Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Texas Snowman]

GFS ensembles agree with the operational...very cold and wet pattern setting up for the country starting around Valentines Day

Shhhh...don't tell anybody!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and where is the cold coming from?????

[Ntxw]

and where is the cold coming from?????

The subtropical jet and the rest of your cold air. No need to worry we're doing you a favor by draining what's left

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and where is the cold coming from?????

The subtropical jet and the rest of your cold air. No need to worry we're doing you a favor by draining what's left

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!

This winter can't end soon enough (for us )!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

The conditions, as of yesterday, here.....please, oh please, take it!

[Tejas89]

Been in Chicagoland for almost a week. They're joking that we brought the snow with us from texas. el-oh-el. It's been a (relatively) snowless couple of winters here.

Anyway, fun weather that we'd consider a historical event... A parade of little clippers is dumping 1-2" at a time. Just before sunrise Friday, it was 1 above with ice crystals floating against a beautiful, magenta sky. I'm in the far suburbs, near the cornfields, so it's quite pretty now with more snow this morning. Colleagues think I'm crazy for going to run one morning at a nearby forest preserve/park. Sadly, the gate was closed!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Come up here Tejas89 ....... we will be happy if you take this back with you!
Also shot yesterday: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/9826226/regina/upload/2/786

In fact we will wrap it up and help you load it.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and the current weather in Calgary http://www.flickr.com/photos/92621846@N04/8440644302/in/photostream

[GaryHughes]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

[Portastorm]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

Yes Gary, I certainly have noticed as have some others around here. There is now strong evidence via the operational modeling runs, the ensembles, and the teleconnections that a large pattern change will be occuring on or around that period. Texas will see below to much below normal temps with precipitation chances. Very hard for me to believe that somewhere in north Texas won't see snow or ice out of this change.

Those who proclaimed winter was over for Texas should be researching best recipes for how to enjoy their crow.

[GaryHughes]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

Yes Gary, I certainly have noticed as have some others around here. There is now strong evidence via the operational modeling runs, the ensembles, and the teleconnections that a large pattern change will be occuring on or around that period. Texas will see below to much below normal temps with precipitation chances. Very hard for me to believe that somewhere in north Texas won't see snow or ice out of this change.

Those who proclaimed winter was over for Texas should be researching best recipes for how to enjoy their crow.

I totally agree Portastorm, it's going to look like a Alfred Hitchcock movie around here if this all comes to fruition!

[wxman57]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

You must be looking at another 6Z run than I am. Last night's run has no snow at all in north Texas through 384 hrs. I do notice a pattern change - quite a flow of warm Pacific air into western Canada beyond 10 days. Here's a map indicating snow accumulations for that period you mentioned:

[Portastorm]

OK, let's take a look at some of the 0z ensemble guidance which supports my viewpoint that winter, indeed, is not over for the State of Texas. First we'll look at the GFS ensembles, followed by the Euro, followed by the GGEM (Canadian).

GFS 500mb anomalies for North America:



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GFS 850mb temps for NA:



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Euro 500mb flow at 10 days:



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500mb GGEM flow:



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GGEM 850mb temps:



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[GaryHughes]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

You must be looking at another 6Z run than I am. Last night's run has no snow at all in north Texas through 384 hrs. I do notice a pattern change - quite a flow of warm Pacific air into western Canada beyond 10 days. Here's a map indicating snow accumulations for that period you mentioned:

[img]http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/

gfs/3/maps/2013/02/03/06/GFS_3_2013020306_F264_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png[/img]

Looking at today's 06 Utc at 240 hours animated loop dprog @240 Hr

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe:

@BigJoeBastardi: Been watching ECMWF ensembles shift to the GFS! Big switch in what usually happens. Warned the plains 4 days ago worst of winter coming.

@BigJoeBastardi: Pattern challenging as I see other forecasters now starting to look at MJO implications.Europe cold again was missed 10 days ago by models.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Captured you evil lot on my camera:

seeing the protected Turkey Vulture up here (and there were 5 of them!!!) is extremely rare. 3 were captured in my pic.
The Turkey Vulture species receives special legal protections under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918 in the United States,[8] by the Convention for the Protection of Migratory Birds in Canada,[54] and by the Convention for the Protection of Migratory Birds and Game Mammals in Mexico.[54] In the USA it is illegal to take, kill, or possess Turkey Vultures, and violation of the law is punishable by a fine of up to $15,000 and imprisonment of up to six months.[53] It is listed as a species of Least Concern by the IUCN Red List. Populations appear to remain stable, and it has not reached the threshold of inclusion as a threatened species, which requires a decline of more than 30 percent in ten years or three generations.[1]

[Portastorm]

Calling us turkey vultures? Sheesh ... you're not doing much for improving international relations SS?!

We have plenty of 'em here in Texas. What we don't have plenty of is WINTER WEATHER!!! Yet.

[BigB0882]

Anyone noticed the 06z Gfs?Showing snow beginning Feruary 11-14 with some 12" totals across North Texas.

You must be looking at another 6Z run than I am. Last night's run has no snow at all in north Texas through 384 hrs. I do notice a pattern change - quite a flow of warm Pacific air into western Canada beyond 10 days. Here's a map indicating snow accumulations for that period you mentioned:

Thank you for pointing this out. I went and looked at the 6z and could not find any snow in North Texas except for a trace or so in the extreme northern panhandle. I assumed I was doing something wrong so I didn't comment. lol

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:uarrow:

Calling us turkey vultures? Sheesh ... you're not doing much for improving international relations SS?! .

as if you bunch of Turkeys are with your vulture type dreams!!!

They are as rarely sighted here ..... as it it would be to see you lot up here in the middle of our winter.

[GaryHughes]

I see them every day (we call them buzzards) always looking for something dead to swoop down on.... just like Wxman57 and his Heat mongering, summer loving buzzard friends do on our Winter Weather!