Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUE THEN PULL
EAST OF 60W WED WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE WEEK
AND HOLD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
DIVERGENT SIDE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
AND APPROACHING SHEARLINE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MON-TUE WITH DRYING COMMENCING ON WED AS AREA BECOMES
UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF JET STREAK AS
TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. SHOWERS THOUGH WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AS PWAT REMAIN LOW BUT EXPECT A COUPLE OF VERY COOL AND
CLOUDY DAYS WITH THINGS IMPROVING WED. NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF PR
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS UNDER A COOL
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TUE AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC. WHILE MODELS SHOW PWAT INCREASING THU AND FRI WITH REMNANTS
OF A WANING FRONT AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SO BELIEVE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BDRY ARE BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS.

EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PWAT FCST TO DROP BELOW 0.75 INCHES OR WELL
BELOW TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT BUT CIGS BECOME BKN-OVC040 MON WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND WILL BE SUBSIDING LATE
TONIGHT. BREAKERS OF 10 TO 14 FT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AFTER SWELLS SUBSIDE WINDS INCREASE TUE RAISING
SEAS TO 7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...MAINLY NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE TAIL OF A JET ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PASS TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER JET OF AROUND 70 KNOTS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA. A WEAK
EAST-WEST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEARLINE WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS DECAYING BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSED INTO PUERTO RICO
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT LEAVING OVER ONE QUARTER INCH
IN A FEW PLACES ACCORDING TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR. THE GFS SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TODAY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
FORCES A SHEARLINE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHEARLINE AND ARE LIKELY TO
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE ISLAND UNDER THE STRONGER
WINDS. ON SATURDAY THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS EARLIER AND NOT AS DRY. IN THE
MEANTIME...HOWEVER...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND CLEARING WILL PASS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARLINE
THAT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z. ONLY VCSH EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME
OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND TISX WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST OVER PUERTO
RICO TILL AT LEAST 28/20Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE WITH WINDS UP TO 70
KTS AT 40K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FEET
WHILE SEAS AT THE INNER BUOY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FEET. THEREFORE
HAVE CANCELED BOTH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEAS GENERATED BY LOCAL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE ENTRY OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WATERS TO
THE NORTH AND EXPECT 7-FOOT SEAS AGAIN IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK THERE AND SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AFTER TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 73 / 40 30 40 50
STT 85 72 84 74 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

January 28 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:41 a.m.
 6:00 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:46 a.m.
 6:05 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:47 a.m.
 6:06 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH
THE TAIL OF A JET ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH BY
MIDWEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...A
SHEARLINE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA...BRINGING FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES...AFFECTING MOST OF
THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS. MOST OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARLINE JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS/PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
IS THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING TONIGHT BUT SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH CIGS OVC040 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SFC WINDS LIKELY
TO STAY UP AT JBQ/JSJ AND IST AT LEAST 10KT AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. JPS/JMZ AND ISX ARE MORE SHELTERED AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING
IN SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710. SCA CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE PEAK IN
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 73 83 / 30 40 40 40
STT 72 84 74 85 / 30 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It will be a Tuesday with a mix of clouds,scattered showers with some sunshine as a front gets close to the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST TUE JAN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHEARLINE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. WHILE
THE SHEARLINE MAY MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND ESTABLISHES BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STARTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FROM
THE NORTH DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHEARLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT BEHIND THE SHEARLINE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.

STARTING ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN...BRINGING MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...A SHEAR LINE 300 MILES NNE OF TJSJ IS MOVING AT ABOUT 18
KNOTS AND INTO THE FCST AREA AS OF 29/05Z. THIS WILL BRING INCRG
CLDS AND SHRA TO SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PR NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH ATTENDANT AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS BEGINNING ARND 29/07Z WITH THE PRECEDING CLD COVER AND
ENDING BTWN 30/06-09Z BY CURRENT ESTIMATES AFT SHEARLINE PASSES. MID
LYRS WILL BCM BKN FIRST FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF LOWER CLDS AS SHEARLINE
PASSES. LLVL WNDS ENE 5-20 KTS INCRG TO 10 TO 25 KTS BY 29/15Z WITH
LCLY HIR GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCAL BUOY DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
TODAY...CAUSING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WHILE THE SAN JUAN BUOY IS
REPORTING SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FEET...BUOY 41044 TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS AROUND 7 FEET FOR THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 60 50 40 30
STT 84 73 84 75 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

January 29 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 6:00 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 6:05 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 6:06 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST TUE JAN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE A LONG FETCH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW DISORGANIZED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE A
RESULT OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
ALONG 20N. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS OF PR. THIS COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. GFS AND NCEP WRF SUGGEST
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OF THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE
PROMOTES AN STABLE AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
INTERVALS OF ISOLD-SCT PASSING LOW LEVEL CLD LAYERS MAINLY BTW
FL020-FL090 WITH FEW-SCT PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA AT LEAST TIL 30/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST SEAS
BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES.
ALL OF THESE WAVES ARE MAINLY WIND WAVES GENERATED LOCALLY ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. BUOY 41043 NE OF PR MEASURED UP
TO 8 FEET AT 2 PM AST. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 82 / 50 40 30 50
STT 73 84 75 84 / 30 30 30 60

[Macrocane]

It has been warmer than normal since Sunday but that is expected to change on Thursday as a new cold front arrives to Central America:

GAP WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON WED WITH A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REACH GALE
FORCE BY WED NIGHT...UP TO 45 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WITH GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THU
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO
HELP TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE (10M
WINDS) IS CAPPED AT 45 KT ALTHOUGH THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY
FOR MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS (30M GUIDANCE WINDS ARE UP TO
50-65 KT) WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE WARNING
NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED PRIOR TO THE EVENT.

NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WEAKER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA
TO THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THU EVENING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA...BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY FRI.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The variable weather will continue today thru tommorow with drier conditions for the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE LOCAL AREA REGION BY
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE A LONG FETCH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BREEZY AND SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW.
THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS...NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL. FOR
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER STARTING ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER INTERVALS
OF ISOLD-SCT PASSING LOW LEVEL CLD LAYERS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL090
WITH FEW-SCT PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA. INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AS THE DAY GOES ON. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST NEARSHORE BUOY DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SEAS
ARE CHOPPY AT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION...30/00Z SWAN MODEL RUN SUGGESTED THAT THE INCREASE IN SEAS TO
7 FEET FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND AROUND THE USVI WILL BE AFTER
31/06Z. FOR THAT REASON...FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS WERE KEPT UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 73 / 30 30 50 50
STT 84 74 84 73 / 30 30 60 30

[cycloneye]

January 30 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 6:01 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 6:06 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 6:07 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. All indications are that a drier period will arrive by next Friday and last thru early next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL RELOCATE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LONG FETCH EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BREEZY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW
FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE ORIENTED MAINLY WEST TO EAST
ALONG 20 NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FRAGMENTS/PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PWAT MINIMA OF 0.85 INCHES AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND
800 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LARGE AREA OF SHRA ON SATELLITE N OF NORTHERN ANTILLES
WILL PASS OVER PR/USVI TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU...AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP FOR THE SEASON. SOME TEMPO INCLUDED IN 18Z
TAFS BUT MORE MAY BE NEEDED LATER WHEN TIMING IS BETTER KNOWN. SOME
MTN OBSCG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/THU. LLVL WIND TO FL150 ENE-NE 15-25
KT BCMG E ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOCAL BUOYS MEASURED WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 16-18 KTS THIS
MORNING TO 18-22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS BUILDING FROM 5 TO 7
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS...EXCLUDING THE NEARSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 30 50 50 10
STT 74 84 73 84 / 30 60 30 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST WED JAN 30 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS
EVENING DEPICTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING
FROM TIME TO TIME THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS WERE THE RESULT OF THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ENHANCED BY A SEGMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET JUST NORTH NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE CIRCULATION
OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY WITH A GENERAL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO RESUME AGAIN OVER THE FA BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF SHRA ON SATELLITE N OF NORTHERN ANTILLES
AND APCHG NE COAST OF PR WILL PASS OVER PR/USVI TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THU...AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP FOR THE
SEASON. EXPECT INTERMITTANT SHRA OVER ALL AREAS NOW THRU BYD 01/02Z
EXCEPT S OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PR WHERE OCNL SHRA WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY BTWN 31/15-24Z. LLVL WIND TO FL150 ENE-NE 15-25 KT
BCMG E ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST COASTAL AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND
HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOCAL BUOYS MEASURED WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 16-18 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 18-22 KTS THIS EVENING AND SEAS BUILDING FROM 5 TO 7
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS...EXCLUDING THE NEARSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE.

[Macrocane]

Here comes the cold again:

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...PUSHING E
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT. A DENSER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC
THU...AND STRONG GALE FORCE BY 12-18 UTC THU. STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL
SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS (925 MB WINDS AND
30M GUIDANCE WINDS ARE UP TO 50-55 KT) WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE WARNING NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED PRIOR TO THE
EVENT. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS EVENT PEAKING
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC THU...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO UP
TO 18 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WEAKER WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LARGER AREA OF THESE WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT JUST
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF
PANAMA BY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 9 FT
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.

[Macrocane]

HPC Discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JAN 29/00UTC: POLAR TROUGH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DOMAIN MOVES TO THE CENTRAL USA-NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS CYCLE. THROUGH 48 HRS...AS THE TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST A
RIDGE TO THE EAST...IT IS TO START LIFTING WHILE GRADUALLY
EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A
PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONT. THROUGH 24 HRS THE FRONT IS TO SURGE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA-THE GULF TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...WITH FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES OF 30-35KT TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. BY 36 HRS IT IS
TO MOVE TO SOUTH FLORIDA-THE YUCATAN-CAMPECHE/VERACRUZ...AND BY 48
HRS IT IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA. BY 60-72
HRS IT IS TO PULL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. PREFRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF 20-25KT
ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. BY 72-96 HRS THE FRONT IS TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA...WHILE TRAILING TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. NORTHERLIES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL
AMERICA ARE TO PERSIST. THE SURGING NORTHERLIES ARE TO ALSO FAVOR
A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE...WITH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-NORTHERN
HONDURAS BY 48-60 HRS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA/JAMAICA-NICARAGUA BY 72-84 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE IT
RETROGRESSES TO NORTHERN HONDURAS/WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THE POLAR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLIES
WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY BY 36-48 HRS. THROUGH 72-84 HRS THIS DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER GUATEMALA EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH MOST
INTENSE ON DAY 02...WHILE ACROSS CUBA IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ARE TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM/DAY. THROUGH DAY 04 THIS WILL DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL PRESS AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DISPLACE
THIS AXIS FARTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OVER THIS AXIS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 48 HRS...AND BY 72 HRS
IT IS TO LIMIT TO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN-CENTRAL AMERICA. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST RIDGE PATTERN TO SPLIT IN TWO
CELLS...WITH ONE TO ESTABLISH OVER MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
ONE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SLOWLY PULLS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND LATER IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WHILE BUILDING NORTH ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST
USA. BUT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PULLS AWAY...ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
CAP IS TO GRADUALLY WANE...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/GUATEMALA. A SIMILAR IMPACT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE OTHER RIDGE...AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...IT IS TO FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE TROPICS ALONG 20N 50W TO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES/NORTH OF THE GUIANAS. AS THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
WEST EVOLVES...TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS TO GRADUALLY SPLIT IN
TWO...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF QUICKLY LIFTING WHILE BOTTOM HALF
EVOLVES INTO A BROAD CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH IS TO THEN GRADUALLY PULL AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. AT
LOW LEVELS...A WANING POLAR FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS TO
FRONTOLIZE DURING THE DAY...WITH COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN TO QUICKLY
WANE. THIS ALSO FAVORS A SHEAR LINE...FORECAST TO PERSIST AS IT
SURGES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN
GUIANAS EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WANING FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL FAVOR AN AREA
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THAT DETACHES AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND ADVECTS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...MEANWHILE
FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA THROUGH DAY O4 WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...THE SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. OVER NORTHEAST VENEZUELA TO
THE NORTHERN GUIANAS IT IS TO THEN RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA THROUGH 36 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THEREAFTER.

SOUTH OVER THE DOMAIN...A TUTT IS MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W-80W TO
20S. THE TROUGH REACHED MAXIMA AMPLITUDE...AND BASE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY PULL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS IT LIFT...THE TROUGH IS TO FOCUS ITS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS
ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
COINCIDE WITH WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS
COLOMBIA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL FAVOR GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ANDEAN REGION...WITH MOST
ACTIVE EXPECTED BETWEEN EJE CAFETERO AND THE CAUCA VALLEY.
INITIALLY...IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH DAY 04.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE AND ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BREEZY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MORNING HOURS...THE NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE USVI. IN
THE LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
START TO AFFECT LAND AREAS IN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS THE
NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE
THE GFS MODEL KEPT WESTERN PUERTO RICO FAIRLY DRY. GIVEN THE SPEED
IN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WHICH IS AROUND 15 KNOTS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
PASS BY.

SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED STARTING ON
FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MOMENTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SHRA
ACTIVITY PASSES BY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS WELL AS
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN WATERS DUE TO WIND GENERATES WAVES. WIND IS EXPECTED
TO REACH 22 KNOTS AND SEAS MAY BUILD AS MUCH AS 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE REST OF THE WATERS NOT IN THE
ADVISORY HAVE A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6
FEET OR WINDS OF AT LEAST 18 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 70 70 40 20
STT 84 73 83 74 / 60 60 10 20

[cycloneye]

January 31 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:40 a.m.
 6:01 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:45 a.m.
 6:06 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:46 a.m.
 6:07 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER IT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND SHIFT EASTWARD BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW
LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WILL QUICKLY SURGE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED SHOWERS QUICKLY
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY PUSH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
EXPECT CONTINUED VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SUGGESTED VALUES WERE AROUND 1.30
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WERE ALL CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN PWAT
VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE STILL LOOKING FOR A
DRYER AIR MASS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 01/16Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA.
LLVL WNDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FM THE E AT 15-20 KTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SFC WND GUSTS NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATED WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 17 AND 22 KTS...AND SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS...EXCLUDING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO WAS CANCELLED
EARLIER TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS AT THE BUOY 41115 WERE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO CONTINUED CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 71 82 / 50 40 30 20
STT 74 83 72 84 / 50 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

The dry season is now starting in PR and the fire danger increases.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRI AND HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE COLLAPSES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOMALOUS
DEEP TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM ENTERS THE WRN ATLC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS...ERN PR AND USVI WITH REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO AN OLD FRONTAL BDRY. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FRI WILL
RESULT IN SHARP DRYING TOMORROW FROM EAST TO WEST. BELIEVE MODELS
ARE OVERDOING PRECIP CHANCES LIKE THEY DID TODAY SO EXPECT MAINLY
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH ONLY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT THAT HOLDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR MASS WITH PWAT AOB TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES VERY LOW VALUES
OF H850 THETAE...K INDICES AND 0-2KM RH SUGGESTING STRONG
DOWNWARD/SINKING MOTION THAT EVEN CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME TRYING
TO DEVELOP. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MUCH NIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS REALLY NEXT WED AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES WITH UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 01/16Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA. LLVL WNDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY FM THE EAST AT 15-20 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN RAPID
EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MODELS INDICATING WATER VAPOR
CONTENT DROPPING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT
IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS PEAKED TODAY AND WILL
BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND. STABILITY IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY FIRES BUT
THE LONG DURATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS
AND HIGH FUEL LOAD RAISES A LOT OF FLAGS AND CONCERNS. DON`T
EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO RECOVER AT NIGHT DUE TO EXTREME DRYNESS.


&&

.CLIMATE...AT CHARLOTTE AMALIE JAN 2013 WILL END AS THE DRIEST ON
RECORD WITH ONLY 0.55 INCHES OF RAIN. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST JAN ON
RECORD WAS IN 2007 WITH 0.76 INCHES.

AT CHRISTIANSTED...JAN 2013 WILL END AS THE TENTH DRIEST ON RECORD
WITH 1.05 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JAN WAS IN 2011 WITH 0.49
INCHES OF RAIN.

AT SJU LMM INTL ARPT...JAN 2013 WILL END AS THE TWELFTH DRIEST ON
RECORD WITH 1.78 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JAN ON RECORD WAS IN
1978 WITH 0.31 INCHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 82 / 40 10 0 0
STT 74 83 74 84 / 40 10 0 10

[Macrocane]

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A DENSE AIR MASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 30-40
KT WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY A RECENT OCEANSAT PASS. ACCOMPANYING
SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE UP TO 18 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT
SHIP OBSERVATIONS OR ALTIMETER PASSES THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI...DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID SAT MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 30 KT BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
GULF OF PANAMA AS MEASURED BY A RECENT WINDSAT PASS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...DIMINISHING BY SAT
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
LEWITSKY

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST FRI FEB 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BIG PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
INDICATED PW VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 0.75 INCHES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS VERY LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKEN. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OR IN THE
VICINITY OF TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ...TIST...TISX...AND TJPS THROUGH
16Z. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE 15 TO 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 NEAR 200 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WAS
SHOWING 7 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ
710 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUOY 42060 WHICH IS LOCATED IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEAS SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX...WAS SHOWING 8 FEET
SEAS WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT ALSO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE(AMZ722) AND THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS(AMZ732).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 83 71 / 10 0 0 10
STT 83 74 84 74 / 10 0 10 10