Texas Winter 2012-2013

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3441 Postby Snowman67 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think there's a good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (Bush airport and south).



If you are willing to use Hooks airport as the location for that assumption (official NWS site for Tomball), I will bet you lunch on that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3442 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:51 pm

I'm not so sure about that Wxman57. I think it will be a close call. The question is, is this just our January thaw or the beginning of the end of freezes for Houston? Models don't give us enough of a clue yet but what will be needed is another pattern change so we are just getting back doored by the cold fronts.
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Re:

#3443 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:21 pm

Ntxw wrote: I am willing to bet my noodles big changes are ahead in the modelling world.


If wxman57 is going to make any bets he better hope the 0z GFS isn't even remotely correct. Our little 'storm' has an arctic front and subtropical jet attached to it on there next week with SW flow ahead of it. Cold air is not that far away beyond that. Is it the right solution? I say no but in between the lines it's a good guess of sypnotics.

Still not overall consistency but it is persistent on the change
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#3444 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:07 am

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=houston+ ... ,s:0,i:113
A picture just for our favorite Houston weatherman. Snow at his airport. December 2009
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#3445 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:55 am

:uarrow: :lol: I love it! What an adorable itsy bitsy Houston snowman!
http://www.google.com/imgres?q=houston+%20...%20,s:0,i:113

Image

Oh Wxman I surely do see why your terrified of cold down there!




:rofl:
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#3446 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:03 am

The 0z GFS ensembles overall is colder than the OP with some showing eye candy (snow). 0z Euro, well lets just say after next week it's long range says winter over :lol: Ukmet/Canadian more or less falls in line with the GFS for the next 3-7 days.
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Re: Re:

#3447 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:53 am

Ntxw wrote:
Ntxw wrote: I am willing to bet my noodles big changes are ahead in the modelling world.


If wxman57 is going to make any bets he better hope the 0z GFS isn't even remotely correct. Our little 'storm' has an arctic front and subtropical jet attached to it on there next week with SW flow ahead of it. Cold air is not that far away beyond that. Is it the right solution? I say no but in between the lines it's a good guess of sypnotics.

Still not overall consistency but it is persistent on the change


All I see in the 00Z GFS is lows in the upper 30s across Houston as the coldest temps for the next 2 weeks. No freeze indicated for Houston.

Sure is quiet in here. Maybe it's time to start a Texas spring/summer thread and discuss the upcoming spring warm temps and heat of summer?
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Re: Re:

#3448 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:47 am

wxman57 wrote:All I see in the 00Z GFS is lows in the upper 30s across Houston as the coldest temps for the next 2 weeks. No freeze indicated for Houston.

Sure is quiet in here. Maybe it's time to start a Texas spring/summer thread and discuss the upcoming spring warm temps and heat of summer?



Noooooooo! Not yet sir. Sigh...LOL
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Re: Re:

#3449 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:29 am

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:All I see in the 00Z GFS is lows in the upper 30s across Houston as the coldest temps for the next 2 weeks. No freeze indicated for Houston.

Sure is quiet in here. Maybe it's time to start a Texas spring/summer thread and discuss the upcoming spring warm temps and heat of summer?



Noooooooo! Not yet sir. Sigh...LOL


He better hope he's right ... because if we end up with some "winter" soon, it's going to get ugly around here! :P
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Re: Re:

#3450 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:36 am

[Sure is quiet in here. Maybe it's time to start a Texas spring/summer thread and discuss the upcoming spring warm temps and heat of summer?[/quote]


Noooooooo! Not yet sir. Sigh...LOL[/quote]

He better hope he's right ... because if we end up with some "winter" soon, it's going to get ugly around here! :P[/quote]


He is taunting us Porta. Just taunting us....Sigh...LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3451 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:43 am

Temperature is down into the mid 40s in Dallas. Freezing rain in southern Arkansas. Still below freezing in most of OK. Fortunately, I don't live up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3452 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:12 am

12z GFS rolling in now ... it is trending much more towards the Euro solution next week of a more pronounced, robust cut-off low in the Southwest which is slower than the progressive/weaker trough it was previously showing. Interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3453 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:19 am

Portastorm wrote:12z GFS rolling in now ... it is trending much more towards the Euro solution next week of a more pronounced, robust cut-off low in the Southwest which is slower than the progressive/weaker trough it was previously showing. Interesting.


It's still a good 36hrs faster than the Euro with next week's front, bringing it through Houston early next Wednesday:

Image
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#3454 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:40 am

It is interesting the models are digging much more and trending colder each run with lower heights. There's a connection to the tropics via STJ, little doubt next week is going to feature a big national storm.

Wxman57 feel free to come up and bike in Dallas this morning, the clouds/mist and raw 40s is quite nice! :cheesy:
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Re:

#3455 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:53 am

Ntxw wrote:It is interesting the models are digging much more and trending colder each run with lower heights. There's a connection to the tropics via STJ, little doubt next week is going to feature a big national storm.

Wxman57 feel free to come up and bike in Dallas this morning, the clouds/mist and raw 40s is quite nice! :cheesy:


No thanks. The wife & I are planning a nice evening bike ride over to Ruggle's Cafe for dinner. It'll be a bit cool with temps down into the mid to upper 60s for the return 12 mile ride, but we'll be wearing coats.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3456 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:38 pm

Just as the MJO is coming around into favorable phases, the AO index starts to rise!!! :break: I guess with two back to back great winters, we should've expected back to back frustrating winters....
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#3457 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:10 pm

The changes on the euro :lol: medium and short range. Now it's warmer and weaker next week (towards the GFS old solution but not as cold) and long range instead of an Alaska vortex/trough it's a broad ridge with Aleutian trough. A lot of SoCal/Baja lows are showing up though for some runs.

To be fair the GFS is the lone model that brings more cold than the others. JMA still the beloved solution :wink:

orangeblood wrote:Just as the MJO is coming around into favorable phases, the AO index starts to rise!!! :break: I guess with two back to back great winters, we should've expected back to back frustrating winters....


They may be correct this time as the big high over the arctic is leaving. I'm not certain how much it will rise though because a Rossby wave breaking cyclone is expected to occur in the north Pacific bringing in new Arctic ridging from the WPAC. Lets hope we make do with the remaining cold via favorable teleconnections before Feb is out at least for snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3458 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:24 pm

Yep, the 12Z Euro sped up things quite a bit next week and is very much in line with the 12Z GFS as far as next Wednesday's front moving through Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3459 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:59 pm

Snippet from this morning's HPC discussion


***

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

VALID 12Z MON JAN 28 2013 - 12Z FRI FEB 01 2013

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AS
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW DIVERGING IDEAS FOR HOW MUCH
FLOW SEPARATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE INITIAL WRN CONUS TROF.

ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FCST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FCST PERIOD IS SOME SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY
WITHIN THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED MEAN TROF EXPECTED TO REACH THE ERN
HALF OF NOAM. IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT ARRAY OF SOLNS AND A HINT
OF THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER
VERSUS THEIR 12Z/24 RUNS... PREFER A BLEND OF THOSE TWO 00Z MEANS
IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE BEST CONTINUITY POSSIBLE WHILE AWAITING
BETTER GUIDANCE CLUSTERING.

FROM THE LARGE SCALE PERSPECTIVE THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE ERN
PAC RIDGE STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SWWD ELONGATION OF
WRN CONUS FLOW AS SHOWN TO SOME DEGREE IN TELECONNECTIONS... ON
THE WAY TOWARD MEANS SUGGESTING NEG HGT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER
SERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND PSBLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT BY
LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. BASED ON TELECONS THE DIFFERENCE IN
EMPHASIS OF THESE TWO FEATURES TRANSLATES TO THE LARGEST SPREAD IN
PCPN POTENTIAL OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... WITH THE
STRONGER EPAC RIDGE SUPPORTING MSTR OVER THE SRN TIER VERSUS DRY
CONDS WITH A MORE DOMINANT ERN NOAM TROF. ULTIMATELY SOME ACCOUNT
FOR EITHER SCENARIO IS RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z AND TO
SOME EXTENT 06Z GEFS MEANS SHOW MORE SWWD ELONGATION OF ENERGY
THAN THE 12Z RUN... WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN HAS TRENDED AWAY A
FRACTION FROM THE 12Z RUN WITH THE DEPTH/WWD EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT
IS LEFT BEHIND...
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#3460 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:10 pm

The CPC's latest. No need to read all of it. Just highlighted the areas in blue that stuck out to me. As always, actions and outcomes "speak" louder than mere words from a long-range forecaster.:wink:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 25 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2013

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH-RESOLUTION RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE UPCOMING 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN, WITH A MODERATE RIDGE
NEAR THE WEST COAST, A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA,
AND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BAFFIN AND ELLESMERE ISLANDS
IN EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MOST MODEL RUNS ALSO ANTICIPATE SPLIT FLOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES DIRECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO
.
IN THE
ALASKA DOMAIN, THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT LOWERING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA,
APPARENTLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED STRENGTHENING OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN
SIBERIA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND
ACROSS ALASKA.

THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALL AREAS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THESE AREAS ROUGHLY CORRESPOND TO THE PREDICTED REGIONS OF BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PROG. ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, CALIFORNIA, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU,
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF ALASKA. THESE AREAS ROUGHLY
CORRESPOND TO THE PREDICTED AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND/OR
SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS CHESAPEAKE BAY. ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS OF RELATIVE WETNESS ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO
SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND/OR PROXIMITY TO STORM TRACKS. THERE ARE ENHANCED
ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, MOST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST STATES AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXPECTATION FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS IS MAINLY DUE TO NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS
FLOW. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2013

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN DURING
WEEK 2. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ANTICIPATE A RIDGE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ALASKA (EXCEPT THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH DEPICTS A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE),
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN,
SIMILAR TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, FAVORS
ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN FORECASTS THE WEST COAST RIDGE ABOUT 20
DEGREES LONGITUDE OFF THE WEST COAST, WHICH FAVORS LOWERING 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH OF THESE SINGLE GFS RUNS WERE
GIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHTING IN THE BLEND.

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND ALL REMAINING AREAS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LARGE AREA OF
COVERAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND NORTHWESTERLY
ANOMALOUS FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA,
MOST OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU,
AND THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE PREDICTED AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RELATED TO SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND
ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MOST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, THE APPALACHIANS, THE EAST GULF REGION, THE EAST COAST STATES, AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ALONG THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF
THE AVERAGE STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE ODDS OF RECEIVING
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU, MOST OF THE ROCKIES,
THE GREAT PLAINS FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS, AND
MUCH OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THIS LARGE AREA OF RELATIVE DRYNESS IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED
, WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA,
ARIZONA, AND THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA (PNA)
PATTERN WILL BECOME NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. IF IT DOES, THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN CHANGE WOULD THEN FAVOR A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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