ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

La Niña seems to be winning, by far.

[Cyclenall]

La Niña seems to be winning, by far.

A New Year's gift to me at least when all other factors are not so fondly looked upon ie: cold, snowless weather . Is the cold starting to accelerate now in the Pacific because it needs to speed up. Did the weekly numbers not come out today because its New Year's eve?

EDIT: New numbers did come out today but nothing interesting...instead some regions showed the opposite of what I expected...must be old data or something.

[Ntxw]

EDIT: New numbers did come out today but nothing interesting...instead some regions showed the opposite of what I expected...must be old data or something.

It's the OISST data. Just like when it was hot and nothing came of it, it's doing the same with cold. I suppose that's why we didn't see reflect.

TAO, no drastic changes

[dexterlabio]

I found this article about the things to expect in 2013, and it says something about a major El Nino event. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21628965.300-2013-smart-guide-arctic-melt-will-spark-weird-weather.html As far as I know, there were no official ENSO predictions yet for this year that tell something about El Nino.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's very clear which ENSO phase is winning.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/7/13 update

In general,ENSO cooled a bit more. Is down from the -0.1C that was on last week's update to -0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center January update

Neutral ENSO thru the Spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 January 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during December 2012. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were positive in the western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific, and slightly negative in much of the eastern Pacific (Fig 1). This SST anomaly pattern is also reflected in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) in the equatorial Pacific became slightly below average (Fig. 3), with positive sub-surface temperature anomalies west of 165oW and stronger negative anomalies in the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Upper- and lower-level zonal winds were near average across the tropical Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation Index was slightly negative. Also, convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over western Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric features indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.

Model predictions favor near-average SST in the Niño-3.4 region from the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 into summer 2013 (Fig. 6). Because predictions through the April-June season are known to be less skillful, the forecasts for the summer carry limited confidence at this time. Thus, it is considered unlikely that an El Niño or La Niña will develop during the next several months, and ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[cycloneye]

What a big swing upwards by the SOI in the past few days from plunging to almost -10 now is up to -2.8.All indications right now are that the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season and EPAC season will be influenced by either Neutral or La Nina conditions but is still very early to be certain on that.

[cycloneye]

The early January update of the probabilities of ENSO for ASO shows that the gap between Neutral and El Nino shrinks a little bit with Neutral dominating but the % of El Nino goes up a little. Is still early in the game and forecasting ENSO on long range is a challenge so stay tuned to this thread as all information about how ENSO is doing will be posted so you will not miss anything.

[Ntxw]

There is a major oceanic Kelvin wave coupled with a strong MJO about to come through the Pacific. This should last for about 20-45 days. We may see cooling on the next update reflecting last week but La Nina will have to wait until the couplet passes as westerlies will be strong to resume cooling.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/14/13 update

The Pacific continues to get colder especially the Nino 3 and 3.4 ones. Last week Nino 3.4 was at -0.3C and in this week's update is down to La Nina threshold at -0.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's the mid-January ENSO predictions. Even these are a bit too warm considering anomalies are under -0.5C now.

[cycloneye]

The probability of La Nina dominating the Pacific on the Mid January update on ASO is 27%,Neutral is at 55% and El Nino at 19%.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[cycloneye]

Hi Ntxw. Do you think that the MJO wave that is now occuring may have a big impact on ENSO by warming a good deal Nino 3.4 or nothing of significance occurs? By the way, the CPC update normally released on Mondays will be this week on Tuesday because of MLK holiday.

[Ntxw]

Hi Ntxw. Do you think that the MJO wave that is now occuring may have a big impact on ENSO by warming a good deal Nino 3.4 or nothing of significance occurs? By the way, the CPC update normally released on Mondays will be this week on Tuesday because of MLK holiday.

That is a very good question! I'm not sure what true significance the MJO has on enso during the winter, things are much more stable than the Fall/Spring when changes occur. I don't think the current MJO is enough to start warming but it may delay some cooling in the short term. The PDO has been steadily rising and SOI is as neutral as it's ever been so I don't think La Nina or El Nino will have much of a chance until a few more months. We probably won't get enough for either big enso events (5+ trimonthlies) so the start/mid of hurricane season more or less will lean neutral. The enso update centered on Wednesday of last week had it staying about the same of -0.6.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/22/13 update

No change for the past two weeks at Nino 3.4 as it remained at -0.6C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The January update of the Eurosip is in Neutral status thru early Summer but trends warmer by that time while the NCEP CFSv2 model trends warmer at a slower pace reaching El Nino by October.But the long range forecasts for ENSO always are not the best thing to say is a given. Let's see how things stand in the next 2-3 months.

[Ntxw]

Here's what the sub-surface currently looks like

[cycloneye]

The ESPI has trended upwards in the past few days.Ntxw, what do you make of this?





http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Ntxw]

The ESPI has trended upwards in the past few days.Ntxw, what do you make of this?

GWO/MJO is waking up the subtropical jet so makes sense. Tao/triton has shown some weakening of the cool anomalies through this week as well as expansion of the sub-surface warm pool. I will be interested to see if enso regions reflect it on Monday.

If anyone wants to follow GWO it seems to be a good indicator of the wind patterns (much like SOI) for what's next. High AAM 5/6/7/8 favor westerlies(warming) and low AAM 1/2/3/4 favor easterlies(cooling)



http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif