Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

January 22 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:56 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 6:01 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 6:02 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

The dry season is starting in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY AS
LEAST THROUGH 230 PM AST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE WHICH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY STABLE...AND DRY...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES OR
LESS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE NOT
EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS NO OTHER WEATHER FEATURE ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT SW PUERTO RICO BTWN
22/18-2302Z WHEN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS DUE
TO CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS ENE 5-15 KTS UP TO 6 KFT AND
20-25 KT UP TO 10 KFT AND 10-15 KTS 10-20 KFT. MAX WIND WEST NR 55
KT AT 42 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 72 82 / 30 20 10 10
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 20 20 20


&&

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JAN 22/00UTC: BROAD POLAR TROUGH DOMINATES
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN/GULF OF MEXICO...AND
A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA. THROUGH 36-42 HRS THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE TRAILING TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN. IT IS TO THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. LATER IN THE
CYCLE...A SECONDARY FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS TO THEN MERGE WITH/REINFORCE
THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE SHEAR LINE...MEANWHILE...IS TO MEANDER EAST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA BY 30-36 HRS...WHERE IT IS
TO THEN REMAIN THROUGH 54-60 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO
WEAKEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
OVER THE NORTHWEST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA THE MEANDERING FRONT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM LATER IN
THE CYCLE. ACROSS HISPANIOLA THE SHEAR LINE WILL SUSTAIN
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 48
HRS...AND 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM AT 48-84 HRS. OVER
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA IT IS TO THEN RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THROUGH 72 HRS EXPECTING A SLIGHT
INCREASE...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS INITIALIZED OVER THE
GULF/MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS TO QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE YUCATAN AS
ANOTHER DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LATTER PROPAGATES
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAMPECHE SOUND BY 54-60 HRS...AND
SETTLES ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HRS.
THIS WILL BRING CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FURTHERMORE...A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA IS TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS MEXICO...WITH ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO
PROVIDE VENTILATION ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS-BELIZE/
GUATEMALA ON DAY 02 AND EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS ON DAYS
03-04. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ACROSS BELIZE-QUINTANA ROO IN
THE YUCATAN AND GUATEMALA-NORTHERN HONDURAS THIS IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH
36 HRS. THROUGH 72-84 HRS THIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR TO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY.

AS THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA-WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS IS FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO REPOSITION TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH TO THE WEST (OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN) AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST (CENTRAL
ATLANTIC)...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL. THIS FLOW IS CONVERGING
JUST WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH CLOUD CLUSTERS/MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. BUT THIS IS
GOING TO BE SHORT LASTING...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADES TO RETURN TO THE BASIN THROUGH 48-60 HRS.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS IS
TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY.

THE EVOLVING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HAS ALLOWED THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ TO MEANDER NORTH OF
ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MEANDERING
INTO THE EJE CAFETERO IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. THIS IS ENHANCING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. THROUGH 72-84
HRS THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER THE
ATLANTIC...THE ITCZ IS CLOSER TO ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...
WITH ACTIVITY LIMITING TO EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA/AMAZON RIVER
DELTA. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST WED JAN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALONG WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HELP INDUCE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK
CONVERGENCE MOISTURE BANDS BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE
LATER REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSITURE CONVERGENCE BANDS BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME
AREAS MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ISOLATED SPOTS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN THE PREVAILING STEERING FLOW...EXPECT
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL AND NOT WIDESPREAD. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS A FEW
SHOWERS MAY FORM ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND QUICKLY STREAM
WESTWARD OUT TO THE COASTAL WATERS LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL OVER THE ISLANDS. LONG TERM WISE...EXPECT MORE OR LESS
THE SAME TREND TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES BEING THE DRIVING FORCE OF PASSING SHOWERS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LCL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...FEW ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ACROSS
TJSJ...TJNR AND TJPS UNTIL 23/12Z. MOSTLY FAIR WX SKIES WILL ENCOMPASS
THE FLYING AREA FM 23/14Z-24/00Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS
IN ERN INTERIOR OR PR AFT 23/16Z DUE TO FEW PASSING SHRA...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT TAF SITES. TJSJ 23/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP
TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY
AND INCR ALOFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 83 72 / 30 10 10 20
STT 85 73 84 73 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

January 23 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:57 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 6:02 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 6:03 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED JAN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING OVER THE AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS 230 PM AST...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AT SAN JUAN AIRPORT REACHED 86 DEGREES UNDER THIS
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AND
WILL SHIFT TO EAST NORTHEAST...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S...MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX. ONSHORE WINDS 12G17KT
DURING THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS OF 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KTS. A NEW GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 71 84 / 10 10 20 20
STT 73 84 73 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 AM AST THU JAN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
WILL THEREFORE HELP MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPERIC CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS INDUCING A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE MOMENT
HOWEVER EXPECT THE TRADE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. PREVAILING EASTERLIES ARE TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION THUS INCREASING THE EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
OCCASIOAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISITURE CONVERGENCE BANDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MORNIN HOURS. ACCOMPANYING THESE BANDS
ARE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
ONCE AGAIN A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES. LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIMILAR
WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL SEA
BREEZE EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. UNDER THE PREVAILING STEERING FLOW...
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO IF ANY TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FORM IF ANY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ UNTIL 24/12Z. DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AFTER 24/14Z TILL AT LEAST 25/00Z. INCREASING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 24/16Z...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR AT TAF SITES. TJSJ 24/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 71 / 30 20 20 30
STT 85 73 85 74 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

January 24 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:57 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 6:02 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 6:03 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST THU JAN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY THEN FLATTEN
TUESDAY AS CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
WANING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEPT
SKIES WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT ONLY FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH IS MAINTAINING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS TRADE WINDS BRING THESE PATCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAINS MAINLY 2-4 FT EXCEPT 5 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS.
NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING SUNDAY. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST
FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 71 82 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 30 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

EXPERTISE

The waves under high surveillance

France-Antilles Guadeloupe 24.01.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 202795.php

POPULATED COASTS. In Guadeloupe, nearly 80% of the population lives in coastal areas, where the challenge for our islands to address the risk of the swell. (D.C.-L.) The Caribbean Waves conference held this week in the throat. The best international specialists are brought together.




Since Monday, and until Saturday, the best specialists of the risks associated with the waves came together in the throat. The Conference of Caribbean Waves (waves Caribbean), they are working on the theme 'waves in the Caribbean, the wave of the tsunami swell ". Researchers are from France but also the United States, Russia, Turkey, Cuba... to discuss the vagaries of the vulnerability of coastal communities, measures taken in this or that place of the world and the establishment of warning centres.
THE HAZARDS OF FLOODING

Second of its kind organized by the UAG, the conference - which researchers associated with the representatives of large national organizations (CEA, BRGM, IPGP, Ifremer, Shom, weather-France)-is an event. Event, because it includes an update on the progress of research on risks related to the waves, which became into account that they were major. Not only because more than half of the world's population (80% in Guadeloupe) lives on the sides...

Here, where we are regularly faced with crashing waves of several meters high, we know the damage including cyclonic swells can commit. We know, however, that our researchers — including offshore (1) - work on all aspects, including historical, wave-related risks. Thus, besides they currently perform a trajectory modeling swell, surges tide and flooding that may be related - cyclonic marine flooding hazard - they have also studied the history of tsunamis in Guadeloupe, and will communicate during the conference on this subject. It should be noted, finally, BRGM, for his part, conducted a simulation of tsunami that could affect Guadeloupe, simulation results are cold in the back.

The work continues until Saturday. Particular should learn more about the tsunami warning system. The Unesco mission for the Caribbean tsunami warning took advantage of the conference to provide an update on the progress of the work in this area.

(1) Laboratory research in geosciences and energies, depending on the UAG.

-Every fifty years?

The Guadeloupe tsunami list drawn up by researchers at the University of the West Indies and Guyana contains eleven events on the period from 1690 to 2003. But according to them, only five events (1843, 1867, 1985, 1997 and 2003) can be classified as actual tsunami. The earthquakes are the main sources of tsunamis: only a tsunami seems to be due to a terrible storm that caused heavy rains. The height of the tsunami waves in the sides with infrastructure (Sainte-Rose, Derek) was of at least three metres and between three and ten meters. The risk is far from extinct: the return period of the tsunami of seismic origin in Guadeloupe can be estimated to be between 35 and 50 years old. Considering that the last seismic tsunami occurred in 1985, the likelihood of a tsunami in the near future occurrence is relatively high.
[b](*) Learn more: http://www.tsunamis.fr[/b]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST FRI JAN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUS DAYS...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA...MAINTAINING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOR THE
WEEKEND...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS TRADE WINDS BRING THESE
PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE PWAT VALUE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES IN
COMPARISON WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.0 INCH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY BY NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND USVI AT 25/06Z...AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN PR
ARND 25/09Z AND WESTERN PR AFT 25/14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR. A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND WILL BE NOTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT 25/18Z. LLVL
WINDS ENE-E 5-18 KTS UP TO 7 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN DURING THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 72 / 40 50 40 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 40 50 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A more wetter pattern will be affecting the NE Caribbean tonight and Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI JAN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ATLC OVR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN STRENGTHEN AS STRONG HIGH PRES EXITS THE
MID ATLC COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF RIGHT
ENTRACE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF PR.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT MODELS KEEP A FAIRLY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH BASE OF THE INVERSION NEAR 650 MB.
MODELS SHOW A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY TOMORROW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS IN QUITE SOMETIME. EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG SUN
FOLLOWED BY MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MON-WED AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
COLLAPSES AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT PUTTING
AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF JET
MAXIMA WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED STARTING THU AND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES
EXITS THE MID ATLC COAST AND TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT UNDER A
POSITIVE NAO PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND USVI AT 26/06Z...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN PR AROUND 26/12Z AND WESTERN PR AROUND 25/18Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEAS 6-8 FT EXPECTED. SCA`S WERE ALREADY ISSUED AND HIGH SURF
MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW. AFTER SWELLS SUBSIDE MON WINDS STRENGTHEN
MID NEXT WEEK WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ATLC COASTAL
WATERS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 70 70 10 10
STT 75 84 75 85 / 60 60 10 10

[Macrocane]

Snowfall in the high areas of western Guatemala

The people of San Marcos, Ixchiguan and Quetzaltenango in Guatemala woke up with a nice surprise as snow fell in the summits of Santa maria, Acatenango and Tajumulco volcanoes, plus frost formed in the lower elevations of those locations. Snowfall is rare in Central America and it usually happens only in Guatemala, the last time was on December 2009 in the same locations of western Guatemala.

Some pics.

[msbee]

Snowfall in the high areas of western Guatemala

The people of San Marcos, Ixchiguan and Quetzaltenango in Guatemala woke up with a nice surprise as snow fell in the summits of Santa maria, Acatenango and Tajumulco volcanoes, plus frost formed in the lower elevations of those locations. Snowfall is rare in Central America and it usually happens only in Guatemala, the last time was on December 2009 in the same locations of western Guatemala.

Some pics.

Wow, very cool!
thanks for the info and pics

[arizona_sooner]

Awesome pics of snow in central America!

We had some heavy rain in southern Trinidad last night - drove us inside from our outdoor bar where we were enjoying a beer or two...

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A cloudy and rainy Saturday is on tap for PR/VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING WEST DURING THE WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF US ON SUNDAY WITH A SECOND
SHORTER WAVE PASSING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ANGLES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FLOW RETURNING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AFTERWARD.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE TROPICAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST LONGITUDE WITH A TROUGH FORMING
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY LATE WEEK. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AND WEAK MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...BANDS OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA ON MONDAY HOVERS JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS PART OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT. AFTER WHICH BANDS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND
FLOW RESUME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CROSSED IN PRIMARILY EAST NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO LEAVING LIGHT AMOUNTS AND
WET STREETS. BY EARLY MORNING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WERE STILL
REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT SAINT MARTIN AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM INFRA
RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FAIRLY
LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL NOT PASS OUT OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE 6 PM AST TODAY. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT MOST
SHOWERS TO BE OVER FOR THE LAND AREAS BY 6 PM AST AND A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER CESSATION IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FIRST SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE
WITH THE SECOND PASSING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
POINT THE NAM INTRODUCES VERY DRY AIR...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES WITH
ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS LATTER SCENARIO OF CONTINUED SHOWERY AND SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER SEEMS TO BE A BETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.
HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES IN THE GFS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BY ABOUT 9 METERS...BUT
RECOVER MOST OF THIS BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 600 MB ALSO REACH
THEIR LOWEST LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH. ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION TO THE COOLER SCENARIO IS
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL
DUE TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AND A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 90
DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING WILL PASS OVER
PR/USVI...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS IN THEIR IMMEDIATE VCNTY THIS MORNING
THOUGH MVFR CONDS WILL BE BRIEF. DECREASING MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON
WILL REDUCE THEIR NUMBERS TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED...PERSISTING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 ESE 16-24 KT TODAY
GRADUALLY BECOMING E-ENE TONIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SPREAD INTO THE PASSAGES. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORT BREAK IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS UNTIL SEAS INCREASE AGAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASED
WINDS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 70 10 10 30
STT 83 71 85 74 / 60 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

January 26 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Expect isolated showers over eastern parishes, mostly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with scattered showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 5:59 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 6:04 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 6:05 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 261901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH THEREAFTER. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST
MON TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS SEEN ON RADAR AND VIS
IMAGERY NOW NORTH OF PUNTA CANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR A MUCH
DRIER AND SUNNIER DAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON-TUE PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SWD
CLOSER TO OUR AREA. LOCAL AREA ALSO BECOMES UNDER THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET TO HELP AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON AND
MON NIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON WITH
AREA BECOMING UNDER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET STREAK LEADING TO A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT WITH SWELLS
EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
SUN AND EVEN AFTER SWELLS SUBSIDE WINDS STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE MID ATLC AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 10 10 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory issued

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT JAN 26 2013

...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...

.NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING
WAVE ACTION.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-270315-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130128T0500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
307 PM AST SAT JAN 26 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AST MONDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AST MONDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: 6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 11 TO
14 FEET.

* TIMING: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RIP CURRENTS.
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE:

SAN JUAN: 8:15 PM AST SAT AT 0.86 FEET

ARECIBO: 8:08 PM AST SAT AT 1.01 FEET

MAGENS BAY: 9:43 AM AST SUN AT 1.04 FEET

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No changes to the variable weather pattern of some scattered showers mixed with sun that PR/VI has been thru for the past few weeks.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A JET AND SEVERAL BROAD TROUGHS WILL
BRUSH BY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS BY LATE IN
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST FROM
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY
WILL REINFORCE THIS RIDGE AND INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
SHEAR LINE THAT WILL STALL OVER THE ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RETREATING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MUCH LESS FREQUENT OVER LAND OVERNIGHT
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. AMOUNTS...WHERE RAIN FELL...WERE VERY
LIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEXT BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ENTERING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND IN PUERTO RICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND IN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THE APPROACH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND AND THE SHEAR
LINE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT. BEST DRYING APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SAY WITH
ANY CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL VAGARIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO CONT. ISOLD SHRA GIVE MOST TAF SITES AN OUTSIDE
CHC OF MVFR MAINLY DUE LWR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT
UNTIL ABOUT 27/18Z IN THE EAST. LLVL WINDS E-ENE 12-22 KT BCMG NE
TONITE/MON.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SPIKED TO 11 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND WERE 8.5 FEET
AT THE INNER BUOY 41053 AT 4 AM AST. THIS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE WAVE WATCH SUGGESTS THAT
SEAS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND THIS SEEMS
SPOT ON. SEAS WILL RE-BUILD ON TUESDAY EARLY SO THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 73 / 10 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 10 20 20 40