Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Tireman4]

OK, so it is the GFS. OK, so it is the GFS beyond 300 hours. OK, so it is the GFS predicting weather two weeks from now. But what the heck, it's all we got. Yes that is a 1040mb-plus high coming down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains!!

Look, enjoy, get excited. Winter shall return to Texas in February!!

I want to get excited. I really do, but Wxman57 has done it. The Dark Lord of Summer has sucked all the dreams of snow and such out of me. It is over. I am done. Bury me in the desert and call me cacti.....sigh...

[wxman57]

OK, so it is the GFS. OK, so it is the GFS beyond 300 hours. OK, so it is the GFS predicting weather two weeks from now. But what the heck, it's all we got. Yes that is a 1040mb-plus high coming down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains!!

Look, enjoy, get excited. Winter shall return to Texas in February!!

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/6420/12zgfs850mbtslpp12count.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

That's the reason the GFS is forecasting lows in the upper 30s and highs in the low 50s here around the 14th/15th of February. I do have 52 as my "coolest high" at IAH for February, so I need one of those cold days for the contest.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

OK, so it is the GFS. OK, so it is the GFS beyond 300 hours. OK, so it is the GFS predicting weather two weeks from now. But what the heck, it's all we got. Yes that is a 1040mb-plus high coming down the spine of the Rockies into the Southern Plains!!

Look, enjoy, get excited. Winter shall return to Texas in February!!

I want to get excited. I really do, but Wxman57 has done it. The Dark Lord of Summer has sucked all the dreams of snow and such out of me. It is over. I am done. Bury me in the desert and call me cacti.....sigh...

(((((Tireman)))))

[wxman57]

SaskatchewanScreamer,

Out of curiosity, I made a couple of meteograms for Moose Jaw to see what the GFS was forecasting as far as your temps over the next 2 weeks. Quite a warm up this week, up to near freezing. Note that the second graphic does NOT represent highs/lows but temperatures at 6AM and 6PM CST. I guess you're about an hour behind that time zone. Highs will tend to be a few degrees warmer (less cold for you) than the peaks on the 2nd graphic. Lows in the upper teens to low 20s is quite a warm-up over lows close to 30F below zero - 50 degrees warmer! Shorts and short-sleeve weather for you?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Thank you ever so much Wxman57!!!!! Shorts and t-shirt weather here for sure! The above is the first time I've ever received something from a meteorologist so am feeling very happy here! And your news just adds icing on the cake (not for those below us though ).

I'll be printing the above off at work and will tack it on the staff bulletin board (just worked a 1/2 day today). The drops, mid Feb., may lead to colder temps but at that time of year we really don't care.....we know OMW is in his dying days!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

This morning I passed on your earlier news re the changes coming up and all were pleased. However when I mentioned Houston had just been in the 90's, the "flash drought" just below us (and all the way down) and the Kansas storm chaser that has set up a home base here, all were truly wishing we could have sent the winter storm of the century (of varying degrees) all the way down.

I hope you folks and everywhere below us get good rains in the coming weeks!

[wxman57]

The high only hit 81 degrees here in Houston, not quite the 90s. Feel free to keep your cold up there in Canada (or share it with New England). I'll take a look at your temps occasionally when I see something interesting and will post additional graphics. Maybe those near-freezing temps will allow some of the snow to melt.

[Ntxw]

We need cold air in the spring especially in the central plains or there will be no active thunderstorm season. A hot spring will beget more drought in plains and with no deep snow cover there either no soil moisture to help

[wxman57]

Checking the 12Z Euro's 850mb (5000 ft up) temperature anomaly forecast for North America you can see quite a warm-up in Canada and across the Plains states (cool-down in New England) by day 10. While these temps aren't at the surface, they are reflective of the type of airmass in the region and represent relative changes in surface temperatures.

Current:


Day 10:

[Portastorm]

The King (Euro) is dead. I wouldn't trust the Euro as far as I could throw it -- unless it forecasted an Arctic airmass descending south into Texas with a bowling ball 500mb low to our west moving over the state.

[Ntxw]

Pfft who needs the Euro when you have agreement between 12z and 18z GFS 300+ hours out! It has to be right, for sure!

[Portastorm]

Pfft who needs the Euro when you have agreement between 12z and 18z GFS 300+ hours out! It has to be right, for sure!

That's exactly right, Ntxw!

I have often said over the years that the 18z GFS beyond 300 hours is MONEY IN THE BANK!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You two !

The high only hit 81 degrees here in Houston, not quite the 90s. Feel free to keep your cold up there in Canada (or share it with New England). I'll take a look at your temps occasionally when I see something interesting and will post additional graphics. Maybe those near-freezing temps will allow some of the snow to melt.

Thank you for any heads-up info you might see

I hope so as we *need* to have a gradual melt and soak in here.....what we are afraid of is a sudden warm up with snow/rain.....we have too much white stuff around which in 1974 led to the worst flooding ever for my city.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Which city(ies) did hit the 90's down there recently? I know I read one did.

Found them in the recording breaking highs thread:

McAllen TX 90F tied 1947
Corpus Christi TX 91F **all time Jan record tie Jan 30 1971**
Laredo TX 94F

[Fehize]

I can attest San Juan, TX, Pharr, TX, and Alamo, TX [by the McAllen region] hit 92-93 yesterday. Although this small front made us drop to the 70s, it sure did make my house a whole lot more bare-able.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my first take at presenting a weather forecast in front of a computer/TV and my classmates in my Broadcast Meteorology class at Texas A&M University. By the end of this semester, hopefully I will be much better at this!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egcwywUZCMc

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I can attest San Juan, TX, Pharr, TX, and Alamo, TX [by the McAllen region] hit 92-93 yesterday. Although this small front made us drop to the 70s, it sure did make my house a whole lot more bare-able.

Oh Fehize my sincere sympathies! I wish that front would stick around for you but I know it was moving like the hounds of hell were chasing it.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose doesn't think Winter is done yet:

"I was looking at some long-range forecast data today and there are indications we could see some much colder air spreading into Texas the second week of February. I don’t think winter is over with just yet. Stay tuned."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[gpsnowman]

Bob rose always plays it cool with his winter weather obs for Texas. Nothing ever too extreme. Even keel dude. I hope he is right.

Y

[Ntxw]

Second half of 0z GFS sure is something isn't it? Zonal flow? I think not! Of course if you believe it (has to be right since it favors cold!). Portastorm has been hard at work lately!