and building heights behind it. Keep that in the back of our minds.

Well that would fit the time frame when this monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific would arrive on the west coast....this storm according to the GFS will bomb out and deepen to around 932 mb over the next 24 hours. This would make it one of the most rapidly developing storms of all time if it were to verify. Now models still aren't sure where this storm will end up but some have it arriving on the west coast in about 10 days. Something to follow over the next 7-10 days to fit your forecast Ntxw....

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imgup ... sregg7.gif

I noticed the chatter on this potential storm stopped. Just curious on any new updates with it, or if it's even there anymore(?). Is this the same storm that is now south of Alaska and way off the coast of the Pacific NW?

That low is filling fast and located just east of the southern tip of the Kamchatkan peninsula. It's moving westward toward the Sea of okhotsk.

[rkbjunior]

Larry Cosgrove gives us a tease at the end of his discussion.

http://www.examiner.com/article/weekend-weather-forecast-for-houston-texas-and-vicinity-friday-01-18-2013

[wxman57]

Larry Cosgrove gives us a tease at the end of his discussion.

http://www.examiner.com/article/weekend-weather-forecast-for-houston-texas-and-vicinity-friday-01-18-2013

I'll give you a tease - just 41 more days until SPRING! And summer is right around the corner.

On a more somber note, February is often the snowiest month in Houston.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was looking at old maps last night just to compare things with the possible outbreak at the end of the month, http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ , and 1985 does seem to have many comparisons with what some of the models were seeing but again, the big chunk of cold was well east. After looking at some of the cold analogs from 1989 and 1983, i dont see how it could get much colder than those years. Geez.

[orangeblood]

Latest AO forecast = NOT GOOD!!!

orangeblood, you have been a steady and admirable colleague of the PWC ... don't lose the faith just because we have a 7-10 day period of winter "doldrums." There will be more action on the way. Keep the faith!

I believe our window of opportunities will re-open in about 10 days.

Faith is not lost in some sort of cold/stormy period coming up but the potential for the extreme we were discussing last week seems to be off the table. Just looked at the Euro Weeklies and it shows the heart of the cold continuing to blast the Northeast US with the southern plains receiving glancing blows if any....very progressive pattern coming up. But there is much more southern stream action just no arctic air involved.

As wxman57 mentioned, the clock on winter is ticking!!