Severe Weather January 29-30

[cycloneye]

SPC AC 291956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...

...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2013

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 292015Z - 292215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL
OK...IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER ERN OK AND
WRN AR BUT FEW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
REMAINS INTENSE...AND SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS POCKETS OF HEATING ARE
OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS ERN OK AND AR...AND RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER ERN OK WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A DAMAGING
WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
STORMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST ALONG THE LINE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32439403 32459684 34439659 35379572 35359361 32439403

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 292026
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-TNZ000-TXZ000-300200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS
AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013

$$

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
ARC033-143-OKC001-135-292130-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0001.130129T2051Z-130129T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 246 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SHORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...STRICKLER...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...BLACKBURN AND
WINSLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3592 9445 3580 9410 3550 9451 3558 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 231DEG 45KT 3559 9450

$$

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARC033-143-292130-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T2130Z/
CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
308 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 305 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NATURAL DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO PRODUCING PART OF THE STORM IS NOW
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF NATURAL DAM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORROW...
CLYDE...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...STRICKLER...BLACKBURN AND WINSLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9437 3570 9444 3592 9445 3580 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 224DEG 35KT 3573 9436

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 311 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTHASVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WENTZVILLE...NEW MELLE...FORISTELL AND FLINT HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9087 3873 9077 3863 9111 3869 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 237DEG 45KT 3867 9109

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
MOC113-183-292200-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0002.130129T2130Z-130129T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 327 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WENTZVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION WEST OF FLINT HILL.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLD MONROE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3903 9080 3892 9065 3882 9089 3887 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 226DEG 39KT 3888 9087

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

CVKING

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL/NWRN
AR...S-CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 292131Z - 292300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. VWP DATA AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE
0-1-KM SRH VALUES OF 325-400 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MESOVORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LSX RDA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM
E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO WITHIN A REGION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE AND SFC-BASED
CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROPENSITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH EVOLUTION WAS EARLIER
DETECTED BY SRX WSR-88D DATA WITH A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED FROM
SEQUOYAH COUNTY OK INTO CRAWFORD/WASHINGTON COUNTIES AR. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM MAY CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH A THREAT FOR
MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NWRN AR. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE TO ITS EAST.

TORNADO WATCH 6 WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE BY WFO TULSA TO ADDRESS THE NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. THE
SVR THREAT WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 38349162 39459077 39419027 39138982 37979023 37019129
36199152 35409209 35349363 35399519 35779515 36189462
36449406 36819332 37469255 38349162

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
WESTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 340 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEECHVILLE...BATCHTOWN...MEPPEN...NUTWOOD...FIELDO N AND OTTERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9054 3909 9030 3893 9066 3900 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 232DEG 44KT 3898 9071

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 292146Z - 292345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS PERSIST BUT HAVE NOT BEEN SEVERE. SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ENOUGH TO MOVE
OFF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN BACKED FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE UPDRAFT MASS
IS BEING DIFFUSED BEHIND THE STORMS...PERHAPS MINIMIZING DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HIGHER E
OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY STILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
TX.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30909817 33019671 33009644 32329642 31529685 31029757
30909817

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, this can't be good.

Near PAH, temps now over 70 with sun poking through. That can only stir things up.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
431 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

MOC213-292300-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130129T2300Z/
TANEY MO-
431 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN TANEY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CST...

AT 428 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HOLLISTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANSON...EDGEWATER BEACH...FORSYTH...HOLLISTER...KIRBYVILLE...KISSEE
MILLS...MERRIAM WOODS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE...ROCKAWAY BEACH...
TABLE ROCK AND WALNUT SHADE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES BULL SHOALS LAKE...TABLE ROCK LAKE AND
TABLE ROCK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3650 9310 3651 9332 3682 9330 3682 9327
3668 9300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 254DEG 41KT 3653 9318

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KARDELL

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292237Z - 300100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY
INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL
OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
MOC153-213-292315-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0004.130129T2255Z-130129T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OZARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 452 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY...AND MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONG RUN...NOBLE...THORNFIELD AND WASOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 9300 3681 9273 3680 9257 3665 9254
3663 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 258DEG 30KT 3670 9287

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KARDELL

[CrazyC83]

The wording sounds like a PDS watch is being considered at least.

[WeatherGuesser]

I hate when these things come in over night, but it looks like about midnight to 1AM for us.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 90/50. Not a PDS but close.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 540
PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BOW ECHOS AND SUPERCELLS SEEM TO BE THE
GREATEST RISK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...HART

[cycloneye]

Here are the specific areas in watch #10:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
037-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-
071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-
105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-
139-141-145-147-149-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.130129T2340Z-130130T0700Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT GREENE
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.130129T2340Z-130130T0700Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC069-155-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.130129T2340Z-130130T0700Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC089-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.130129T2340Z-130130T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MCCURTAIN
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TORNADO WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-300700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0010.130129T2340Z-130130T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...MEG...JAN...

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
ARC113-127-300015-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0004.130129T2347Z-130130T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 539 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE WILHELMINA...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MENA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WALDRON... BEAUCHAMP... Y CITY...
WINFIELD... RICH MTN... PARKS...
NEEDMORE... HON... ELM PARK...
EAGLETON... CEDAR CREEK... BOLES...
ACORN... WOLF PINNACLE... WALDRON MUNI ARPT...
WALDRON LAKE... SHILOH... ROUND TOP MTN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9411 3481 9375 3460 9428 3467 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 224DEG 38KT 3471 9424

$$

57

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
ARC017-300045-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0005.130130T0010Z-130130T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAKE VILLAGE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 610 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE VILLAGE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE VILLAGE AND MCMILLAN CORNER BY 620 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 9124 3351 9118 3344 9123 3345 9117
3350 9117 3347 9112 3343 9114 3341 9121
3339 9119 3339 9112 3345 9106 3342 9106
3313 9140 3317 9146 3328 9146 3352 9130
3352 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 214DEG 48KT 3324 9138

$$

BYB