WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.9S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON A 020422Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE
SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STH
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AS
TC 13S TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD, THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON THE LEFT OF AND
UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. //
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