Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Big bust here, never went fully to snow... just a few flakes mixed with rain instead of the 2-4" predicted. Oh well, I made money at work so the day wasn't a total loss.

north of Birmingham got rocked(what I call tornado alley every other time of year), cars stranded on the interstate for hours

[Ntxw]

As Brent said it seems north of Birmingham were the winners. Totals from NWS. Biggest winners from the storm was in eastern Tennessee and high grounds of North Carolina and Virginia had reports of 6-12"



From Jesse Pharrell's blog at Accuwx

[knoxtnhorn]

No complaints here. We got a couple of inches here in Knoxville/Oak Ridge. Schools were closed at 1:30 on Thursday and no school today. Temps look to be dropping again after the weekend.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

Once more into the breach gentlemen.

1200 UTC GFS run shows me getting just under 1" of snow accumulation Friday, on top of some ice. It's close to being dramatically more.






The 1200 UTC NAM, however, has no such reservations. 3+".







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EST WED...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP ON FRI AS
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH COLDER WITH TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP FRI MORNING AS THE
HIGH CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER MORNING LOWS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS
FINALLY BRING WARM FRONT PRECIP INTO WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 15Z
FRI AND INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY 18Z FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
MUCH COLDER DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRI AS A COLD AIR DAMMING
WEDGE PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...HIGHS ON FRI WILL RUN NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX PRECIP EVENT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
H85-H7 LAYER WITH SUB/FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH
SLEET/ICE PELLETS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY EVENING WITH THE WEDGE ERODING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE WINTRY MIX PRECIP WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH DURING THIS EVENT. POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY LATE FRI MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF
BY LATE FRI EVENING.

[jenshops]

I am very new to winter forcasts because I used to live in Florida but now I live in the mountains of NC, more specific: Macon County. After the last storm I've concluded that forecasts are not very accurate at all, is the normal as far as snow. I was so excited when we were supposed to get 1-3" last storm and we did not see ONE SINGLE SNOWFLAKE .What is the best way to know what to expect for the weather?

[georgia_tech_swagger]

I am very new to winter forcasts because I used to live in Florida but now I live in the mountains of NC, more specific: Macon County. After the last storm I've concluded that forecasts are not very accurate at all, is the normal as far as snow. I was so excited when we were supposed to get 1-3" last storm and we did not see ONE SINGLE SNOWFLAKE .What is the best way to know what to expect for the weather?

Usually the GSP office is pretty accurate. They were betting there would be enough oomph left in the back half of the storm that by the time the cold front passed and it was cold enough it would change over into snow. The back half of the storm flopped spectacularly. Getting the timing down on late change over into wintry weather is very difficult even just hours before the storm arrives.

This looks like much more of a sure bet. The question is more what form of winter precipitation this will take.

[jenshops]

Thanks so much for the reply. I am hoping like crazy for snow, maybe enough to sled at the house, although I know that is highly unlikely. There's like a dome where I live that blocks out most of the snow but just up in the next town they get tons. I think it has to do with where the valley is situated surrounded by the mountains. Its still better than Florida!!

[georgia_tech_swagger]

00 UTC GFS and NAM are both converging towards a nasty freezing rain only event. It looks like the cold air in place isn't going to be cold enough to keep the entire column below freezing as the warm front moves in.

[Wurbus]

They are calling for anywhere between 1/4-3/4 inches of ice in and around the Knoxville, TN area tomorrow. Travel is going to be an absolute nightmare and I hope they will call off schools ahead of time since it isn't supposed to start until around 8-9am. Some places still have snow on the ground from the snow event last week! I'll be glad when it warms up next week!

[georgia_tech_swagger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

.....

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT RANGE IS
THE PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. WHAT WE HAVE FOR FRIDAY BOILS
DOWN TO A QPF PROBLEM.

LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT IS THOUGHT TO BE MOST CERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE
FCST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE LAKELANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TERMS OF THE THERMAL PROFILES
AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH BOTH. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT WARM
NOSE AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT AS PRECIP IS DEVELOPING
AND WORKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...MOST PLACES WILL SEE AN HOUR OF
SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING. EXCEPTIONS ARE N OF
I-40 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION FAILS TO PENETRATE. THAT KEEPS THE P-TYPE MORE LIKE
SLEET AND PERHAPS SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE SRN FRINGE SHOULD
SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING...AS WILL THE FAR WRN MTNS IN GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM TRAPPED COLD DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE LIKE
THE MTN VALLEYS AND THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE W OF I-26 BY THE TIME THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SO THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH PRECIP CAN WE EXPECT? ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE...THE MID AND UPPER FORCING SEEN ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE BEST QG FORCING...DPVA...AND Q CONVERGENCE ALL
MOVE PAST TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHO THE NAM DOES PROVIDE
FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY IMPARTING A QUICK SHOT WHEN
DECENT RATES ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL START OUT
VERY DRY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL BE LOST
TO EVAPORATION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
RESPECTABLE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM 295K TO 285K MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THE QUALITY OF THE FORCING DOWN LOW IS SUCH THAT
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
PUSH BACK THE ONSET...AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE WRN MTNS...LATE
MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT. SO PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE TIME OF THE BEST FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE SHOULD
KEEP IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN A HIGH AMOUNT.

A CONSIDERATION OF MODEL QPF SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SW MTNS OF
NC...WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARD PRECIP
TOTALS IN THE RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THAT
DOES NOT GIVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT EXPANDING THE WATCH. IF
THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PRECIP COULD EXCEED ONE QUARTER
INCH...A WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED...BUT A LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM/ 06Z
GFS/ 00Z ECMWF REVEALS A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP TOTALS. THUS...
PREFER TO MANAGE EXPECTATIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND
NOT EXPAND THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE...THINK WE ARE
LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. THERE IS ALSO
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER THE MTNS
EITHER...SO WE WILL LET THE WATCH RIDE.

THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE PULLS OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY SO THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

[southerngreen]

I can relate to jenshops problem in knowing what to expect - we are between chattanooga and murphy nc (just above the ga line) and the prediction vs reality is often large. add to that the fact that the weather predicted for Georgia can be radically different than what is predicted for TN so how can you tell which one will affect you? All you can do is bring in more wood and stock up on groceries!

[Ntxw]

NAM's view of the storm. Definitely nasty ice conditions for all of central and eastern Tennessee, much of NC, and higher elevations of north Georgia.

[knoxtnhorn]

It has begun. Weirdest thing. Apparently, the cold layer at the surface is really shallow. Therefore, the reverse of most winter storms in this area is occurring. In the lower elevations of the valley, we're getting ice. On the plateau and in the higher elevations, they're getting rain (for the most part).

BTW, school was cancelled early last night while the temp was above freezing and the sky was clear. That was also an odd thing but probably due more to the fact that our superintendent got blasted a couple of weeks ago for having school during a huge flood.

[Kennethb]

You know the winter is not going well when you cannot even get the GFS to produce a phantom/long range fantasy snow storm.

[MGC]

So far it has not been too bad of a winter here on the MGC. Tree pollen has been on the cars the past couple of mornings! Spring is right around the corner. I worked in the yard all day Saturday and got a slight sun burn.....I also noticed the grass was starting to show some green to it. Today I'm off to New Orleans to see a couple of Mardi Gras parades.........MGC

[cycloneye]

This is a heads up for those who live in the deep southern states as a Moderate Risk was issued by SPC for Tuesday. Those members who may be interested to read the SPC update can go to the 2013 U.S Severe Weather thread at the U.S & Caribbean Weather forum for more information.

[cycloneye]

A heads up about the severe weather expected for today thru tommorow. There is a new thread that has been made to follow all the information. Go here

[Kennethb]

Vegetation and wildlife are usually indicators of temperature zones and impacts and effects of winter temperatures.

Here in Baton Rouge to indicate how we have not had too much in the way of freezes, usually by the middle of December we have had temps in the mid 20's that I put out bags of leaves on top of my various tender plants. Once the cold has passed I will take the bags of leaves off and put next to the plants so I can replace for the next freeze. I will also stack some bags of leaves around my water intake into the house to keep it protected. This is the first year since I moved in in 1998 that I have not even had to put the bags of leaves out. In fact the tropical perennials are still growing. I have roses blooming. After winter is over I will break the bags of leaves open and use in my garden and flower beds.

Usually by the middle to end of December I hear and see the first schools of cedar waxwings as they shrill and flock together in the winter sky. You usually hear them first and then see them as they fly together to the various berries in the trees and shrubs.

Yet though I am outside quite a bit, I have yet to hear/see any cedarwaxwings.

I am tempted to put out my tomato plants, but I know better.

[BigB0882]

You needed the bags of leaves last year? I feel like last year was even warmer with less freezes than this year.

[Kennethb]

You needed the bags of leaves last year? I feel like last year was even warmer with less freezes than this year.

Yes. There were a couple of freezes early in December. My tropical vegetation did freeze back. Though the rest of the winter was milder and I was cutting the grass by February!!!

I was talking with Mr. Buddy at the farmers market. He grows peaches which need 750 -950 of chilling hours (below 45 degrees) per year. Last year he only got 500. This year he has about 700 hours.