Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Latest CFSv2 shows potential snow cover very far south (it did this one other time this winter just before xmas) in the coming weeks. Also it has a strong west based -NAO block as well, has higher pressures across Alaska/Canada and lower pressures across the US (undercutting jet).

[Portastorm]

To support Ntxw's take above, below is a snippet from the MJO Overview released today by the Climate Prediction Center. This comment regards how the MJO will impact sensible weather in the next few weeks:

For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, split flow and ridging across the western U.S. and a mean trough across the east until about mid-February. The MJO would also favor an active southern jet during this similar period. Thereafter, the MJO would support a tendency for a mean trough to develop across the western U.S. near the last week of February.

[BigB0882]

Latest CFSv2 shows potential snow cover very far south (it did this one other time this winter just before xmas) in the coming weeks. Also it has a strong west based -NAO block as well, has higher pressures across Alaska/Canada and lower pressures across the US (undercutting jet).

Out of curiosity, how far south?

It was really too warm today and should be even warmer tomorrow. I loved the weather yesterday, though. Perfect with the clouds blocking the sun on occasion. I could live with that year round.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

re the current cold front peeps in Calgary are reporting their temperature is now dropping.

Mine will take the plunge overnight.

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity, how far south?

It was really too warm today and should be even warmer tomorrow. I loved the weather yesterday, though. Perfect with the clouds blocking the sun on occasion. I could live with that year round.

I-20ish. Reality is no model is going to get it right it's just to make the point southern stream storms will move across the country vs the polar dry NW flow systems.

SPC has put up moderate risk of severe weather for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Ms. Just a heads up on that.

[BigB0882]

I will be watching that tomorrow night. I am in the SLGT risk area for now but it wouldn't take much to end up in the MDT area. Either way, the potential is there.

[cycloneye]

As mentioned about the heads up for the severe weather event that is expected, dont forget to follow the information about what is going on in the 2013 U.S Severe Weather Thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's 6:10am and 72 degrees on January 29th. That's just crazy!!! Where's my winter, where's my snow, and crappy drives into work, where's my GFS la la land models......where's my football....lol

[wxman57]

Cold weather is so depressing.

As if you've had experience with it!

(and a ski trip holiday does not count)

Hey, I know cold! The temperature here drops below 70F quite often in the winter.

And I did go skiing once when the morning low was -42F. I think it was about -25F when we started skiing that day.

I see that both the Euro & GFS are forecasting a breakdown of the current pattern in favor of a zonal flow. That should limit cold air intrusions into the U.S. through the first week or so of February (hopefully, longer).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cold weather is so depressing.

As if you've had experience with it!

(and a ski trip holiday does not count)

Hey, I know cold! The temperature here drops below 70F quite often in the winter.

And I did go skiing once when the morning low was -42F. I think it was about -25F when we started skiing that day.

I see that both the Euro & GFS are forecasting a breakdown of the current pattern in favor of a zonal flow. That should limit cold air intrusions into the U.S. through the first week or so of February (hopefully, longer).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

Good! So the cold air can pool up and get ready for an intrusion in mid-Feb

[orangeblood]

Latest CFSv2 shows potential snow cover very far south (it did this one other time this winter just before xmas) in the coming weeks. Also it has a strong west based -NAO block as well, has higher pressures across Alaska/Canada and lower pressures across the US (undercutting jet).

I think we'll get much more of an active storm track but the cold air just doesn't seem to press far enough south this winter. The MJO was a great indicator in the winter of 09-10 & 10-11 for wintry weather but they were also extremely negative AO winters - forcing cold air down into much lower latitudes. We need the AO to tank big time and NOW!!

Regarding the CFSv2 snow model, I've been following it all winter to use as another tool for snow forecasting and IMO, it is DREADFUL - almost every model run has snow down to the Texas Gulf Coast during the 45 day time period (sometimes over a foot) and we all know how that has worked out. A lot of kinks to work out with that model but hey I guess a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then!! Hopefully it's onto something this time

The latest Stratosphere forecast is not what we want to see....




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

Good! So the cold air can pool up and get ready for an intrusion in mid-Feb

Yes, it'll pool up north where it will probably just wait for summer to arrive so it can warm up. Does cold air long for warmth?

There have been significant cold outbreaks after mid February, but they're not common.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

It's 6:10am and 72 degrees on January 29th. That's just crazy!!! Where's my winter, where's my snow, and crappy drives into work, where's my GFS la la land models......where's my football....lol

KNOCK IT OFF!!! Quit PRAYING SO HARD DOWN THERE! It is SNOWING here AGAIN! YOUR winter is HERE and it WILL be heading DOWN there!!!
Work at eyeballing the States below here that have to WORK on building a SNOW pack......we have more than enough thanks!

If we hadn't had some warm days, which caused the snow to be compacted, the snow would be nearing the four foot mark in our yards.


summer memory of my backyard

It was NICE out there, it was WARM, it was COLOURFUL, we BBQ'd happily out there.

Praying for an early spring here

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You aren't listening very well......one of our weather apps is telling us we will be feeling -50F (not C) windchill tomorrow morning.

My husband who played in every blizzard when he was a farm kid is heading out the door saying F'ing cold, F'ing cold is on the way.

Wxman57 not one more word about your *cough* cold please.

[wxman57]

You aren't listening very well......one of our weather apps is telling us we will be feeling -50F (not C) windchill tomorrow morning.

My husband who played in every blizzard when he was a farm kid is heading out the door saying F'ing cold, F'ing cold is on the way.

Wxman57 not one more word about your *cough* cold please.

Hey, we were a bit cold on our bike rides last weekend with the temperature only into the mid to upper 70s. My wife even wore a long-sleeved jersey. Brrr!

Keep your snow and cold up north where it belongs, please.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You aren't listening very well......one of our weather apps is telling us we will be feeling -50F (not C) windchill tomorrow morning.

My husband who played in every blizzard when he was a farm kid is heading out the door saying F'ing cold, F'ing cold is on the way.

Wxman57 not one more word about your *cough* cold please.

Hey, we were a bit cold on our bike rides last weekend with the temperature only into the mid to upper 70s. My wife even wore a long-sleeved jersey. Brrr!

Keep your snow and cold up north where it belongs, please.

Am praying now you folks see a record breaking cold front down there!

[Tireman4]

You aren't listening very well......one of our weather apps is telling us we will be feeling -50F (not C) windchill tomorrow morning.
Keep your snow and cold up north where it belongs, please.

Am praying now you folks see a record breaking cold front down there!

I hope that happens, but have you not heard? Wxman57 has the powers to push the Earth closer to the Sun. Sigh. Cold snaps maybe a long distant memory now.......

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Am praying now you folks see a record breaking cold front down there!

I hope that happens, but have you not heard? Wxman57 has the powers to push the Earth closer to the Sun. Sigh. Cold snaps maybe a long distant memory now.......

in my dreams (at least this winter). Right now OMW is flexing his powers and they ARE much greater.

*sigh*

[Ntxw]

At least the the MJO is finally picking up pace after looping around 7 for eons! Lets hope the AO gets tanking and the two tango

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

quit grinning Ntxw.......I really do pray OMW's wolves circle your house!

a dreamer am I.