Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

Mother nature is about to stick this in Winter. Might have already.

[Portastorm]

What leads you to that conclusion, dhweather? The fact that there is nothing on the horizon via the computer models?

We still have a good 4-5 weeks in a climatological sense of "winter" possibilities in much of Texas. There have been numerous winter weather events in the month of February and even some in early March. I think it's way too early to be calling the game in the third quarter.

I understand and even share some of the frustrations that many here seem to have. But there is still a ways to go, IMO.

[GaryHughes]

Preach on Reverend Portastorm, Preach on!

[Texas Snowman]

Yes sir, what he said.

Here in the Red River Valley, we've had several late March snows over the years including five inches in 2010.

Heck, Dallas even had a trace of snow on April 7, 2007 and Waco had one inch on that same date.

And Abilene had a huge 9.3 inches of snow and Sweetwater had 18 inches on April 5, 1996.

Calling the end of winter in late January - even such a call from Wxman57 - is (with all due respect) absurd IMO.

[wxman57]

Yes, I'm sure that even though February and March may feature normal to above normal temps in Texas that there will be PLENTY of snow here in April. Yeah, no doubt.

[Texas Snowman]

OK Mr. Smartypants, nobody said there would be plenty of snow in April.

But I did point out that snow is possible here in Texas - even in recent years -all the way into early April. Even your wicked warm-mongering powers haven't been able to prevent that!

Meanwhile, since there's no football on today and you've already seen enough model data for the day, we'd all like for you to go take a LOOONNNNGGG bike ride at the Kemah Boardwalk!

[Portastorm]

Now, now ... don't be a hater!

The point from my good friend Texas Snowman is that it is too early to be saying "winter is over." Now, it may be over (don't it ever even start?) in the Houston area. Or even Austin. I can't say for certain. But one would surmise, based on climatology, that north Texas has the best shot of any of us.

Now be nice wxman57, or the whole lot of us will wish for at least one named tropical system to be threatening the GOM for a 85 day straight period this coming tropical season! You don't want to be working 85 straight days, now do you?!

[Texas Snowman]

What leads you to that conclusion, dhweather? The fact that there is nothing on the horizon via the computer models?

I do have to admit that I've gotten a lot of laughs this winter from the models and this board.

It seems like everyone - on both sides of the cold and warm debate, mind you - has been eager to point out how unreliable the models have been beyond a few days time.

As in "Warmth?!? Pshaw! The models show that we're going into the tank by month's end" or "Cold weather?!? What have you been smoking? The models show that we're going to warm up to 80 consecutive days of 80 degree weather!"

And then, as soon as those same unreliable models latch on to something that supports the cause on either side, they are touted as the Gospel truth.

Kind of reminds me of tropical weather season!!!

[wxman57]

OK Mr. Smartypants, nobody said there would be plenty of snow in April.

But I did point out that snow is possible here in Texas - even in recent years -all the way into early April. Even your wicked warm-mongering powers haven't been able to prevent that!

Meanwhile, since there's no football on today and you've already seen enough model data for the day, we'd all like for you to go take a LOOONNNNGGG bike ride at the Kemah Boardwalk!

Of course it's possible it could snow again as far south as Dallas over the next month, but it's looking unlikely. The pro-bowl is on this evening. And I'm heading out for another long (warm) bike ride, but not down a short pier. It's nice to ride in shorts and short sleeves in January, though my wife still thinks it's too "cold" to ride in short sleeves. Looking forward to more warmth in February. I remember back in '86 when we hit the 90s in February. The whole '85-'86 winter was sunny, warm and dry. THAT was a "winter" I'll never forget.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: Now, now ... don't be a hater!

No, I was chuckling pretty good as I wrote that. Seriously Wxman57! Because even though we don't always like your weather, we certainly do like you on this board.

Except when you're right, of course!!!

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Now, now ... don't be a hater!

No, I was chuckling pretty good as I wrote that. Seriously Wxman57! Because even though we don't always like your weather, we certainly do like you on this board.

Except when you're right, of course!!!

Oh, I know! It's all in good fun. Heck, with no winter weather per se to speak of, we have to keep the thread going somehow!

And yes, we may not like his preference for warm weather all the time but wxman57 is a great guy and our all star!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Yes, I'm sure that even though February and March may feature normal to above normal temps in Texas that there will be PLENTY of snow here in April. Yeah, no doubt.

yep snow just thrives in those temps.

On a positive note, for you Texan vultures circling the Canadian forum, the upcoming nasty cold is now being talked about by our mets.

[Kennethb]

Dear S. S.

I will be taking the dogs to the Krewe of Mutts Mardi Gras Parade here in Baton Rouge.

For January a sultry 75 degrees day under sunny skies.

May even break a sweat. But will need to bring water for the dogs.

Though I will trade you a 75 degree day in January for an couple of inches of snow.

[dhweather]

What leads you to that conclusion, dhweather? The fact that there is nothing on the horizon via the computer models?

We still have a good 4-5 weeks in a climatological sense of "winter" possibilities in much of Texas. There have been numerous winter weather events in the month of February and even some in early March. I think it's way too early to be calling the game in the third quarter.

I understand and even share some of the frustrations that many here seem to have. But there is still a ways to go, IMO.

Well, the NWS forecast doesn't have us below freezing in the next week, when we are at or just past the heart of winter. We've seen better chances at 60's and 70's than the 20's and 30's.

There is still a ways to go, and yes, I've seen snow in April. But this year has seen the bulk of the really cold air go to the great lakes then the midwest and New England. That seems to be to prevalent pattern thus far this year. We are in a drought, less water and more warmth. The days are getting longer, the solstice has passed. Overall, I just don't feel like we'll see another significant wintry precip event.

And while I don't really trust models beyond 3-4 days, it looks like we'll be at climo or warmer for the next two weeks. At that juncture, it's mid February. Statistically speaking, the odds from that point forward are headed into Spring. Just my 2 cents.

[dhweather]

Yes, I'm sure that even though February and March may feature normal to above normal temps in Texas that there will be PLENTY of snow here in April. Yeah, no doubt.

OK, that made me laugh.

[Ntxw]

Perhaps a spring thread is necessary Portastorm so that folks can put their forecasts and thoughts on spring-like weather. This thread can be left for those who keep an eye for wintry weather, even though it's currently not in our playing field.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Dear S. S.

I will be taking the dogs to the Krewe of Mutts Mardi Gras Parade here in Baton Rouge.

For January a sultry 75 degrees day under sunny skies.

May even break a sweat. But will need to bring water for the dogs.

Though I will trade you a 75 degree day in January for an couple of inches of snow.

*sigh* oh if only we could trade weather for the next two weeks!

[Portastorm]

Perhaps a spring thread is necessary Portastorm so that folks can put their forecasts and thoughts on spring-like weather. This thread can be left for those who keep an eye for wintry weather, even though it's currently not in our playing field.

As you wish ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114601

[Ntxw]

As for this week's storm, the models have quietly tried to put moisture into the cold air a little each run. GFS keeps it in Oklahoma and Arkansas while the NAM is probably the most aggressive. Euro is wetter than previous runs, folks along the Red River and Texarkana have something to watch this week. If we can develop a coastal low in SE Texas, that could make it interesting.

Edit: Also looks like the ensembles and even GFS is backing off the former prediction of very +AO and return it negative once we head into the new month to no surprise.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

As for this week's storm, the models have quietly tried to put moisture into the cold air a little each run. GFS keeps it in Oklahoma and Arkansas while the NAM is probably the most aggressive. Euro is wetter than previous runs, folks along the Red River and Texarkana have something to watch this week. If we can develop a coastal low in SE Texas, that could make it interesting.

Edit: Also looks like the ensembles and even GFS is backing off the former prediction of very +AO and return it negative once we head into the new month to no surprise.

Have you looked at the 09Z SREF?