#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 21, 2013 10:26 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.7S 34.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SLOWLY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A WELL
ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING A REGION OF VERY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. SSTS OFF THE COAST ARE 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTION, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/