Texas Winter 2012-2013

[vbhoutex]

Hmmmmmmm....

"THERE WILL AND STILL IS TREMENDOUS VOLATILITY JUST ABOVE
THE CONDITIONALLY-UNSTABLE LOW-LAYER DRY/VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS. BUT LIKEWISE...ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC DRAPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE REGIONS WILL BE FIRST TO
INTERACT WITH THE PACIFIC FLOW EMANATING FROM BOTH STREAMS..."

What this means, if I understand correctly, is that there will be significant potential for very strong low pressure systems to develop in the zone of baroclinic instability (i.e. where the warmer and colder airmasses meet). And that would be in a "U shape" from along the front range of the Rockies down into the Southern Plains and back up northeast. As we have seen references to here and on other forums, we may be looking at a storm like what we saw around Christmas time. Snow and ice to the north and heavy thunderstorms to the south.

Also ... anyone see the end of the 12z Euro run? Looks pretty cold and stormy to me for us in Texas.

I must be missing something or not looking at the right map. Can you enlighten me? I guess if one is talking N TX I see it.

[Ntxw]

I must be missing something or not looking at the right map. Can you enlighten me? I guess if one is talking N TX I see it.

I think Portastorm was saying the pattern resembles the block around Christmas. High pressure over Hudson Bay and Eastern Canada, models are notorious for sending storms into blocks which never happens. Likelihood of a big system going south is favorable per that run and not progressive.

[Snowman67]

Weatherman 57 - how's this look for bike riding?

http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/

[Tejas89]

^
|
|

In soviet Russia, snow forecasts you..

[Ntxw]

NOAA is planning on sending flights to get data from the Pacific. Perhaps this will get some much needed information to get better agreement from models as these systems will potentially play a huge role in disruptive weather across the US by the end of the month.

***
NOUS42 KNHC 191849
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST SAT 19 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JANUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-050

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 21/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03WSC TRACK52
C. 20/1930Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 21/0600Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE
P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000Z

$$
SEF

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[orangeblood]

Just looking at the teleconnection forecasts, I don't see any sort of pattern locking in...the EPO, NAO, and PNA all seem to be oscillating from negative to positive every 4-5 days. The period coming up over the next 10-14 days looks extremely progressive in nature. Hopefully, the MJO slows down once it gets in Phase 8,1 but if not any sort of cold/stormy pattern looks to be very transient. Does anyone see any indication that the MJO will slow down once it gets into the favorable phases ??

[orangeblood]

Decent run by the GFS tonight, the influence of the MJO showing up

[wxman57]

I'm liking the look of the long-range Euro 500mb pattern for late this month. Nice ridge building over the Rockies and slowly drifting east to include Texas. That would mean lots of sunshine and temps not nearly as cold as this week has been. Unfortunately, no temps near 80 degrees yet. This is not atypical of mid to late January (the January thaw). While it's possible the predicted pattern for late January could carry through much of February, it's also possible that it's only a brief respite from the southern stream storm track.

Meanwhile, the wife & I will bundle up and hit the bike trail this weekend. Temps only into the mid 60s means tights and long sleeve thermal jerseys (and a hat and full finger gloves), but it'll seem warm compared to the past few days.

Sounds like you'll be dressed more appropriately for a January day at Lambeau Field rather than a bike ride in Houston...

It was leg warmers, thermal long-sleeve jersey and headband (for ears) on Saturday, no headband on Sunday. Wasn't too bad until a few clouds popped up around 2-3pm. One tiny cloud in front of the sun makes it feel MUCH colder. Rode 45 miles Sat and only 36 on Sunday. Too many clouds made it almost uncomfortably cold even with the winter wear. Remember, we're out biking for 4-5 hours at a time. Can't wear shorts/short sleeve for that length of time with the wind chill from riding 15-20 mph and wet skin from sweating.

Long-range Euro has 850mb temps of 17-18C across east TX late this month, with surface temps up into the mid 70s. No significant cold across Texas for the next 10 days. GFS indicates a slight pattern change beyond 10 days which could bring down more Canadian air. But, of course, we can't trust it that far out so it's probably wrong.

[Stormcenter]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

[wxman57]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

Only if it says "cold and snow for Texas"?

[Portastorm]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

A rhetorical question no doubt, Stormcenter.

But the answer is "yes you can!" The PWC Model forecasts snow every week for Texas during the winter months. That's the good news. The bad news is that our skill scores are a bit low.

Enjoy the week ahead, Wxman57. I believe an abrupt end to your cycling days will happen in a little more than a week.

[Stormcenter]

Now that was funny.

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

Only if it says "cold and snow for Texas"?

[wxman57]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

A rhetorical question no doubt, Stormcenter.

But the answer is "yes you can!" The PWC Model forecasts snow every week for Texas during the winter months. That's the good news. The bad news is that our skill scores are a bit low.

Enjoy the week ahead, Wxman57. I believe an abrupt end to your cycling days will happen in a little more than a week.

On the contrary, I'm expecting mid 70s for at least the start of next week. Even the euro is indicating some quite warm temps across Texas in late January. 6Z GFS has Houston lows in the upper 60s to start next week:

[Portastorm]

Oh come now, we both know the folly of expecting a 7-day forecast from a 6z GFS operational run to come true. You take a look at the ensembles (GFS, Euro, and GGEM) around Jan. 30th and tell me you expect to see 70s in Houston.

[wxman57]

Oh come now, we both know the folly of expecting a 7-day forecast from a 6z GFS operational run to come true. You take a look at the ensembles (GFS, Euro, and GGEM) around Jan. 30th and tell me you expect to see 70s in Houston.

I can dream, can't I? Besides, the Euro agrees and is even warmer than the GFS next week (early). Unfortunately the 12Z GFS took away any chance of biking next weekend. Maybe I can get out for a quick 20 miles after work on Thursday.



The extended range GFS isn't too cold (not what I'd consider warm, either). Remember, those are not highs/lows plotted but 6am and 6pm temps. The morning low may be a degree or two colder while the afternoon high could be 3-5 degrees warmer.

[dhweather]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

Only if it says "cold and snow for Texas"?

OR - Cat 5 in the Gulf.

[vbhoutex]

Can you really trust any model 10 days out?

Only if it says "cold and snow for Texas"?

OR - Cat 5 in the Gulf.

I was wondering who was going to come in with that one!!!

[Ntxw]

No question the MJO is and will be driving all things weather. When you have a wave this strong that began early January it's going to overwhelm most other signals. It will come around, and it will come around hard when it does. Explains the ups and downs of teleconnections, models try to pick out which to use but it's the tropics that controls.

[Portastorm]

Wow! That is a very impressive Phase 8 of the MJO, isn't it? At that strength Ntxw, you're absolutely right that it will overwhelm the other signals. The 8-1-2 octants of the MJO if folks will recall provide above normal precip and below normal temps to much of Texas, generally speaking.

If the MJO behaves as forecast here, look for another split-flow regime to develop across the USA with an active southern stream. Well, at the least, we should get much-needed precipitation even if it is in the form of rainfall.

[wxman57]

Wow! That is a very impressive Phase 8 of the MJO, isn't it? At that strength Ntxw, you're absolutely right that it will overwhelm the other signals. The 8-1-2 octants of the MJO if folks will recall provide above normal precip and below normal temps to much of Texas, generally speaking.

If the MJO behaves as forecast here, look for another split-flow regime to develop across the USA with an active southern stream. Well, at the least, we should get much-needed precipitation even if it is in the form of rainfall.

Of course, that MJO long-range forecast is made by the same model that many have said can't be trusted even out to next week - the GFS. If you can't believe it as far as next week's general warmth in Texas, you can't believe it's MJO forecast.