Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Next week may not be so nice for the northern half of Texas. Dallas may see yet the fourth wintry event and SPC has already outlined Arkansas, NE Tx for potential severe weather which this far out is impressive. All models agree on the storm, timing and behavior varies a bit.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Wxman57 .you are welcome in Colorado.Mid 70's today which is insane for Jan.No humidity. Lol, in fact the dew point is -25 with 2% humidity. We so need moisture

[orangeblood]

The trend has not been a good one and I'm trying to look for anything positive (I promise) but both the GFS and Euro Control run shows one freeze over the next 2 weeks for DFW. There is now a very good chance that we'll end up warmer than last year through the first 2 months of the winter season, which I didn't think would even be possible. Yikes !!

[DonWrk]

The great letdown of winter 2013...

[Ntxw]

There is no letdown, and it has not been a bad winter. It is 180 from 2011-2012 so please stop this nonsense of comparing the two. Just because it's not snowing in your backyard right now or 0F doesn't mean the magic already hasn't happened. How many white Christmas' have we seen prior to 2009? 1 in a 100 year period! Jesus...

Ok sorry about the rant. It's only warm average wise because early December we had two weeks of record heat. Since then it's only closer to average and a little below average in some places.



Does that look like 2011-2012???

[wxman57]

There is no letdown, and it has not been a bad winter. It is 180 from 2011-2012 so please stop this nonsense of comparing the two. Just because it's not snowing in your backyard right now or 0F doesn't mean the magic already hasn't happened. How many white Christmas' have we seen prior to 2009? 1 in a 100 year period! Jesus...

Ok sorry about the rant. It's only warm average wise because early December we had two weeks of record heat. Since then it's only closer to average and a little below average in some places.

http://i49.tinypic.com/2mo42vc.gif

Does that look like 2011-2012???

You may need to change your avatar if this weather keeps up.

Signals are all pointing to less cold for us the second half of this winter, though February can sometimes bring unwelcome (by me) surprises.

[Ntxw]

You may need to change your avatar if this weather keeps up.

Signals are all pointing to less cold for us the second half of this winter, though February can sometimes bring unwelcome (by me) surprises.

Us cold mongerers always have a say in February at least once you should know that by now sir . I may yet get to renew the avatar to an even better one with more snow! Hopefully

[Tireman4]

It will turn folks. It will sway again. I have faith.

[Tireman4]

You may need to change your avatar if this weather keeps up.

Signals are all pointing to less cold for us the second half of this winter, though February can sometimes bring unwelcome (by me) surprises.

Us cold mongerers always have a say in February at least once you should know that by now sir . I may yet get to renew the avatar to an even better one with more snow! Hopefully

With the next snow ( Yep, I am calling it), you can make a snowman riding a bike with Wxman57's helmet on it!!! He he he

[Portastorm]

The trend has not been a good one and I'm trying to look for anything positive (I promise) but both the GFS and Euro Control run shows one freeze over the next 2 weeks for DFW. There is now a very good chance that we'll end up warmer than last year through the first 2 months of the winter season, which I didn't think would even be possible. Yikes !!

I challenged this claim yesterday and maybe you didn't see my post. I'd like to see data to support your assertion that DFW is the same or warmer than last year. I did an analysis of temps at the DFW airport and compared December 2011/January 2012 to December 2012/January 2013 (to date). As it stands today, DFW airport has registered colder than average mean temps compared to the same period last year. December 11 was 0.5 above and January 12 was 4.5 above as compared to December 12 which was 4.0 above and January 13 being 0.3 below.

So, I'm not sure what you're looking at.

[Ntxw]

With the next snow ( Yep, I am calling it), you can make a snowman riding a bike with Wxman57's helmet on it!!! He he he

I actually contemplated on making a wxman-snowman on Christmas but didn't due to things going on for the occasion. If chance comes you bet I will since you renewed the idea

[Ntxw]

Also for those looking at sensible weather, the next two days will be warm no doubt just like wxman57 said. This weekend will cool off back to normal with a weak front and clouds/showers coming from the SW. Low heights in Alaska will warm things up again early next week for 2-3 days so the next 5-7 days will be above normal.

It is the system after the 28th (the one causing the warmth early next week) that comes down and heights rise in Alaska again for a NE Pac ridge. That's when things get active again with severe weather and possibly winter storm for the southern plains so to avoid any confusion on timing.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX has an interesting discussion (well, my version).

DISCUSSION...
A COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION/RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PRODUCE
FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY MID MORNING WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MIXING DOWN AFTER SUNRISE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MAY BECOME NECESSARY TOMORROW MORNING.

TONIGHT...WE`LL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATING MEXICO AND GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED GULF ADVECTION...DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING...THUS WILL FORECAST FOG TO AGAIN FORM LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO LATE MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY BE WORSE TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN THE INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE BRINGING IN SOME ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON A CANADIAN/SIBERIAN COLD FRONT...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY. THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT ALONG OUR NORTHERN FWD-EWX CWA BORDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS FILLING AND SHIFTING EAST. WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION EASING THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HEAVY THUNDERSNOW STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE POOLING COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLOODING FREEZING RAINS AND THUNDERSNOW STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH INTO WEST TEXAS. SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DYING FRONT FROM THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO EASTERN CWA COUNTIES. IT WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING AND HEAVIER SNOWS WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL INTO OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY GULF FLOW OVER OUR REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN PLAINS.
A CONTINUED MOISTURE BUILDUP MONDAY WITH GIVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY. DAYTIME MIXING OF WESTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A FEW FLOODING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.



This "Spring thaw" is depressing me. Too early!

[wxman57]

Fortunately (for me), that cold front stalls north of Houston Friday night/early Saturday. Some cool air for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area this weekend. Here's a meteogram I made for the Dallas area (12z GFS data). Very little rain is indicated.

[orangeblood]

Does that look like 2011-2012???

A complete 180 from last winter?...I'm not talking about snowfall - this is regarding temps. And why are you discounting 3 weeks of the Meteorological winter season than begins on December 1 ?. Looking from the meteorological start of winter up until now, the numbers for the Texas climo are fairly similar looking ( To me, a half degree either side of where we were last year is similar) and even in other parts of the country. And will only get closer as we go through the next 7-10 days regarding Texas temps. It appears that the even though the northeast and midwest US will significantly knock down those above normal temps over the next few weeks....the Southern Plains looks like it got the short end of the stick through the first two months of the meteorological winter. Please don't shoot the messenger...I'm only trying to put the facts out there

Dec. 1, 2012 - Jan. 21, 2013


Dec. 1, 2011 - Jan. 21, 2013

[Portastorm]

Please don't shoot the messenger...I'm only trying to put the facts out there

Buddy, so am I. Did you see my post above? I've got hard numbers which show this winter has been cooler than last year for Dallas.

[Ntxw]

Does that look like 2011-2012???

A complete 180 from last winter?...I'm not talking about snowfall - this is regarding temps. And why are you discounting 3 weeks of the Meteorological winter season than begins on December 1 ?. Looking from the meteorological start of winter up until now, the numbers for the Texas climo are fairly similar looking ( To me, a half degree either side of where we were last year is similar) and even in other parts of the country. And will only get closer as we go through the next 7-10 days regarding Texas temps. It appears that the even though the northeast and midwest US will significantly knock down those above normal temps over the next few weeks....the Southern Plains looks like it got the short end of the stick through the first two months of the meteorological winter. Please don't shoot the messenger...I'm only trying to put the facts out there.

Yes I understand that, I acknowledged average wise it was warm. I also pointed out the 2 weeks in early December of record warmth being the main culprit for the insane December average. It is not too far off from 2011-2012, but think about it. Sensible weather last year spanned the entire period week after week was warm. You had one or two cold days to break it off. There was no sustained cold. This year same result but going about it very differently. There was sustained cold for an entire month after the 2 weeks of heat that was crazy high.

Edit: Yes there was actually 3 weeks but that third week wasn't as bad as the first two

[dhweather]

Fortunately (for me), that cold front stalls north of Houston Friday night/early Saturday. Some cool air for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area this weekend. Here's a meteogram I made for the Dallas area (12z GFS data). Very little rain is indicated.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zjan23.gif

Shock and awe - a warm and dry forecast for north Texas.

[orangeblood]

Please don't shoot the messenger...I'm only trying to put the facts out there

Buddy, so am I. Did you see my post above? I've got hard numbers which show this winter has been cooler than last year for Dallas.

What are we arguing about here - a 1/4 to 1/2 of a degree for one point on a map ?? Just look at the map above - the entire state of Texas as a whole is as warm if not warmer overall and will more than likely surpass 2011-2012 through the end of this month. I never thought we'd EVER bring up the dreadful winter of 2011-2012 again but it's hard to ignore and most people around here want to ignore it, except for wxman57 of course!!

I normally gauge a winter by how many times a week I can get out on the golf course (Days of greater than 60 F with no rain) during December through February....well I've been out on the course more this winter than last as it seems like last winter was wetter as well.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Oh please just take it all from up here! No one from one end of Canada to the other will mind in the least!

I guarantee it will be eons before you lust for snow and cold again (and this is a pretty mild winter relatively speaking)!

So which part of Canada could be supplying the United States with "The Day after Tomorrow" cold mentioned above?

And when?????????