Texas Winter 2012-2013

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3401 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:51 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Please don't shoot the messenger...I'm only trying to put the facts out there

Buddy, so am I. Did you see my post above? I've got hard numbers which show this winter has been cooler than last year for Dallas.


What are we arguing about here - a 1/4 to 1/2 of a degree for one point on a map ?? Just look at the map above - the entire state of Texas as a whole is as warm if not warmer overall and will more than likely surpass 2011-2012 through the end of this month. I never thought we'd EVER bring up the dreadful winter of 2011-2012 again but it's hard to ignore and most people around here want to ignore it, except for wxman57 of course!!

I normally gauge a winter by how many times a week I can get out on the golf course (Days of greater than 60 F with no rain) during December through February....well I've been out on the course more this winter than last as it seems like last winter was wetter as well.


Actually, this is just part of wxman57's evil plan. First he cooks up a period of mild weather with little promise ahead in the models and then he gets us winter lovers to fight amongst ourselves. :wink:
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#3402 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:07 pm

Alright lets agree this is the winter of 2011-2012 redo no need to look at it any further. Any thoughts of 2013-2014? Rumblings of La Nina may come and another dreadful winter maybe even worst :(
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#3403 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:10 pm

We had consistent mild weather last year for our winter. So far with this winter, we have had more freezes and much cooler low maximum days already. This winter we have had our warm days, but i still think its cooler so far.

Looking ahead, i think mid feb we will have a cold shot. The models are showing something similar i believe as well. As a winter guy, i am ok with that. Feb can bring the coldest and snowiest weather of the year according to history so there is absolutely no reason to panic right now. We will all be happy in the end this winter. Wxman57 is getting his warm weather now, we had our cold last week. I think cold will show its face again.

Also, how about all this fog? Sat nights fog was BRUTAL. I could only see 3 stripes in the road. Doesnt compare to the 1 1/2 stripes in the road i saw outside of san fran once though. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3404 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:15 pm

Hmmm, not exactly spring looking...

Image
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Re:

#3405 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:Alright lets agree this is the winter of 2011-2012 redo no need to look at it any further. Any thoughts of 2013-2014? Rumblings of La Nina may come and another dreadful winter maybe even worst :(



I was thinking of this today, is it really? :( Maybe it will only be a weak one. Weak La Ninas are quite cold for us right? Wasnt a recent cold year a weak nina?
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Re: Re:

#3406 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:41 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I was thinking of this today, is it really? :( Maybe it will only be a weak one. Weak La Ninas are quite cold for us right? Wasnt a recent cold year a weak nina?


There's a very good ENSO thread we have that I follow during the off-season (summer). Cycloneye keeps great updates on it and right now neutral/La Nina is favored in the cold PDO but this far out it's nothing more than a guess~!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=2800

Ninas favor mild and dry for Texas. On occasion they can be cold but for short periods. The warmest winters (last year) are weak ninas in general or very near
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#3407 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:14 pm

Here's a fun little image to brighten up the evening! Courtesy 18z GFS

Image
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3408 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:17 pm

Well hello there....
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3409 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:28 pm

Larry Cosgrove says winter cancel in about 3 weeks. "Keep in mind that in an ENSO-neutral year, however, strong and lasting warm-ups usually take place in Texas and the Old South by the third week of next month. Bottom line: if you like the idea of being colder, relish it because our spring is likely to be early, quite warm and humid".
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ry-24-2013
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3410 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:44 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Larry Cosgrove says winter cancel in about 3 weeks. "Keep in mind that in an ENSO-neutral year, however, strong and lasting warm-ups usually take place in Texas and the Old South by the third week of next month. Bottom line: if you like the idea of being colder, relish it because our spring is likely to be early, quite warm and humid".
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ry-24-2013


What a waste of a winter here......oh how I wish we had cooled you folks off! :cry:

p.s. please share any of your upcoming summer joy with the East (I gather they would like to warm up).
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3411 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:41 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Larry Cosgrove says winter cancel in about 3 weeks. "Keep in mind that in an ENSO-neutral year, however, strong and lasting warm-ups usually take place in Texas and the Old South by the third week of next month. Bottom line: if you like the idea of being colder, relish it because our spring is likely to be early, quite warm and humid".
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ry-24-2013



And yet Larry was one of the ones beating the drums about coming cold a few weeks ago. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3412 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:42 pm

This is all very sad.....sigh....
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#3413 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:45 pm

Cheer up guys :cheesy:. It's been like this all winter, when it's cold it's all good when it's warm it's all sad. We'll go through it a few more times before spring comes calling. We've been spoiled the past 4 years so we forget what the 90s and early 2000s were.
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Re:

#3414 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:Here's a fun little image to brighten up the evening! Courtesy 18z GFS

http://i48.tinypic.com/nh0wwo.gif



That looks promising for SOME kind of precip. Follow the vorticity - wise words.


Of course that's a week out and highly subject to change. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#3415 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:13 pm

dhweather wrote:That looks promising for SOME kind of precip. Follow the vorticity - wise words.


Of course that's a week out and highly subject to change. :wink:


Wise words indeed! If it's any consolation both major models have had this system in some form or fashion (timing) for the past 5+ days, at least some consistency there :wink:
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#3416 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:31 pm

0z GFS continues the food for thought

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3417 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:51 am

aggiecutter wrote:Larry Cosgrove says winter cancel in about 3 weeks. "Keep in mind that in an ENSO-neutral year, however, strong and lasting warm-ups usually take place in Texas and the Old South by the third week of next month. Bottom line: if you like the idea of being colder, relish it because our spring is likely to be early, quite warm and humid".
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... ry-24-2013

Yes, after mid Feb it could warm up but he did mention the three weeks prior to that some cold readings could penetrate Texas after the mid week storm coming up. It is not over yet. We have hope!!!
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That heat must be heaven

#3418 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:08 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Well sounds like the cold delivered up to the midwest and north east.

Yikes! :froze:

http://news.msn.com/us/sub-zero-tempera ... -northeast

Yes, we're an icebox right now. Timmins Ontario reported a windchill of -50ºC a night ago. Walk into that and you'll fall in love with the heat all over again :wink: .

Palmer divide shadow wrote:Wxman57 .you are welcome in Colorado.Mid 70's today which is insane for Jan.No humidity. Lol, in fact the dew point is -25 with 2% humidity. We so need moisture :-(

Wow, that's like dessert humidity. Good electrical shock weather.

Ntxw wrote:There is no letdown, and it has not been a bad winter. It is 180 from 2011-2012 so please stop this nonsense of comparing the two. Just because it's not snowing in your backyard right now or 0F doesn't mean the magic already hasn't happened.

My view is if it felt like a letdown to them, it IS a letdown because the only thing that matters is the perception one takes. The point of this thread is to get excited and thrilled about winter weather...if they aren't feeling that then the winter has let them down. The magic is yet to come in mind but if you want it now just go to Oswago county NY or Port Elgin Ontario to see real magic :lol: :lol: .

Ntxw wrote:Alright lets agree this is the winter of 2011-2012 redo no need to look at it any further. Any thoughts of 2013-2014? Rumblings of La Nina may come and another dreadful winter maybe even worst :(

:lol: I LOL'd at this post. I can just imagine the tone of it so that makes it pretty funny. Rumblings of some major heat in the future?

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Doesnt compare to the 1 1/2 stripes in the road i saw outside of san fran once though. :eek:

People in San Fran don't want their location to be called San Fran.

I saw 20ºC for Dallas yesterday on the NA map. So that image on page 169 I posted of the PV in MI, what are your thoughts on that and what would that translate to for ground truth?
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3419 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:57 am

A quick early morning perusal of the op runs as well as the ensembles continues to show discontinuity between the GFS and King Euro. Are we surprised?! Of course not. :roll:

These two images are from the 0z ensemble runs, first showing the GFS and then King Euro. The keys next week for wintry weather for us in Texas, I think, will be where exactly does that West Coast ridging set up and how deep does that trough dig?? Very important to watch.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Image

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And by the way, there are good reasons why some of us are saying that we can't trust the operational model runs for either the GFS or King Euro (oh it pains me to include him in this category!). Read below from HPC and it will explain why.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 27 2013 - 12Z THU JAN 31 2013

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SEEM TO REASONABLY SHOW THAT MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WORKING INTO THE WRN US THIS WEEKEND WILL AMPLIFY
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE WRN-CNTRL CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE SUGGESTS SOME ENERGY WITHIN THIS TROUGH MAY BE PULLED SWWD
OVER THE SW US. THIS MAY BRING A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO THE WEST AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING DOWNSTREAM. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK THE STEADY
PROGRESSION OF THE WRN TROUGH ENERGIES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ASSOCIATED LEAD FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION INTO/AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OFFER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER PCPN
CENTERED OVER THE E-CENTRAL US/SERN US AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US
WITH A DRIER TREND OVER THE WEST.

WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE HELD ONTO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT EVOLUTION
OVER THE CONUS AND VICINITY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
EACH OTHER WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE
MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH AND WITH
THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM/STREAM DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE.

ACCORDINGLY...HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB
PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND...LEANING A BIT MORE ON THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF
MEAN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE COMPATABLE ENOUGH
THOUGH THAT A BLEND STILL MAINTAINS REASONABLE EMBEDDED SYSTEM
DEFINITION THAT SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.

SCHICHTEL
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3420 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:34 am

This is rapidly becoming the "winter of my content", Ntxw. I see you changed your avatar.

At least until next Wednesday's cold front arrives:
Image
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