Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Tale of two halves it's not even funny. Raw chilly upper 40s with dense overcast while heatwave to the south. Take your blessings fellow north Texans because we'll be taking in refugees from the wrath of wxman57 down south if this keeps up.

[Portastorm]

Some real interesting forecast discussions this afternoon out of NWSFOs in Texas regarding next week. With the lack of agreement in the models and the wide diversity showing in individual ensemble members for both the GFS and Euro, a lot of changes might be expected in the days ahead for next week's forecast.

FROM AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO --
THIS COLD SEASON HAS PROVEN TO BE TRICKY WITH THE TIMING OF
FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FROM FORT WORTH --
NEXT WEEK IS WHERE THE REAL HEADACHES START FOR THE FORECAST.
ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE STORM SYSTEM ANALYZED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. LUCKILY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THAT
PART OF THE SCENARIO...BUT START TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE IMPORTANT
DETAILS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN SUGGESTING MORE OF A CUT OFF
LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE 12Z EUROPEAN TODAY IS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST 7 OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...A FEW CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGEST A CUT OFF LOW IS WELL WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES. LENDING A BIT MORE CREDENCE TO THE CUT OFF
POTENTIAL...THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE 09Z SREF SHOWED THE 500MB
PATTERN CUTTING OFF IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 15Z SREF BACKS OFF
OF THIS...MUCH LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE EUROPEAN.

THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND WHAT I CAN SEE AND INFER
FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALL SUGGEST A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM. WHILE SATELLITE DATA AND
INFORMATION IS GOOD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...I WOULD IMAGINE THIS
FORECAST WILL NOT BECOME CLEARER UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE
BULK OF THE STORM IS SAMPLED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR
NETWORKS.

[arizona_sooner]

Oh, this winter has had to be a nightmare for the forecast meteorologists in Texas and Oklahoma... I think using the models for the 1-2 day period, persistence in the 3-5 day, and climatology outside of that would have been the best bet this year....

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

This wouldn't happen to be what you cold weather vultures are hoping/looking for would it???



whenever the count jumps on the Canadian thread I sense your sweaty hands are behind it.

[Ntxw]

This wouldn't happen to be what you cold weather vultures are hoping/looking for would it???

That it is ma'am! We're hoping that high over you then would grow and slide straight south. GFS has trended colder but no help from Euro yet. Some stronger ridging west of you and east coast would be nice too . Maybe a hanging trough in the southwest for some overrunning too please!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

This wouldn't happen to be what you cold weather vultures are hoping/looking for would it???

That it is ma'am! We're hoping that high over you then would grow and slide straight south. GFS has trended colder but no help from Euro yet. Some stronger ridging west of you and east coast would be nice too . Maybe a hanging trough in the southwest for some overrunning too please!

For you folks I'm betting.....I have a feeling if that happens the results won't be as heartwarming for me.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

oh quit sulking.....I'll do my best.

[Ntxw]

oh quit sulking.....I'll do my best.

It's good to get some verification that you are getting cold though. You have a better correlation to us since you're right next to the rockies than just east of you. The last cold snap that effected the east wasn't that cold for you so it's good sign I think for us.

There are some -45F to -50F in the Yukon just upstream

[Ntxw]

How about we take the 0z NAM at 84 hours and cash it?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

There are some -45F to -50F in the Yukon just upstream

Now after making that promise the Texas Toad tells me that!

[Ntxw]

There are some -45F to -50F in the Yukon just upstream

Now after making that promise the Texas Toad tells me that!

Had to get it in writing first Didn't want to scare you out of the deal too early

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Did you happen to see that pic that recently popped up on Vbhoutex's page (placed there by an Easterner in Rhode Island I believe)????

ah crap.

[Ntxw]

^ I did

Maybe we can get a similar pose from wxman57 once PWC completes due diligence for next week going to and from work

[Cyclenall]

Are you guys still reading this for winter weather info? The latest blog entries talk about the upcoming polar vortex dip and how bad it could get for us in the NE. It doesn't look like Texas will get any though, time to switch to your faces for those who love cold. It could be much colder than the last artic blast for us in Ontario.

There is also an entry about the MJO which Ntxw will be interested in.

[Ntxw]

Are you guys still reading this for winter weather info? The latest blog entries talk about the upcoming polar vortex dip and how bad it could get for us in the NE. It doesn't look like Texas will get any though, time to switch to your faces for those who love cold. It could be much colder than the last artic blast for us in Ontario.

There is also an entry about the MJO which Ntxw will be interested in.

I don't think this next wave is going to be as bad as the last one for you guys. Ridge is off the coast this time and there's some east coast ridging going on. This is SW flow for eastern Canada which is a warm wind vs the WNW flow previously, still will be cold but not the same way the last one was. The key is the hanging trough in the southwest, it's low heights will dictate some on where the cold air goes.

And yes I am well aware of the progress of the MJO

[Ntxw]

0z GFS continues it's full latitude open trough. It's interesting it has very low heights yet isn't as cold as what you would expect for such (546dm heights into central Texas usually means deep arctic air mass). But it is trending colder each run.



Example: Feb 2011 546dm went as far south as the Red River and this air mass looks just as cold in the source region.

[weatherdude1108]

Got back from dinner around 7pm. Noticed a mild Springlike feel in the air (questioning if it really is January). My weather station read 65.2 degrees with a light SE wind. At 10pm I let dog out -- noticeable chill (relatively putting it)! Station read 55.8 degrees with a NE wind in the 4-mph range. Front must have sifted through to keep Winter in check, at least briefly.

[gpsnowman]

Has the Euro shown any late night surprises? The Euro comes out around this time if I am not mistaken. Just wondering as I get ready to go home from work.

[Ntxw]

Has the Euro shown any late night surprises? The Euro comes out around this time if I am not mistaken. Just wondering as I get ready to go home from work.

Euro has been going to the GFS (but a little warmer) open trough idea for next week, no surprises. If it's long range is correct we can say farewell to winter, but it is a wet pattern

[Cyclenall]

I don't think this next wave is going to be as bad as the last one for you guys. Ridge is off the coast this time and there's some east coast ridging going on. This is SW flow for eastern Canada which is a warm wind vs the WNW flow previously, still will be cold but not the same way the last one was. The key is the hanging trough in the southwest, it's low heights will dictate some on where the cold air goes.

And yes I am well aware of the progress of the MJO

We'll see, but that's like saying after getting the appetizer (current arctic blast) the next meal is going to be the mint you receive after the meal. I was expecting the entree of the peak SSW and polar collapse. This just confirms my dislike for winter in general...mostly boring. Just a few days out of a whole season being something notable does not impress me. Let's just jump into summer now I say .