Texas Winter 2012-2013

[amawea]

Man. If I base winter on the activity in this forum then winter is surely over. Dead; stick a fork in it, etc.

[Texas Snowman]

It's also Super Bowl Sunday with no imminent threat!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

It's also Super Bowl Sunday with no imminent threat!

How would you fellows know that??? You are all down in your men's den with eyes glued to the t.v.

Meanwhile a weather bomb has formed over Saskatchewan headed Texas's way...........that one is called a Saskatchewan Slasher (according to our top Climatologist).

[Ntxw]

Systems ejecting from the southwest almost always gives problems for models especially ones with feedback issues like the GFS and NAM and we will have several. I'd stick to the euro even with its SW bias it's done well forecasting the MJO so I'd tend to believe it more.

Usually systems will head a little more south compared to the one before it, the first ejecting s/w will probably effect the central plains (7th-10th) then depending on how much stuff hangs back. Either that or the following will eject further south. I still like Valentines day +-. Ensembles are a bit slower than the OP models, things are fluid so the usual problems will exist (how far south it ejects, when does it go negative tilt, how much moisture return, how much cold air available etc). One jet is bad enough for the models but two is not pretty.

Also as evidenced by the crashing SOI, the Pacific is ready to fuel these systems.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is a good example of why models cannot handle this. Instead of showing the central plains ejection like it has been for days, it just hangs energy in the southwest and most of the moisture is in the southern plains and waits for the northern stream to come and eject it out through Texas. Give it till midweek.

[weatherdude1108]

So nice to wake up to the pitter patter of rain on the roof this morning! Only measured 0.02 in. But we'll take anything we can get!

[wxman57]

Both the GFS and Euro continue to forecast a big push of warmer Pacific air into western and NW Canada over the next 10 days. That would not support any significant cold surges southward to Texas.

[orangeblood]

Enjoy the next 7 days wxman57 because this Monster North American trough shown by the GFS ensembles after Valentine's Day will not be very conducive for biking. This 3 wave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere has a good chance to lock in for quite awhile so enjoy it while you can

[Portastorm]

Given the lack of quality data in the east Pacific and the fact that NOAA is flying high-level data collection missions this week ... I wouldn't trust any of the models beyond 3-4 days. That includes that 10-day forecast, wxman57. The only thing which I feel like we can count on, based namely on teleconnection signals, is a split flow and active southern stream.

[Ntxw]

The southern plains is going to be below normal from the cutting jet. If that NE to SW trough connects the whole way in NA we'll get some cold air from n-central Canada. Still a very tricky storm to be had near Valentines day, my feeling is this one deserves close watch.

Lets hope mother nature shows no love for the resident heat miser this year on the special ocassion!

[Tireman4]

The southern plains is going to be below normal from the cutting jet. If that NE to SW trough connects the whole way in NA we'll get some cold air from n-central Canada. Still a very tricky storm to be had near Valentines day, my feeling is this one deserves close watch.

Lets hope mother nature shows no love for the resident heat miser this year on the special ocassion!

May his Valentine's Day bike ride be a frosty one....

[weatherdude1108]

Granted it could change and do a 180 tomorrow, but I'm liking today's forecast from the CPC. Normal to below normal temps with normal to above normal rain for the next two weeks for most of Texas. Yes, I am VERY MUCH -removed-.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.01.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.02.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.01.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.02.gif

[wxman57]

Given the lack of quality data in the east Pacific and the fact that NOAA is flying high-level data collection missions this week ... I wouldn't trust any of the models beyond 3-4 days. That includes that 10-day forecast, wxman57. The only thing which I feel like we can count on, based namely on teleconnection signals, is a split flow and active southern stream.

Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS for Houston (extended range). Down to 25F around the 18th. Of course, that's well beyond the range that we can trust it. It's forecast such temps before and been wrong this season. I prefer to believe it's wrong this time, too.

[Portastorm]

Oh no, I believe that meteogram. You can trust that particular model run!

Seriously ... I really don't trust any of them beyond Friday of this week. The weekend storm is up for grabs and there is a lot of chaos in the models and ensembles about how it might shake out. So, while it pains me to write this, I agree with your post.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm afraid to ask what the means for my location.

[Portastorm]

Oh how I love seeing any shade of blue or turquoise on a meteogram for Austin! Even if I can't trust it.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ntxw]

Lets hope this verifies and more. Split flow is very good for consistent rain chances and we can dump the progressive nature at last next week. AO and EPO is about to leave positive territory and the MJO is hauling through phase 1 so the big indexes at least are in our favor.

[Ntxw]

I'm afraid to ask what the means for my location.

You will be warming up don't worry Ms. Screamer, Wxman57 has your back. The STJ will be too far to effect you in the short/medium range, it's a cutoff situation over the southwest into Texas. Word is the heat miser is making plans to send our summer to you in the coming months

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm afraid to ask what the means for my location.

You will be warming up don't worry Ms. Screamer, Wxman57 has your back. The STJ will be too far to effect you in the short/medium range, it's a cutoff situation over the southwest into Texas. Word is the heat miser is making plans to send our summer to you in the coming months

I until I got to the last sentence.

Now where is the smilie that is throwing up?

C'mmon that just isn't fair.......we SHARED cold with you this winter. LAST time your heat made it up here you said it was our fault for NOT sharing.

[Ntxw]

I until I got to the last sentence.

Now where is the smilie that is throwing up?

C'mmon that just isn't fair.......we SHARED cold with you this winter. LAST time your heat made it up here you said it was our fault for NOT sharing.

In all seriousness, the central plains drought could mean a potentially warmer summer for you. Suspect the death ridge from hell will likely sit over the high plains this year. Extreme drought conditions have already hit Montana which is right below you. If it spreads into the rest of the northern plains it's not a good feedback if one doesn't like it HOT.