2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[cycloneye]

Here is a video of a tornado in Adairsville,Georgia on January 30. You can see the flashes as the twister hits the power lines.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X87Uu3_S ... detailpage

[cycloneye]

Photo of the strong tornado in Adairsville,Georgia.

[cycloneye]

Here is the before and after photo of the damage to a manufacturing plant caused by the Adairsville,Georgia Tornado.

[cycloneye]

The January 29-30 severe weather event spawned 14 tornadoes (Preliminary) but the most reports were about the wind and the streak of no deaths ended on 220 days as a fatalitie occured.

[cycloneye]

Here are more photos of the strong Adairsville Tornado and the damage that caused. Preliminary information has it as a high end EF-3 classification.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Would not be surprised if it was upgraded to an EF4. Would be the first time in Georgia history that a tornado of that magnitude has occurred in the month of January.

[cycloneye]

Would not be surprised if it was upgraded to an EF4. Would be the first time in Georgia history that a tornado of that magnitude has occurred in the month of January.

What makes you think SPC may even upgrade more than a EP-3?

[cycloneye]

Adairsville Tornado was a high end EP-3

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=atlpnsffc

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
516 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR WEDNESDAY 1/30/2013 TORNADO EVENT...
...ONE TORNADO IDENTIFIED SO FAR IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

.OVERVIEW...
A TEAM OF METEOROLOGIST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PEACHTREE CITY GEORGIA CONTINUES TO SURVEY THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHWEST BARTOW AND
CENTRAL GORDON COUNTIES FROM APPROXIMATELY 1115 AM TO 1155 AM ON
WEDNESDAY... JANUARY 30 2013. THE SURVEY IS ONGOING... BUT THE
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS SO FAR INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING.

ADAIRSVILLE TORNADO...

RATING: HIGH END EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 160 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 24.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1 KNOWN SO FAR
INJURIES: NUMEROUS

START DATE: JAN 30 2013
START TIME: APPROXIMATELY 1115 AM
START LOCATION: 6 MI SW ADAIRSVILLE/BARTOW COUNTY
START LAT/LON: 34.3097N/-85.0094W

END DATE: JAN 30 2013
END TIME: UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
END LOCATION: 13.4 MI NE CALHOUN OR NEAR OAKMAN/GORDON COUNTY
END LAT/LON: 34.5878N/-84.7402W

AT LEAST 202 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES WERE IMPACTED FROM THIS STRONG...
LONG TRACKED EF-3 TORNADO IN GORDON COUNTY ALONE. OF THESE 202
HOMES... 66 WERE MOBILE HOMES... 110 HAD MAJOR DAMAGE... 30 WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED... AND ANOTHER 70 HAD MINOR DAMAGE. THE
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT IN BARTOW COUNTY IS STILL ONGOING... AND
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE INFORMATION WILL FOLLOW THIS REPORT.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

[cycloneye]

Here are the latest stats for the 2013 season.So far 37 Tornadoes haved occured but the numbers may change in the comming days when the analysis of the tornadoes of January 29-30 is complete.

Code: Select all

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH WED JAN 30 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013

       ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES...    NUMBER OF       KILLER
                                    TORNADO DEATHS  TORNADOES
    ..2013.. 2012 2011 2010 3YR               3YR             3YR
    PREL ACT  ACT  ACT  ACT  AV 13  12  11 10  AV  13 12 11 10 AV
JAN  37    -  79   16   30   42  1   2   0  0   1   1  2  0  0  1
FEB   -    -  57   63    1   40  -  15   1  0   5   -  7  1  0  3
MAR   -    - 154   75   33   87  -  42   1  1  14   - 10  1  1  4
APR   -    - 206  758  139  368  -   6 363 11 127   -  1 43  2 15
MAY   -    - 121  326  304  250  -   0 178  7  62   -  0  9  4  4
JUN   -    - 110  160  324  198  -   4   3 12   6   -  2  1  6  3
JUL   -    -  37  103  146   95  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  1  0
AUG   -    -  38   57   55   50  -   0   2  1   1   -  0  2  1  1
SEP   -    -  39   51   57   49  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  2  1
OCT   -    -  37   23  108   56  -   0   0  0   0   -  0  0  0  0
NOV   -    -   7*  44   53   35  -   0   5  0   2   -  0  2  0  1
DEC   -    -  51*  15   32   33  -   0   0  9   3   -  0  0  4  1
---  --   -- ---  ---- ---- ---- -  -- --- -- ---   - -- -- -- --
SUM  37    - 936* 1691 1282 1303 1  69 553 45 222   1 22 59 21 34

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ACTUAL TORNADOES. FINAL VALUES WILL
BE ENTERED WHEN STORM DATA IS PUBLISHED LATER IN 2013.

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNTS AND ACTUAL COUNTS FROM
PRIOR YEARS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

PREL = 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.
ACT  = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.

..CARBIN..01/31/2013


[cycloneye]

This January has turned out to be the 4th most active in history but has the chance to go up to 3rd after the analysis of the 29-30 outbreak is complete. Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about this.

One of the most unusual weeks of January weather in U.S. history has drawn to a close, and residents of the Southeast are cleaning up after a ferocious 2-day outbreak of severe weather. NWS damage surveys have found that at 34 tornadoes touched down on January 29 - 30, making it the 4th largest January tornado outbreak since records began in 1950. With another ten preliminary tornadoes yet to be confirmed, the outbreak may move into 3rd place once all the damage surveys are done. Here are the largest January tornado outbreaks since 1950:

129 1/21 - 1/22 1999
50 1/7 - 1/8 2008
40 1/9 1/10 1975
34 1/29 - 1/30 2013

[cycloneye]

The Wikipedia page of the 2013 Severe Season is good to look at because of the many stats it has so I posted it on the first post of thread so any member can look for it in an easy way and by doing that you dont have to look for it from page to page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_ ... arly_total

[Ntxw]

The southeast has definitely become the new tornado capital of the world, at least in the past 3+ years. It seems the drought in the plains has shifted the dryline setups further east since 2011 and this spring this is the place to watch once again.

[cycloneye]

The southeast has definitely become the new tornado capital of the world, at least in the past 3+ years. It seems the drought in the plains has shifted the dryline setups further east since 2011 and this spring this is the place to watch once again.

That is a good point. And if the trend for more severe weather goes more east in 2013, it would be very worrisom as more larger populated cities come into focus.

[brunota2003]

Don't forget this tornado:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0

This is the first documented tornado to occur during the month of January in the National Weather Service Jackson, KY forecast area.

[cycloneye]

Don't forget this tornado:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0

This is the first documented tornado to occur during the month of January in the National Weather Service Jackson, KY forecast area.

Yes,we tend to focus much more on the stronger Tornadoes above EF-2 but those EF-0 ones can do plenty of damage and cause fatalities.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the next severe weather event may take place in a week and a half. Let's see the future runs by the models to see consistency on this.

[cycloneye]

SPC says is still too low the probability about the next severe weather event.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH REGARD TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL...IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO RECENT
RUNS. WHAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
EMANATE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND IN THE S-CNTRL CONUS NEXT WEEKEND...SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EVIDENT IN THE D7-8 TIME FRAME. BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT
ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 02/03/2013

[cycloneye]

The models continue to show a potential severe weather event for early next week.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest outlook by SPC about a possible severe event for early next week.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CST MON FEB 04 2013

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
ON D4/THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD
REMAINS FOCUSED NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH REGARD TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST D4-5/THU-FRI. HOWEVER...BELOW-AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EMANATE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC DEPICT A DEEPER/FARTHER SE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTION IN THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D7/SUN THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS. THESE DEPICTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SHARP COLD
FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RICH WRN GULF
MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD TO AT LEAST THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...ANY PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE MAY BE DELAYED
UNTIL D6/SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON D5/FRI. GIVEN THIS...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY REMAIN
DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER WRN GULF AIR MASS AND THE LARGELY PARALLEL
NATURE OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD RENDER A
RELATIVELY MUDDLED SEVERE WEATHER SETUP. AROUND A QUARTER OF THE
INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION OF THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALBEIT 12-24 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/CMC.
THUS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT ARE YET WARRANTED.

..GRAMS.. 02/04/2013

[cycloneye]

The latest SPC outlook for early next week is not so good for a big outbreak but that could change so stay tuned. There is a thread for this possible event.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114631&hilit=&p=2298832#p2298832


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2013

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD REMAINS FOCUSED THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL CONUS. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EWD EVOLUTION OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DO DEPICT RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THEMSELVES...AS THE
ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON D6/SUN. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GEFS IS STILL LARGE AND ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF
THE GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/CMC
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS TIMING DIFFERENCES.

EVEN FOLLOWING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC SCENARIO...A PRONOUNCED
INCREASE IN WRN GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL D5/SAT.
TIMING THE EJECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD ALSO BE
PROBLEMATIC /NOT OPTIMAL FOR THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE/. ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY ENSUE ON SAT NIGHT AND COULD YIELD ABUNDANT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NWD DEGREE OF ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW STILL
APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE RICHER WRN GULF AIR MASS.
THESE ASPECTS COMBINED WITH THE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES RENDER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES REMAINING BELOW 30 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 02/05/2013